Do it yourself

Friday, February 26, 2016

Indian Rail on right track

Thought for the day

"It is not enough to conquer; one must learn to seduce."

—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Calumniate (v)

To make false and malicious statements about; slander.

Malice towards none

Ramayana is perhaps the best global treatise on complete integration of human life with nature.

The Environmentalist NGOs and Secular Governments do not propagate it just because a majority of Hindus venerate it.

First random thought this morning

Remember the 1995 Hollywood hit "The American President".

The emotive and powerful speech of our HRD Minister Ms. Smriti Irani on JNU issue in the Parliament was distinctly reminiscent of the rhetorical climax of the film; especially the dialogue - "This is a time for serious people, Bob, and your fifteen minutes are up. My name is Andrew Shepherd, and I *am* the President."

I am highly impressed. My Whatsapp inbox indicates that the speech has also thrilled the a lot of people, including the prime minister.

But today is a new day. Tell me what's on the menu for the day?

Indian Rail on right track

What Suresh Prabhu did not say in his speech:

(a) Both the passenger and freight tariffs may be made dynamic and adjusted several times every year.

(b) Railways might go the airlines way in tariff structuring. Be ready for limited baggage allowance; no berth for half ticket; extra charge for bedding etc.

(c) The 5% growth in passenger and freight tariff juxtaposed to much higher growth in air traffic and CV sales suggests that business has moved from railways to road and air. So market should not get too excited about the higher CV sales and air traffic growth numbers.

For long I have been a member of the school which believes that the government should do away with the colonial practice of presenting a separate Rail Budget in the parliament.

There could be an intense debate over whether the Indian Railway should be corporatized on the lines of Telecom (BSNL and MTNL), Civil Aviation (Air India), Shipping (SCI) and Roadways (NHAI and SRTCs) or it should continue to be managed as a government department like Defence and Space Research (ISRO). However, the argument for presenting a separate Rail Budget look unconvincing and rather pertinacious, in my view.

Being a votary of abolition of the exercise itself, I have not been pre-marking 25th February in my annual calendar. The date has been a regular day for me, usually away from television.

This year however, given the poor state of financial markets, like everyone, I have also been looking towards the government with a certain degree of anticipation. So I heard the Rail Budget speech in full to find out some glimmers of hope. Honestly speaking, I am delighted and reasonably satisfied.

Many users will concur with me, that despite serious improvements in past decade, arguably, Indian Railways continues to be one of the most corrupt and inefficient institutions in the country. I would like to evaluate the Rail Budget in this background rather than getting bogged down by the tedious numbers and jargon.

I find that the minister is determined to transform the behemoth into an efficient, transparent, and service oriented institution; and he is moving rather swiftly to achieve the goals. For example consider the following:

(a) Besides bringing better and transparent accounting practices in Indian Railways, the minister has also considered new avenues for raising revenue, e.g., sale of non-core assets, revenue for allied service (advertisement, consumer services etc.) overseas borrowing etc.

(b) Serious attempts are being made to make Indian Rail competitive in terms services. Besides several initiatives to enhance passengers' travel experience, the minister has also announced some time table freight trains.

(d) Decentralization is progressing well through PPP model for rail infrastructure development, engagement of state governments in new projects, material delegation in procurement processes etc.

(e) Significant focus is being put on improving operating efficiency, e.g., by augmenting capacities in existing trains by increasing number of births, introducing double-decker trains; use of solar energy; integration with other modes of transports and supply chain.

Thursday, February 25, 2016

I want reforms. Do you?

Thought for the day

"A witty saying proves nothing."

—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Groggery (n)

A slightly disreputable barroom.

Malice towards none

Many historians have suggested that Sardar Patel once considered trading off Kashmir for Hyderabad with Pakistan after 15 August 1947.

Supposedly, some princely states like Jodhpur and Bhopal had also considered going with Pakistan.

Is it true?

First random thought this morning

Travel permissions for Lalit Modi and Vyapam scam killed the monsoon session of the parliament. ‘Intolerance debate’ and allegations over National Herald & DDCA corruption washed out the winter session. Its seems JNU arrests and Rohith Vemulla's suicide case will disrupt the budget session.

The opposition's strategy is clearly to not let the government function on one pretext or the other. And they are executing the strategy to near perfection.

The government on the other hand doesn't seems to have a defined strategy.

