A recent survey report released by the census office of India
highlighted many important characteristics of the latest Indian demographics. As
per the report, now more than half the population across segments (rural,
urban, male, female) is above the 25yrs of age. With the steady fall in
fertility rate and rise in life expectancy, the share of young population in
Indian demography is declining steadily.
The key highlights of the data could be listed as follows:
- The Sample Registration System (SRS) in India is carried out by the Office of Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India with an objective of providing reliable annual estimates of birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate and various other fertility and mortality indicators. SRS is one of the largest demographic surveys in the world covering about 8.1 million population. It serves as the main source of information on fertility and mortality both at the State and National levels.
- Presently two third (66%) of India's population is in working age (15-59yrs), whereas only 8.1% population is retirement age (60+yr). Working age population is higher in urban areas (69.1%) as compared to rural areas (64.5%).
- Total fertility rate for the country is 2.2; but the urban rate (1.7) is much lower than the rural rate (2.4). At prime fertility age (25-29yrs) also the urban rate (119.1) is much lower than the rural rate (160.1).
Total Fertility Rate = he number of children who would be born
per woman (or per 1,000 women) if she/they were to pass through the
childbearing years bearing children according to a current schedule of
age-specific fertility rates. It is commonly believed that a total fertility
rate of 2.1 is ideal. If this rate is maintained for sufficiently long period,
each generation will exactly replace itself. A lower rate will result in
decline in population over a period. Italy (1.47); South Korea (1.29); Poland
(1.38); etc are some of the countries facing low TFR.
- The fertility rate has shown remarkable decline with the level of education. For illiterate its is 3.0 while for literate it averages 2.1. For graduate and above it has declined to 1.7.
- Mean marriage age for the country is 22.3yr. There is not much difference between the rural marriage age (21.8yr) and Urban marriage age (23.4yr).
- Uttar Pradesh has the highest birth rate (29.3) while Kerala has the lowest birth rate (11.9). (Birth Rate = Children born per 1000 population)
- Chhattisgarh has the highest death rate (8.9) and J&K has the lowest death rate (4.5).
- MP has the highest infant mortality rate (54), while the Kerala has the lowest (7).
- Overall infant mortality rate has shown significant improvement from 2013 (40) to 2018 (32). Despite this decline, one in every 31 infants at the National level, one in every 28 infants in rural areas and one in every 43 infants in urban areas still die within one year of life.
- The sex ratio at birth has however not shown much improvement in this period. Overall sex ratio at birth has worsened from 905 (2013) to 899 (2018). Chhattisgarh has reported the highest Sex Ratio at Birth (958) while Uttarakhand has the lowest (840).
The data clearly points towards the following five things:
(i) The government,
businesses and society need to rush to reap the much talked about demographic
dividend.
(ii) The talk about a
national population control policy at this point in time is totally redundant
and could be counterproductive.
(iii) In next 10-15years we
may have significant rise in dependent population due to old age, unemployment
and skill redundancy.
(iv) The poor eastern and
central states account for the highest population below 25years of age. Whereas
the southern and western states which are relatively more developed account for the least proportion of young
population. This essentially means, we shall see some of the following
prominent trends in next 10-15years
(a) Large scale
migration of labor intensive industry from southern and western states to the
eastern and central states.
(b) Large scale
migration of skilled and semi skilled workers from eastern and central India to
the other parts.
(c) Relatively much
higher rate of investment, savings, infrastructure development, urbanization,
industrialization and economic growth in the eastern and central states as
compared to the richer southern and western states.
(d) Eastern and
central states gaining significant clout in the national politics. At present
the relatively poor eastern and central states send the largest contingent to
the parliament, but the power is mostly exercised by the relatively richer
western and southern states.
(v) Failure to materially
increase investments in the development and growth of the young but poor
eastern states immediately may push Indian economy permanently into lower
middle class orbit.
You can see entire SRS report
here https://censusindia.gov.in/Vital_Statistics/SRS_Report_2018/SRS_Statistical_Report_2018.pdf
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