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The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report confirms what has been feared for the past few years – Indian population is peaking and Indians are getting older much ahead of the original estimates. The birth rate (number of new births in a year per 1000 population) has been declining consistently for the past many years, and the trend has accelerated post Covid (2021). The death rate (number of deaths per year for every 1000 population) has slowed down. In fact, the urban death rate has climbed after Covid. The infant mortality rate (number of new born children dying within a year, per 1000 live births) has improved materially in the past one decade, but still remains much below the global standards. Sex ratio also stays adverse for all larger states/UTs. India's total fertility rate (average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime), or TFR, slipped from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2023, below the replacement level (ratio required to keep the population lev...

  As per the recent projections made by the United Nations (UN), India may have overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world. The current population of India is projected to be 1.417bn as compared to China’s 1.412bn. Notably, China has reportedly recorded a decline in population in the year 2022, as compared to the previous year. This could possibly be due to Covid related restrictions and deaths, but there is no denial that Chinese population growth has been plateauing for a few years, forcing the government to shed its legacy ‘One Child’ policy and encouraging people to have more children. In respect of India, the official data is not available as no official Census has been conducted since 2011. The data is therefore based on various estimates and extrapolations. Interestingly, The Diplomat , reported that “India’s population has consistently been undercounted. For example, India’s last census, held in 2011, missed 27.85 million people. On the other hand...

  The “Young India” may soon begin to age. As the era of demographic dividend wanes, many new business and investment opportunities may arise. It may be the right time for investors to anticipate these opportunities and begin taking positions. Presently, India is home to the largest number of youth. With close to half of her 1.4bn people below 24yrs of age, India is like a vast reservoir of youthful energy. However, this distinction might not last for long. India is expected to become a middle aged country in next 15years and an old country by 2050 - since with the faster economic development over past three decades, India has managed a consistent decline in crude birth rate (CBR), total fertility rate (TFR) & infant mortality rate (IMR); and improved healthcare facilities, better access & improved affordability have also resulted in a consistent rise in life expectancy of an average Indian to about 70yrs. As per a 2019 report of the Technical Group on Population Projec...

 One of the few positives of Covid19 pandemic induced lockdown is the rise in birth rate in the Parsi communities. Reportedly, 61 babies were born to Parsi couple in the year 2020. The central government is motivating Parsi couple to increase their birth rate through Jiyo Parsi scheme. Regardless, it is highly unlikely that Parsi community in India may survive to see 22 nd Century, as their population continues to dwindle consistently. The fertility rate of parsi community is now close to 0.5, much below the replacement rate of 2.1, that is needed to keep the population constant. Amongst other minorities the fertility rate of Sikhs and Jains is also materially below the replacement rate as reflected in the decline in their population. I am mentioning this because of two reasons – (i) the latest popular narrative of population control law; and (ii) the fading prospects of demographic dividend of India, that has formed the basis many investment and business strategies. As per va...

A recent survey report released by the census office of India highlighted many important characteristics of the latest Indian demographics. As per the report, now more than half the population across segments (rural, urban, male, female) is above the 25yrs of age. With the steady fall in fertility rate and rise in life expectancy, the share of young population in Indian demography is declining steadily. The key highlights of the data could be listed as follows: The Sample Registration System (SRS) in India is carried out by the Office of Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India with an objective of providing reliable annual estimates of birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate and various other fertility and mortality indicators. SRS is one of the largest demographic surveys in the world covering about 8.1 million population. It serves as the main source of information on fertility and mortality both at the State and National levels. Presently two th...

Two piece of information regarding the employment condition in the country came to my notice yesterday. The first piece was encouraging. The latest data released by the Employees State Insurance Corporation says "A whopping 19.6 lakh new employees were added to the payroll of Indian companies in November 2019. This is the second highest monthly addition of new employees in the formal sector after 19.86 lacs addition in July 2019. The second piece of information was rather disturbing. As per the latest release of the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the employment rate in the country rose to 7.5% during September - December 2019 period. Reportedly, this is the highest rate of unemployment in 45 years. The unemployment has recorded consistent increase since 2017 (post demonetization). As per the CMIE data release: (a)    The unemployment in the urban areas is at 9%, much higher than the rural areas and the national average. This could b...