A cynical view is that the government's strategy is also not to let the parliament function; and it is also executing the strategy to near perfection.

I want reforms. Do you?

I have been insisting that "reform" must be distinguished from mere administrative correction. A policy measure in order to qualify as "Reform" must change the status quo materially.

Please allow me to reproduce from what I have been writing in past:

The businesses, investors and consumers need to assimilate that economic reforms do not necessarily result in more profit in the immediate term. To the contrary, economic reforms are more likely to cause pain and inconvenience in the immediate term as these involve fundamental changes in the processes and practices of doing business and consuming goods & services.

From this view point, I suggest the following 10 illustrative reform measure that may change the status quo materially. If you find these are highly idealistic, and impractical to implement, I beg to differ.

(1) To exploit the demographic dividend fully and generate demand, accelerate the wealth transfer process. Defining the upper bound of wealth and introduction of material estate duty on people above the upper bound could be one method.

(2) Transfer the power to impose direct taxes, to the local governments.

(3) Transfer the ownership of natural resources to local governments. Encourage industry and investors to partner with local governments for setting up business ventures.

(4) Introduce competition in Railways. To begin with allow point-to-point private railways for intercity travel up to 100kms.

(5) Transfer all PSUs under a listed holding company. Majority voting power in this listed holding company may be owned by Indian citizens with no individual owning more than 1%. All these companies should be professionally managed with no intervention from the government whatsoever.

(6) Allow and encourage the federal states to have bi-lateral trade, labor and resource (water, energy, logistics etc) sharing treaties.

(7) Bring the Return on Investment (ROI) for elected representatives close to Zero level, by stripping all their discretionary powers.

(8) Constitute a Clean India Regulatory Authority (CIRA). Make all elected representatives from local government level to the members of parliament accountable to this authority. Each member should be mandated to submit a quarterly return of cleanliness in their respective constituency to this authority. The authority should cause an independent audit of such certificates. A wrong certificate should disqualify the person from contesting elections for 25years.

(9) Enhance the Right to Education (RTE) to the Right to Uniform Education (RTUE).

(10) Reorganize farm sector with "collective farming", "cooperative food processing" and "national market" at the core.

NITI Ayog needs to tell the government that in past one decade it is not the farming, textile, railways, or SME but it is the telecom sector which has provided maximum incremental employment opportunities. And it happened in spite of the government.

Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Mr. Arun Jaitely, CFO, Government of India

Thought for the day

"What is tolerance? It is the consequence of humanity. We are all formed of frailty and error; let us pardon reciprocally each other's folly - that is the first law of nature."

—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Encomium (n)

A formal expression of high praise; eulogy. For example, "An encomium by the president greeted the returning hero.

Malice towards none

What makes Maharana Pratap great vs. Badshah Akbar?

First random thought this morning

The demand for quota in government jobs by mostly prosperous Jat and Patidar communities necessitates a wider debate on the issue.

By yielding to Jats' demands in Haryana, the government will open a can of worms. Jats of UP and Rajasthan, Patidars of Gujarat, Marathas of Maharashtra, Muslims of southern states and UP, et. al., may resort to violence to press their long pending demands for quota in jobs.

The easiest way to my mind is to widen the list of reserved categories to include all the communities which want to be included in the category!

Mr. Arun Jaitely, CFO, Government of India

The finance minister is like CFO of a business corporation. His job is to keep account of the receipts and expenditure of the government; manage resources necessary for executing the plans approved by the Cabinet; ensure optimum utilization of available resources; and keep adequate provision for meeting contingencies.

He is accountable to all the stakeholders, insofar as the transparency of accounts is concerned. His discretions are however limited to choosing the sources of revenue needed for executing the plans of the government.

In specific Indian context, FM has to decide how much resources to raise from (a) taxation; (b) sale of national assets; and (c) borrowing.

In taxation, a balance has to be maintained between direct and indirect taxes to keep the incidence of tax just and equitable.

Sale of national assets (mines, airwaves, PSE shares, land etc.) has to meet the criteria of sustainability, development, transparency, viability, socio-political expediency; etc. and depends heavily on the current market conditions.

Borrowing depends on consideration of fiscal discipline, servicing capacity, and market conditions. Historically, we have borrowed from domestic lenders only. However, in recent years the role of foreign lenders has been rising; the exchange rate volatility has therefore become a consideration. The FRBM Act also guides the extend of borrowing.

