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Showing posts with the label Stock Price Crash

You must survive to enjoy the fruits of you labor!

As per the Hindu lunar calendar the ancestors' fortnight ( पितृपक्ष ) , will start from tomorrow. As per the ancient Hindu traditions, all Hindus are obligated to serve Brahmins (Scholars) and feed crows during this fortnight. It is widely believed that serving Brahmins and feeding crows in this fortnight pleases souls of the ancestors and thus redeems the person performing this ritual from the debt of ancestors. Hindu religious traditions also mandate that a grand feast must be organized by all Hindus within 3weeks of the death of their parents, spouse or children. In this grand feast Brahmins, Dogs, Crows and the poor are served with delicious food. Brahmins and poor are also given cloths, cash and other gifts. I am not competent enough to comment about the traditions of other religions and cultures, but I am sure similar traditions are practiced by the followers of other religions also. The anecdotal evidence that I have collected from my interactions with...

Debating the slow down - 1

The dismal GDP growth data for 1QFY20 released last Friday has fueled a multitude of debates in the country. Most of these debates could be classified in three categories, viz., 1.     Political Debate: Whether the incumbent NDA government led by PM Modi has failed in handling the economy properly? The debate encompasses a variety of issues, e.g., (i) whether demonetization and GST have impacted the growth momentum so severely that it may take many years to recuperate from the side effects; (ii) whether the government is focusing on too much on political issues ignoring the evident socio-economic concerns; (iii) whether the Narendra Modi administration has adequate talent to manage a economy in serious crisis; and (iv) whether UPA government led by Dr Manmohan Singh managed the economy well or is it due to the vacuum created by that government that the current government is trying hard to fill? The former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has acti...

Policy Paralysis vs Policy Haste

Policy Paralysis vs Policy Haste In 2014, NDA led by BJP's prime ministerial candidate Shri Narendra Modi won a huge majority in the Lok Sabha. "Policy Paralysis" of the extant UPA government led by Dr. Manmohan Singh was one of the primary planks on which NDA election campaign was built. A large majority of people, especially businessmen and capital market participants, had then celebrated the victory of NDA with great fervor. Assuming that the India's economic model based on Nehruvian Socialism (a distorted version of classical Keynesian model) will pave the way for the so called "Gujarat Model". Though not many people had clarity about what the much talked about Gujarat Model of growth is all about, and whether that template of socio-economic development could also be applied to the rest of India. Most people had expected that the new regime will at least provide a proactive, clean, responsive, accountable and business/investment friendly adm...

What do we really want?

What do we really want? To accelerate the economic growth in order to generate more employment and improve the quality of life of Indian populace, the country indubitably needs huge amount of fresh capital. Various economists, government agencies and expert committees have suggested that to attain optimum level of employment Indian economy would need to grow 8-10% CAGR for next decade or so. The capital investment required by private sector to create critical infrastructure to support 8-10% GDP growth is pegged in the range of US$10-12trn over next 10yrs. Energy sector alone may need investment of more than US$1trn over next one decade. It is well recognized fact that such kind of long term risk capital may not be available internally. Foreign investment is therefore a pre-requisite for the process of economic planning, development and growth. Any debate on path, trajectory and sustainability of growth should therefore begin with this assumption that adequate...

Miror, Mirror on the wall...who is ugliest of all

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First thought this morning The government's proposal to hike registration fee for new vehicles has met with widespread criticism. I am however not able to decipher what this criticism is about - timing of the proposal when the auto industry is struggling with poor demand and mounting inventories; the principle of sin tax being applied to the motor vehicles; or both. I distinctly recall that last winter when the air pollution levels in many cities, especially the capital Delhi, crossed the last limits, many experts have suggested steep increase in parking and registration charges to demotivate people from buying more vehicles. There have been numerous cases of young kids developing serious respiratory conditions like asthma, premature graying of hairs and problems related to eyesight. Recently, doctors in Delhi have suspected a case of lung cancer in a young lade due to air pollution in Delhi. The capital city witnesses many cases of violence including murders ...

What's bothering Indian equities - 2

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Some food for thought "A demagogue is a person with whom we disagree as to which gang should mismanage the country." —Don Marquis (American Poet, 1878-1937) Word for the day Demagogue (n) A person, especially an orator or political leader, who gains power and popularity by arousing the emotions, passions, and prejudices of the people.   First thought this morning Founder of Cafe Coffee Day (CCD) succumbed to the pressure and decided to take the extreme step. This is a sad moment for many like me who had a truly good time enjoying coffee with friends in CCD. In CCD, V. G. Siddhartha (VGS) created a brilliant institution. However, somehow I am finding the obituaries, comments and reactions from media, market participants, social media stars etc quite hypocritical. Vijay Mallya (VM), also established a brilliant institution in Kingfisher Airlines. I had really good time travelling in Kingfisher. I am sure almost ...