One of the few positives of Covid19 pandemic induced lockdown is the rise in birth rate in the Parsi communities. Reportedly, 61 babies were born to Parsi couple in the year 2020. The central government is motivating Parsi couple to increase their birth rate through Jiyo Parsi scheme. Regardless, it is highly unlikely that Parsi community in India may survive to see 22nd Century, as their population continues to dwindle consistently. The fertility rate of parsi community is now close to 0.5, much below the replacement rate of 2.1, that is needed to keep the population constant. Amongst other minorities the fertility rate of Sikhs and Jains is also materially below the replacement rate as reflected in the decline in their population.
I am mentioning this because of two reasons – (i) the latest
popular narrative of population control law; and (ii) the fading prospects of
demographic dividend of India, that has formed the basis many investment and business
strategies.
As per various estimates, the fertility rate of India has
already fallen to 2.1 in 2020 from 4.5 in 1981. The replacement rate in India
could be 2.2 (against international standard of 2.1) due to still high child
mortality rate, the present fertility rate. Which means the population growth
rate of India may have already peaked, or may peak in next 4-5years. The other
things remaining the same, the youth character of Indian demography may begin
to change in 2030s and the prospects demographic dividend may exhaust in two
decades. The talk of a population control law at this stage is as ridiculous as
it could be.
The proponent of the population control law are purportedly
arguing that Muslim population is growing faster than the Hindu population
hence a law is needed to maintain the demographic balance in the population.
This contention needs to be tested with the some facts. As per
the census data of 2011, the fertility rate of Hindu women had declined from
3.2 in 2001 to 2.2 in 2011, a decline of 1.0; whereas for Muslim women it had
declined from 4.1 in 2001 to 2.7 in 2011. The decline in fertility rate in the
2001-2011 was much sharper in Muslim women as compared to Hindu women. The same
is true in case of Hindu backward classes and scheduled caste also. It is
estimated that post implementation of Right to Education Act, and a slew of
incentive schemes to promote education of minority and underprivileged girls,
the literacy rate has improved further amongst Muslim and SC girls. This will certainly
reflect in further decline in their fertility rate in 2021-22 census. The
census of 2021-22 may explode the myth about disproportionate rise in Muslim
population.
In my view, this is high time we focus on exploiting the
remaining demographic dividend and maintaining the fertility rate at
replacement ratio, rather than wasting time and energy on population control
law. We need to learn from Chinese experience, which is now incentivizing
people to produce more children.
The balance that needs to be urgently maintained is the regional
demographics. The fact is that the population in southern and western states
has already to decline. It is the North & Central India (UP, MP, Bihar,
Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh) and north east India where the population
growth is happening. These are the areas where most youth population is
located, while the most employment opportunities are happening in South and
West. This is leading to massive migration of workers from central and North
India to the South and West, leading to demographic changes in these states.
This is bound to become a cause of civil unrest sooner than later. Especially
when the delimitation exercise for parliament seats happens in 2031, the more
populous states will get disproportionately high representation in the
parliament at the expense of southern and western states. This may cause
immense resentment amongst the losing states. More states may follow the
Maharashtra example for local reservation and restriction on migrant labour.
North vs South and East vs West divide would be more harmful to India Story
than the ratio of Hindu and Muslim in the population.
Besides, as I have always been highlighting that the imbalanced
economic growth in India needs to be corrected fast by creating meaningful
employment opportunities in the most populous states; which incidentally happen
to be the poorest also.
The reverse migration of labour back to home states due to
lockdown is an opportunity that needs to be fully exploited. A strategy must be
worked out to keep this labour home, while incentivizing the industrialized
states to invest more in automation to compensate for the loss of labour.
Estimates of TFR for all religions, Hindus, and Muslims
across states (excluding Jammu & Kashmir) from Census 2011, and comparison
with Census 2001 estimates
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