The importance, or otherwise, of the annual budget presentation must be seen within this framework. Although, the attention that is paid to the annual budget speech has diminished in past decade or so, it still evokes intense interest from the financial market participants. I feel it has more to do with the marketing success of business news channels rather than anything else. A number of TV shows are hosted to propagate an environment of expectation, hope and fear amongst market participants.

The anticipation, that is sometimes far beyond the realm of reality, guides the market volatility. The representatives of various interest groups and lobbyists for pressure groups demand from FM, what he has no jurisdiction to give. For example, someone asks FM to allocate more money for infrastructure spending. Whereas, this request should logically be made to the concerned ministry and departments, which shall make a plan, and get approved by the cabinet. FM will be obliged to provide resources for a plan approved by the cabinet. A defiance could see him losing his job.

I believe that it is high time that the development agenda of the government be completely separated from the budget presentation. Let budget be an accounting exercise with a reasonable degree of predictability and transparency.

Let public appraisal of the development agenda be a continuous process through regular reporting by the concerned departments and ministries.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Why LTCG be exempt from tax?

Thought for the day

"Each player must accept the cards life deals him or her: but once they are in hand, he or she alone must decide how to play the cards in order to win the game."

—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Celerity (n)

Swiftness; speed.

Malice towards none

What is a noble profession in the country today - I mean actually in practice?

First random thought this morning

A large number of people in the state of Haryana held violent protests, disturbed public life, blocked highways & railways, damaged public property, attacked police, blocked water supply, caused extreme inconvenience to the other citizens of this country. The government promises them reward in the form of reservation in government jobs.

A large group of people congregates at Golden Temple every year to commemorate the "martyrdom" of the killers of the prime minister of India. Ministers participate in the event and the state government extends police protection to the event.

A small group of students allegedly shouted anti-India slogans in a peaceful protest within the confines of a university in Delhi. Their leader is arrested on the charge of sedition.

An even smaller group of students in Hyderabad allegedly protested hanging of a terrorist, their leader was harassed to the extent that he ended his life.

Please rewind the tape - I want to hear again what Mrs. Amir Khan had said.

Why LTCG be exempt from tax?

On February 28, 2015 Shri Arun Jaitely presented his first full budget amidst great expectations. The market which was already on roll for past many months, scaled new high within three trading sessions after presentation of the budget. However, since then it has been a rather disappointing journey downhill.

This year heading into the budget presentations, the markets are badly beaten, extremely jittery and expecting little from FM. Save some minor tax concessions here and there, the market is mostly praying for a status quo.

Given the constraints like (a) the substantial pay commission and OROP payments already overdue; (b) disinvestment targets already scaled down due to poor market conditions; (c) commitment to implement food security law in FY17; (d) RBI Governor's and global rating agencies' strong urge to not compromise on fiscal discipline; (e) lower nominal economic growth leading to muted tax revenue growth; (f) political urgency to provide for social spending in view of the key state elections due in FY17 (TN, Kerala, WB, UP and Punjab) - expecting any radical proposals from FM in the budget seems unrealistic to me.

I believe, the market fully understand the dilemma of the finance minister and hence does not expect him to dole out any goodies from his hat. Save for the customary pre-budget memorandums by the trade and industry representatives, I do not see any pressure on FM from the market side.

To the contrary, to keep the spirit of its participants alive, the market has itself conjured up some events - not happening of which will make people relieved; return of long term capital gain tax on listed equities being the most prominent one.

Having observed the working of the finance ministry closely in past 21months, I am reasonably assured that both the finance minister are exceedingly sensitive to the financial markets. At this juncture, I do not expect them to do anything that will trigger a sell-off in the market.

Having said that, I think that exemption to the listed equities from LTCG (provided STT has been paid on the sell trade) is an anomaly that would need to be corrected at some point in time.

In my view, the activity of buying and selling equity shares in secondary market per se does not provide any risk capital to the underlying businesses. It just changes the beneficial owner of the business. I do not understand therefore why should someone who is actually transferring his risk, be rewarded with lower (or no) taxes?

I do not support the argument that holding a listed stock for more than one year in any way helps the economy or the markets.

