Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Festival inflation at 20%

"A noble man compares and estimates himself by an idea which is higher than himself; and a mean man, by one lower than himself. The one produces aspiration; the other ambition, which is the way in which a vulgar man aspires."
—Marcus Aurelius (Roman, 121-180)
Word for the day
Groggy (adj)
Dazed and weakened, as from lack of sleep:
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Is there a defined policy for compensating families of the unfortunate victims of mob frenzy?
Is the compensation directly proportionate to the VVIP visits, "likes" on social media and length of coverage in media?

Festival inflation at 20%

Last week I shared some general observations made during my rendezvous with Delhi-6 (see here). Continuing the saga, I would like to share some interesting economic findings made during the 6hours tryst with the roots of Indian economy.
·         A substantial majority of the shop-keeper buyer at Sadar Bazar whole sale market for household goods were women. Most of these women buyers were from lower middle class of the economy.
An impromptu discussion with a group of five shoppers from east Delhi's resettlement areas flagged an altogether new meaning of double income families.
I now have reasons to believe that it is no longer a domain of young professionals couples working hard to climb up the socio-economic ladder faster or poor couple struggling to meet the ends. It is now an integral part of the survival kit of lower middle class. Wives, mothers and daughters (often less educated) of lower middle class workers are working hard to supplement the family income. Unfortunately, it has little to do with gender equality and more with economic compulsions. These women mostly work through "home-shops", "pavements", door-to-door sales or order received through Whatsapp networks. No protection, no security, and persistent harassment.
·         Most of the consumer goods at the Delhi's whole sale markets were "imported", including fruits, dry fruits, pulses, confectionary, decorative items, and stationary, etc. The PM's call for using local mud diyas this Diwali found no reflection here. Almost 100% decorative items, candles, and divine idols were Chinese.
·         Most traders and buyers I spoke to, confirmed that the festival demand this year is lower than the previous year. The estimates varied between marginally (5%) lower to substantially (20%) lower.
·         Contrary to the headline numbers, the "festival inflation" is in high double digits. The commodity price crash is not visible in prices of utensils, crockery, bed linen, low price sarees, decorative items (mostly rubber and plastic), cosmetics, dry fruits, sweets and confectionary, flowers, stationary, packing material etc. are mostly 10-20% more expensive as compared to last year.
·         The wage inflation is close to zero. Cycle rickshaw, coolie, tailoring, etc. charges are same as these were last Diwali. This read with the point above, might at least partly explain the rising struggle, unrest and crime rate in the lower socio-economic strata.
·         At least 50% of traders I spoke to confirmed that they have also sold through various online market places. They explained how the "discounts" offered at famous online market places are often farcical. They admitted that they have supplied to sub-standard goods or rejects to online orders. This is in particular applicable to the low price items where the "returns" are much less likely.
Overall assessment - lower household savings, persistent pressure on SME segment, rise in incidence of income inequalities, civil unrest and non-compliance.

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