Act before it is too late

India’s real GDP is expected to grow ~7.8% in the current year FY24. At this rate, India’s growth would be the fastest among all major world economies. Indubitably, it is a matter of comfort for all Indians. Investors are celebrating as markets are buoyant and asset prices are rising.

However, if we juxtapose the statistics of GDP growth and infrastructure development with the following, we get a different picture.

·         India carries the highest number of people suffering from tuberculosis (TB). In the year 2022 alone, about 2.8 million new cases of TB were registered in India. Out of these 342000 reportedly died due to the disease. India is popularly termed as the TB capital of the world. (Read here)

·         India has over 100 million confirmed diabetes patients and 136 million pre-diabetics. the number of diabetic cases has increased by 44 percent during 2019-2023, from 70 million affected people in 2019. (Read here)

·         Some reports have stated that one-third of the Indian population may be pre-diabetic, two-thirds population may be pre-hypertensive, and one-tenth population may be suffering from mental disorders like depression. India is also known as the diabetes capital of the world.

·         A recent report has also declared India as the cancer capital of the world, with the country experiencing the fastest increase in cancer cases. The most common cancers in order of occurrence in India are breast cancer, cervix cancer, and ovarian cancer among women. For men, the most common cases are instances of lung cancer, mouth cancer, and prostate cancer.

In 2020 India had 1.39 million cases of cancer. This number is expected to grow to 1.57 million in 2025. The median age for cancer diagnosis is 52 years for breast cancer and 59 years for lung cancer. 30% of colon cancer patients are less than 50 years of age.

·         Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have become an epidemic in India. At least 27% of deaths in India are caused by CVDs. (Read here)

·         The present total fertility rate (TFR) of India is estimated to be 1.91 (year 2021). It is well below the universally accepted replacement rate of 2.1; implying that India’s population is likely to peak in the next two decades and begin to decline. TFR is projected to decline to 1.29 by 2050 and slip further to 1.04 by 2100. (Read here)

·         As per the India Skill Report 2021 the employability quotient of Indian graduates is disappointing. Among the formally educated, employability is less than 50% across the board. About 47% of B Tech, 47% of MBA, 43% of BA, 40% of B Com, and 30% of BSc graduates had employable skills. Only 22% of MCA degree holders could be considered employable.

To me, this implies that India is losing its demographic dividend very fast and ahead of full realization. We are racing fast to become an old, depressed, and sick nation by 2050, instead of a young, vibrant, and progressive nation. There is something wrong with our development model. Celebrating GDP statistics and driving into complacency may not be a good idea. The urgent need for all stakeholders is to sit together and make radical corrections to the extant development model. For now, I do not see any hint of this in any of the election manifestos released so far.