In fact, to the contrary, the day traders, jobbers and market makers who provide the much needed liquidity to our shallow markets, and hence motivate risk taking, deserve serious tax incentives. Similarly, providers of unsecured debt take much higher risk and therefore deserve more tax incentives.

Monday, February 22, 2016

Nifty: Survived to live another day

Thought for the day

"It is dangerous to be right in matters on which the established authorities are wrong."

—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)

Word for the day

Autodidact (n)

A person who has learned a subject without the benefit of a teacher or formal education; a self-taught person.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

What has changed in the country since independence - For the better, and for the worst?

Nifty: Survived to live another day

The deep cracks on daily charts are yet to be filled up, but the bottom seems to have moved up to 6950 from 6770 earlier.

On weekly charts the bottom successfully tested and saved. A weekly close above 7610 will see 8200 tested soon thereafter.

A close above 7200 on Budget day will cement a midterm bottom for Nifty at 7000.

Friday, February 19, 2016

What markets really want from FM

Thought for the day

"Whatsoever is contrary to nature is contrary to reason, and whatsoever is contrary to reason is absurd."

—Baruch Spinoza (Dutch, 1632-1677)

Word for the day

Transient (adj)

Not lasting, enduring, or permanent; transitory.

Malice towards none

The constitutional right to a dignified life should include right to a dignified funeral also.

First random thought this morning

The government has successfully created a mountain out of mole, yet again.

Everyone knows that these agitations and sloganeering is an integral part of JNU culture. Nothing new. Nothing harmful. Most of these students grow up to become respectable professionals, senior bureaucrats, and administrators.

Not much evidence of any material number of JNU alumni turning out to be secessionists.

What markets really want from FM

Once there was this person who lived his life in complete dissoluteness. He loved to eat out, smoke, drink, often enjoyed late night parties and spent profusely. All was going on well, till the day his heart gave him first shock. The life suddenly changed. The sight of death triggered the transformation. Morning walk, yoga, healthy meals, early to bed and timely medicine were his life now.

Somewhat similar is the situation of many Indian corporates and banks today. The profligate capex funded by indulgent borrowing by the businesses in past 15years has severely damaged their balance sheets. Unable to bear it, most have conveniently passed the pain over to lenders.

The promoters are naturally worried that a close scrutiny by Supreme Court and RBI may set the course right by holding them accountable for their accesses.

The markets which have cherished every bit of their profligacy in the past are also naturally worried.

The government is seeking to structurally reverse the persistently negative interest rate on financial savings which in past decade have discouraged household savings, the very backbone of our economic growth. The tax incentive on savings has also become a totally ineffective tool in the current inflationary scenario. A reform here – to fix the savings rate at CPI plus one percent would make many businesses unviable.

The family businesses which have long thrived on subsidized capital from banks and financial institutions shall have to dilute their equity, should they be forced to borrow at competitive terms. Do they really want it? Similar is the case with labor reforms, tax reforms, etc.

Not many businesses seem to be welcoming lower tax rate with rationalized exemption regime.

Zero tax on long term capital gains on listed equities is another bone of contention. The mere hint of withdrawal of this exemption has made markets jittery. But to develop a vibrant debt market an encouraging start ups, brining parity in taxation of debt instruments, unlisted equity and listed equity might become necessary.

Last evening I heard some bankers and economists at a seminar. The common running idea in all formal presentations was how to revive investments without compromising fiscal discipline. But none, yes none, suggested higher taxation on businesses or the rich.

Many wanted tax sops to encourage private sector investment and higher protection to the globally uncompetitive industries facing challenges from cheaper imports. But no one explained that how businesses will be motivated to invest in new projects when the economy wide capacity utilization is at cycle lows and export demand is clouded!

I will share my thoughts on what FM should ideally be doing under the circumstances next week.

Thursday, February 18, 2016

The land of opportunities- II

Thought for the day

"Sin cannot be conceived in a natural state, but only in a civil state, where it is decreed by common consent what is good or bad."

—Baruch Spinoza (Dutch, 1632-1677)

Word for the day

Indwell

To abide within, as a guiding force, motivating principle, etc.

Malice towards none

It would be in order to remember that both Bhagat Singh (RSP) and Subhash Chandra Bose (Forward Bloc) were leftists.

Nationalism is not an exclusive domain of rightists.

First random thought this morning

As a father of two children entering their teens, I can appreciate the problems of Indian town planners much better.

