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India’s real GDP is expected to grow ~7.8% in the current year FY24. At this rate, India’s growth would be the fastest among all major world economies. Indubitably, it is a matter of comfort for all Indians. Investors are celebrating as markets are buoyant and asset prices are rising. However, if we juxtapose the statistics of GDP growth and infrastructure development with the following, we get a different picture. ·          India carries the highest number of people suffering from tuberculosis (TB). In the year 2022 alone, about 2.8 million new cases of TB were registered in India. Out of these 342000 reportedly died due to the disease. India is popularly termed as the TB capital of the world. ( Read here ) ·          India has over 100 million confirmed diabetes patients and 136 million pre-diabetics. the number of diabetic cases has increased by 44 percent during 2019-2023, from 70 million affected...

The Indian economy has grown 9.7% (yoy) in 1HFY23, as compared to 13.7% growth recorded in 1HFY22. Given the consensus growth forecast for FY23 is around 7%, the implied growth rate for 2HFY23 is close to 4% (yoy). Further the forecast for FY24 are veering around 6.2% (ranging from 6% to 6.4%), given the rising global slowdown hitting exports further; lagged impact of monetary tightening likely hitting in 1HFY24; investments slowing down on poor demand growth visibility and persisting high inflation further hitting domestic savings. It is therefore likely that the Indian economy might grow less than 5% for the next four quarters. This will be the period that may see a very high decibel drama in the global theatre. The current trends indicate that the monetary tightening by the US Fed and other global central bankers has already started to impact the demand and employment. The consumer demand, housing starts, and high paying jobs are showing a distinct downward trend. Similar trends...

  The former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman, Arvind Panagariya claimed that India may record a real GDP growth rate of 8% in FY23. However, there are not many who would agree with him. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a growth rate of 7% for FY23, in their latest forecast. Most professional forecasters have much lower forecast for the growth in the next few quarters. The average of professional forecasters’ projected growth of the Indian economy for 2023, as per Bloomberg, is close to 6%. In their latest forecast, Goldman Sachs Group projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.9% in calendar year 2022 and 5.9% in 2023. Morgan Stanley Research expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.8% in 2022 and 6.2%in 2023. Fidelity International expects the Indian economy to grow between 5.5 to 7% in 2023. Recent economic data has been giving mixed signals about the economy. While the domestic sector is showing resilience, the external sector continues to remain a concern. Weak external secto...

 India’s GDP grew 8.4% yoy in 2QFY22, ahead of most estimates. RBI had expected the GDP to grow 7.9% last quarter. This better than estimated growth is some relief at times when worries about worsening of Covid-19 conditions. The growth was largely driven by Agriculture (4.5%), services including construction (9.9%) and exports (19.6%). Manufacturing growth (5.5% yoy) was below estimates, dragging down the overall industry sector growth to 6.7% yoy. While all segment of services grew at a decent pace, public services and defence were the largest contributors, growing 17.4% yoy. Business sentiments are at multiyear high, but consumer sentiment is not improving. The household outlook on income is still below pre covid level. The government has done a good job in managing the fiscal conditions. Subject to the government completing the promised disinvestment, the FY22 fiscal picture may be much better than the budget estimates. The Covid management is performing very well, with...

The recently released data of country's economic growth once again highlighted that the current slowdown may not be entirely cyclical and it may have some element of structural weakness in the economy. In particular, the continued weakness in investment activities is worrisome. Also, sharp fall in nominal growth and poor growth in per capita income does not augur well for the midterm growth prospects. The latest PMI and employment data for February indicates that the slowdown continues in the current quarter also. The second advance estimate for FY20 GDP growth is now 5% (vs. 6.1% in FY19). Per capita GDP is now expected to grow at 3.9% in FY20 (vs 5.1% in FY19). In the reporting quarter (3QFY20)— The production of coal (-4.3% yoy), Crude oil (-6.2% yoy), Natural Gas (-6.6%, yoy), and Commercial vehicles (-17.3%, yoy) recorded significant contraction. Overall manufacturing activities contracted 0.3% yoy. The private consumption at 62.4% of GDP in 3QFY2...