India with one of the largest and youngest populations in the world is an attractive market for most countries and businesses. India is not only the largest importer of edible oil and third largest importer of crude oil; we are a significant importer of goods from small US$0.1toy to a US$200million supersonic jet. India thus offers an attractive market for most producers in the world.
As per Fortune Business Insight The global big data analytics market size was valued at $271.83 billion in 2022 & it is projected to grow @13.5% CAGR to become $745.15 billion by 2030. Compared to this, as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) report, in 2020 the global arms trade is estimated to be US$112bn (actual figures may be little higher). Clearly, data and data analytical services are emerging as one of the most product categories globally.
Obviously, most businesses and states who want to do business would be interested in data pertaining to Indian population and markets. Historically, the census conducted every ten years has provided valuable insights into the potential high growth demand areas in Indian markets. Indefinite postponement of the 2021 census by the government is therefore quite intriguing, given that the product (data) this census shall produce would be much more valuable than the cost incurred.
The census is even more critical, if we consider some very points raised by Yi Fuxian in his latest article “China and India Have Fewer People Than the UN Thinks”.
Yi argues that UN’s World Population Prospects (WPP) data about the population of India and China, relied upon by most global agencies, states and businesses, may be far from accurate. As per Yi, “India’s development indicators have improved markedly since its previous census. From 2011 to 2021, the country’s infant mortality rate fell from 44 deaths per 1,000 live births to 27. The secondary-education gross enrollment rate rose from 66% to 78%, and the mean years of schooling among adults aged 20 and older increased from 5.8 to 7.2 years. The contraceptive prevalence rate rose sharply from 54% in 2013-15 to 67% in 2017-19. Consequently, India’s fertility rate may be as low as 1.6-1.7 in 2024, with its population ranging between 1.37 to 1.39 billion, compared to the 1.44 billion projected by the UN.” Accordingly, the UN might be wrong in declaring India as the most populous country.
Yi highlights that the fertility rate of Indians living in countries such as Singapore and Malaysia etc., is similar to the Chinese population living there. Therefore, with social indicators continuing to improve at the current pace, it might be erroneous to believe that Indians will have fertility rate different from Chinese. As per Yi, it is likely that India’s fertility rate will drop below 1.2 by 2050, and its population will peak below 1.5 billion, rather than the 1.7 billion projected by the WPP. Fast-forward to the dawn of the twenty-second century, and the numbers paint an even bleaker picture. While the UN report estimates that India’s population will reach 1.5 billion by 2100, the country’s population could actually fall below a billion.”
It is important to note that “The WPP’s projections of Chinese demographic trends are even more exaggerated. For example, the 1992 WPP estimated that China’s population will reach 1.54 billion by 2025. While the 2022 report revised this figure down to 1.42 billion, the actual figure will likely be closer to 1.27 billion.”