You buy them new shoes, and they outgrow these before the boxes are opened. It's like you build a new road or flyover and traffic outgrows it before the construction is complete.

What is the way out? Buy one size large! Buy cheaper stuff! Tell children to wear only slippers till their growth stabilizes! Trust me nothing works.

We have tried all three options on roads - we know nothing works.

The land of opportunities- II

The latest UP chapter of the travelogue of my colleagues confirm a lot of my observations made during my previous trip to the State.

The following observations in particular are relevant for investment strategies.

(a) Though there is increasing evidence of the economic inequalities abridging. The economic policies of the successive state governments in past couple of decades (usually termed populist, regressive, unproductive, unmindful and socialist in the market jargon) have definitely resulted socio-economic inclusion of a large number of people.

While market economists may struggle to assimilate this, many businesses have already done this. Otherwise how do you explain, (i) Gillette India running a door-to-door promotion campaign for its high end Mach3 razor blades in old city area of Moradabad, traditionally inhabited by poor artisans and laborers; (ii) full house in English speaking coaching center in Badayun, charging Rs350/hour; (iii) over 100 scooties parked outside a girls' degree collage in Gonda; (iv) Zumba classes in down town Varanasi, party & banquet halls in down town Firozabad, (iv) numerous obesity clinics, gyms and slimming centers in almost all towns; (v) numerous private paid car parking plots in old city Bareilly & Agra; (vi) millions of coaching centers spread across urban and rural areas; and (vii) McDonald & Dominos fiercely competing with traditional Samosa shops in holy town of Mathura.

(b) The state has successfully revived its rich tradition of education. The aspirations are running really high. In a decade the state may overtake all other states in terms of producing professionals in all fields.

This is explained by seriously rising number of skilled youth going abroad for jobs. In top 10 urban agglomerates, it is difficult to find a lane or by-lane which does not boast of at least one boy/girl working abroad as professional. The number of semi-skilled laborers travelling to gulf is also on the rise.

UP may seriously outdo southern states or Punjab in terms of inward remittances in next decade or so.

(c) There are so many monetary incentives to send children to school in UP that it is almost impossible for parents not to send their wards to school.

(d) UP has plenty of water, arable land and farmers to supply the growing demand for vegetables and fruits. There are visible signs of farmers choosing cash crops over conventional crops. This state may well be the center of the food processing revolution in the country.

(e) The rooftop solar is spreading like fire in the state. In 5-7 years, power shortages may be history in the state.

(f) National highways passing through the state are as good as in any other state. The State highways are improving by the hour.

Also read the following

-The Land of Opportunities

-Growing like Ginger

-Uttar Pradesh – land of million Grigoryevs

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

The land of opportunities

Thought for the day

"If you want the present to be different from the past, study the past."

—Baruch Spinoza (Dutch, 1632-1677)

Word for the day

Indignant (adj)

Feeling, characterized by, or expressing strong displeasure at something considered unjust, offensive, insulting, or base.

Malice towards none

What was the nationality of the lineal descendants of "Babar - the invader", who were born and died in Hindustan?

Is there anything on record to indicate that they plundered any wealth from Hindustan to enrich a foreign land, or jeopardized the "National" interest for personal gains.

Please keep religion out of this for one moment.

First random thought this morning

I am astonished to note that Ita Nagar was listed amongst the dirtiest cities in India.

I last travelled to Arunachal Pradesh eight years ago. I found the entire State very clean and people extremely sensitive to the Nature.

I do not what is wrong here - either the city has seriously de-generated or the process of evaluation is flawed/corrupt.

The land of opportunities

The assembly elections in the state of Uttar Pradesh (UP) are one year away. However, given the critical importance of the state for BJP and also for those aspiring to put up a united opposition to BJP in 2019 general election, the State shall assume the center stage very soon.

If we go by the experience of the last elections in Bihar, the financial markets will engage in UP elections even more intensely.

If you pardon my audacity, I may say that - if we go by the experience of the last elections in Bihar, the engagement of the financial markets in UP elections may also be frivolous, superficial and unwarranted.

Some of my colleagues recently undertook an expansive tour of the state. What they have seen, makes me confident that the state is ready to assume its rightful place as the primary engine of Indian economy in next two decades or so, irrespective of the fact who is at the helm in Lucknow or New Delhi.

