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Showing posts with the label NITI Aayog

Policy paralysis – UPA vs NDA-2

  Continuing from yesterday…( see here ) In the enterprise world, new ideas or innovations are usually valued much higher than the ability to execute such ideas. I believe for a successful enterprise both ideation as well as execution are equally important. The question of execution would not arise if there is no idea to execute. Similarly, an idea, howsoever innovative and brilliant it is, would remain just a thought or piece of paper unless it is executed well. Nonetheless, since the idea is the starting point of any enterprise, the innovator deserves to get a relatively higher valuation. Taking this further, in the realm of politics and governance, the two key components of good governance are: (i)     Conceiving, formulating, and instituting policies that would ensure inequitable, sustainable, and accelerated socio-economic development and growth. (ii)    Execution of instituted policies through a set of structured programs, efficient delivery m...

Wait for a good entry point

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  The former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman, Arvind Panagariya claimed that India may record a real GDP growth rate of 8% in FY23. However, there are not many who would agree with him. The Reserve Bank of India has projected a growth rate of 7% for FY23, in their latest forecast. Most professional forecasters have much lower forecast for the growth in the next few quarters. The average of professional forecasters’ projected growth of the Indian economy for 2023, as per Bloomberg, is close to 6%. In their latest forecast, Goldman Sachs Group projected the Indian economy to grow at 6.9% in calendar year 2022 and 5.9% in 2023. Morgan Stanley Research expects the Indian economy to grow at 6.8% in 2022 and 6.2%in 2023. Fidelity International expects the Indian economy to grow between 5.5 to 7% in 2023. Recent economic data has been giving mixed signals about the economy. While the domestic sector is showing resilience, the external sector continues to remain a concern. Weak external secto...

Mainstreaming the gig workers

 Thankfully, the impromptu protests against the scheme for recruitment of short term soldiers in the Indian armed forces have subsided in a few days and the armed forces are reporting enthusiastic response from the youth. I see this scheme as an extension of the fast growing gig economy in the country. Most industries in the country are increasingly relying on gig workers to perform their business to maintain a lean and flexible cost structure for their enterprises. Recognizing the trend, the government has accorded legal recognition to the gig workers. The Code on Social Security, 2020, (CSS2020) that shall, in due course, replace nine extant labor laws and establish a single comprehensive legislation to extend social security benefits to all employees and workers irrespective of belonging to the organised or unorganised sector. The Code on Social Security, 2020 brings, within itself the self-employed workers, home workers, wage workers, migrant workers, the workers in the uno...

Bitcoin: Harbinger of changing times[1]

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  “The afternoon knows what the morning never suspected.”―Robert Frost In past few years, cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) have gained material importance in the global financial system. Though the character of Bitcoin (or cryptocurrencies for that matter) is still evolving and it is not certain if it will assume the character of a currency; end up just being a collectible asset like Art, wine, vintage vehicles, old coins, etc.; or just end like a bad dream. But as of now, the debate over its relevance, sustainability, desirability, etc., is intense and wide. In my view, it is a debate that will continue for many more years and no one will remain unaffected by it. Almost everyone who transacts in money or is part of the global economic system will need to deal with at some point in time. Majority of experts still skeptical A large number of prominent personalities in the field of finance, technology and economics, like Warren Buffet, Jamie Dimon, Peter Schiff, Paul Kru...

Industry and Services sector transformation agenda implemnetation still at take off stage

In the three year agenda released in 2017, NITI Aayog noted that "unemployment is the lesser of India’s problems. The more serious problem, instead, is severe underemployment. A job that one worker can perform is often performed by two or more workers. In effect, those in the workforce are employed, but they are overwhelmingly stuck in low-productivity, low-wage jobs...Therefore, what is needed is the creation of high-productivity, high-wage jobs." The action agenda therefore emphasized on increased emergence of larger, organized-sector firms that can create high paying jobs. To meet this end, promoting exports was considered a better option rather than trying to substitute imports by producing in India. The agenda paper accordingly highlighted that "A focus on the domestic market through an import-substitution strategy, however attractive it may seem, would give rise to a group of relatively small firms behind a high wall of protection. They will not on...

3yr transformation agenda - did it work?

In 2017, NITI Aayog released a three year action agenda to transform all three major sectors of economy, namely agriculture, industry and services. The agenda was supposed to be implemented over 3year period FY18-FY20 For the farm sector, the agenda highlighted that "Farmers make up nearly half of India’s workforce. Therefore, for India to flourish, its farmers and the farm economy must prosper." Accordingly, the Action Agenda outlined a strong programme for agricultural transformation, including numerous measures to raise farm productivity, bring remunerative prices to farmers, put farmers’ land to productive uses when they are not able to farm it themselves and improve the implementation of relief measures. The Draft offered an ambitious agenda for empowering the rural population through improved road and digital connectivity, access to clean energy, financial inclusion and “Housing for All.” The Draft recognized that "Enhancing agricultu...

How not to transform India

Last month the hon'ble President of India issued a very important piece of subordinated legislation titled "the National Institution for Transforming India (Staff Car Driver) Recruitment Rules, 2019" ( see here ). These rules have been issued in suppression of "the Planning Commission (Staff Car Driver) Recruitment Rules, 2010". The objective of issuing these Rules apparently is to prescribe the method of recruitment, age limit, qualifications and other matters relating to the recruitment of car drivers for the staff members of the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog). As per the rules, the entry level driver needs to be 10th pass with a valid driving license and 3yrs driving experience. Experience of serving as home guard or civil volunteer for 3yrs is desirable but not mandatory. The only disqualification prescribed is that the candidate must not have practiced bigamy, unless the Central Government is satisfied that such ma...