In my view, without bothering too much about the political process and complexities, investors may consider factoring the following facts and trends in their investment strategies.

First some widely known but still relevant statistical facts about the state:

(a) Over 16% population of India calls UP home, but UP's economy is just 8% of national economy. Accordingly, per capita income of UP residents is about half of the national average.

(b) About 30% of UP population lives below poverty line, the largest in India. Thus, the income inequalities and concentration of wealth is also higher in UP, as compared to the national averages.

(c) UP has the highest population density amongst the larger states in India, but only one fourth of its population lives in urban areas. The state has over 45mn urban dwellers, but there are only six cities with million plus population. The largest city Lucknow hosts ~3mn people. Even villages of UP are crowded as per national standard.

(d) The population of the state is younger, more productive and more literate than the national average.

(e) The share of industry and manufacturing in the state economy is less than 12%; the balance being divided equally amongst agriculture and services.

(f) UP is the largest producer of milk and sugar cane in the country and second largest producer of vegetables.

(g) UP economy has grown at a faster rate than the national average in past three years.

These statistical facts juxtaposed to our observation create some amazing investment opportunities, in my view.....to continue tomorrow

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

GVA or GDP or whatever

Thought for the day

"Peace is not an absence of war, it is a virtue, a state of mind, a disposition for benevolence, confidence, justice."

—Baruch Spinoza (Dutch, 1632-1677)

Word for the day

Calumniate (v)

To make false and malicious statements about; slander.

Malice towards none

Is Trump becoming a big deal for US markets?

First random thought this morning

The strength of the sentiment of Nationalism generally in various people

Foreign job aspirant: Inversely proportionate to the probability of getting the aspired job.

Parents of NRIs: Inversely proportionate to the affection of the respective NRI wards towards their parent.

Common man: Inversely proportionate to their exposure to the foreign land. (Exceptions: During terrorist attacks, national holidays cricket matches and major festivals)

Film Stars: Inversely proportionate to the product of the recognition they get from the local establishment and chances of their getting entry into global cinema. (Exception: During the period close to the release of their films)

NRIs: Inversely proportionate to the product of their financial stability, children affection towards them and number of days remaining in their favorite festivals.

GVA or GDP or whatever

The skepticism over veracity of economic growth data disclosed by the agencies of Indian government is rising by the day.

A relatively large number of economists feel the credibility associated with these numbers needs to be reassessed. In their view, the ground realities are showing no material change that would suggest that the economy is already back firmly on the growth path. Though most acknowledge bottoming of the down cycle; few appear trusting the numbers presented by government agencies.

In my view, the dispute over credibility of the data has two dimensions:

(a) First, the change in the method of computing the nation's economic growth perhaps has not been managed well. A combination of the factors like inadequacy of historical series and data dissemination; debate over appropriateness of the new methodology in Indian context; and resistance to change, are driving a part of the criticism.

(b) Secondly, the disaggregated data is not corroborating the aggregate numbers. The dismal monthly IIP & PMI numbers, corporate results, and rising NPA numbers do not compare with the industrial growth as reflected in the aggregate economic growth data. Similarly, falling number of tourists, falling credit growth, volume growth for telecom & insurance companies, poor state of real estate and constructions sector etc. cast doubt over services growth. Two consecutive poor monsoons, sharp fall in rural demand and ~5-6% food inflation, also do not adequately explain the agriculture sector growth

I doubt that the skepticism could be emanating more from perception rather than from knowledge of the reality.

The criticism perhaps fails in acknowledging the structural change in rural economy. The importance of farming has shrunk materially in past decade.

Overwhelmingly driven by corporate performance, large business sentiment surveys and urban consumers' confidence, it might also be unfair in underestimating the rising clout of self-enterprise and consumers beyond metropolis.

Not being an economist myself and blissfully ignorant of MS Excel working, I am totally ineligible to comment on the veracity or otherwise of the official economic growth data. But still I do have the following comments to make:

7%+ growth is indubitably impressive not only in the current global context, but even during good times. But it is miserably inadequate if only 20% of the population benefits from it. A 5% but more inclusive growth would be much more cherished.

The condition on the ground may not be good, but it is much better than what it was 10years or even 5years back, and improving steadily. I will therefore be happy if the current trend of change continues for another decade, regardless of how the headline number of GVA or GDP or whatever reads.