Vijay Kumar Gaba

It would be fair to assume that most students will leave the answer sheets blank and leave the examination hall, distraught. Some may try to test their ingenuity and offer random literary solutions to complicated problems, still hoping to score zilch. A few audacious ones may contend that being literature students, they are naturally the only genius around. These few would offer detailed literary explanations which may not make any sense to the conventional students of physics or literature and still insist that the solutions offered by them are the best. Hoping to pass with distinction, they might also take this opportunity to ridicule the students of physics and celebrate their superiority. The last category mostly includes politicians, and often politically motivated bureaucrats.

I am inclined to view the present-day global economy as the examination hall described above. Only a few of the participants (economists, bankers, administrators, politicians, regulators, traders, borrowers, lenders, consumers, producers, et. al.) seem to have much clue about what is happening around them; and only a few of them actually have a decent understanding of the problems. These people, having an understanding of the problem, unfortunately, are too busy popularizing the problem; sometimes in a hushed sound; but mostly raising the decibel to the maximum; sometimes in the secret chambers and sometimes in front of the mammoth crowds; sometimes with audacity and sometimes with jitters in their spine. They are not offering any solution; often waiting for the problems to get resolved on their own.

What matters today is to make an effort to find solutions, howsoever radical or unassimilated these may seem. We need to administer a sense of calm to the stressed nerves of the common people, who are finding the current conditions unfairly severe to them.

Finding solutions

“For indeed any city, however small, is in fact divided into two, one the city of the poor, the other of the rich; these are at war with one another; and in either there are many smaller divisions, and you would be altogether beside the mark if you treated them all as a single State.”

In my view, most of the problems being presently highlighted may just be the symptom of the problem and not the problem in itself. In finding solutions, we would need to focus on the underlying problems and not merely the manifest symptoms.

For example, in an electoral democracy, the child of a politician contesting and winning an election should not be a problem. After all, it is the people who have elected such a child to public office, just like anyone else. Especially when no one is complaining about poll rigging etc. The true problem here is unequal opportunity. And this problem is not limited to politics but to every sphere of life - education, law, medicine, art, business, religion, etc.

All those complaining about the dynasty in politics fail to provide a solution because they are scared of addressing the underlying problem, which pervades deep into our personal and social lives.

In the past 10-11 years, I have made multiple attempts to understand the problems that have been ailing Indian society and therefore the Indian economy. From the experience I gained through wandering across the vast landscapes and meeting thousands of common people in the hinterlands, I have earned some understanding of the problems, I mean rhetoric apart. Moreover, since I enjoy the advantage of not being a formal student of economics, statistics, finance, politics, or sociology - I enjoy the liberty to assess the problems from a commonsense viewpoint and devise solutions that do not necessarily conform to the established conventions.

Since I have written on these issues frequently and consistently, my old readers may find the presentation that follows in the next few days repetitive. However, I still find this exercise worth doing as it reinforces my commitment and faith in the great India story.

I must emphasize that this is to initiate a larger debate on the desirable social, political, and economic order for the country. I have been accumulating thoughts on this for the past ten years. The readers may pick whatever they like, debate it, improve it, and introduce it back in the stream. It is important to clarify that I do not claim any proprietary rights over these thoughts. I claim to have liberally and unabashedly plagiarized the thoughts of various common and eminent people; published wisdom; and my own experiences.

…to continue

Also read

Battle Ground 2024 - Forces are aligned

Battle Ground 2024 - The Narrative and Rhetoric

Battle Ground 2024 – The Problems

The political forces of all hues and colors have set out to join the battle for supremacy in 2024. Most non-political forces have also declared allegiance to the two primary alliances. There are few yet to join any of the main groupings; maybe they are waiting for some assurances about their roles during and after the battle. However, one thing appears certain – this battle is like the battle of Mahabharata, in which staying neutral is not an option.

The narrative and rhetoric

Both alliances are trying to set a narrative to influence the voters in preparation for the battle. As usual, the narratives are based on rhetoric and the promise of a better future. On the basis of several official statements, promotion campaigns, and media reports I decipher the following narratives and rhetoric to support these.

The NDA narrative could be briefly explained as – “Under the brilliant leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India is progressing fast to become a major global economic and strategic force; obliterating the decades of poor performance. Prime Minister has worked hard to end nepotism, corruption, & minority appeasement; and is putting India on the path to becoming an economically developed and socially just society. The opposition alliance on the other hand is a motley group of irrelevant political forces lacking any credible leadership that can match the charisma of prime minister Modi.”

The rhetoric to promote this narrative includes:

·         Prime Minister Modi is the most popular and charismatic leader in modern India.

·         The size of the Indian economy has grown exponentially in the past nine years of the NDA regime. Improvement in India’s global GDP rank to number five; the sharp acceleration in GST and Income Tax collection, and strong GDP growth despite a global slowdown are cited as key achievements of the incumbent government.

·         The stature of India has grown to unprecedented levels under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi. The successful Covid Vaccine diplomacy

·         Social schemes like Support money to farmers; Free food to 800 million citizens; Health Insurance for all BPL families etc. have transformed the lives of the majority of the population.

·         Infrastructure capacities have been built at an unprecedented pace in the past nine years. In particular, the construction of new highways and airports, expansion and electrification of the railway network, the introduction of faster and better trains, etc. are cited to highlight the achievements.

·         Abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, the Construction of a grand Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the beginning of the process of introduction of a Uniform Civil Code; and accelerated enforcement action on corrupt, etc. are cited to highlight the strong delivery performance of the incumbent government.

The I.N.D.I.A narrative could be briefly explained as - “Prime Minister Modi is leading a totally corrupt, divisive, opaque, oppressive, and undemocratic government. A few ‘friends’ of the prime minister have been favored to the detriment of the national interest. The society has been deeply divided on the basis of religion and caste. There is no transparency in the operations of the government. The leadership is misusing the state enforcement agencies to oppress the opponents. The spirit of federalism has been compromised as resource flow to the states being government by non-NDA parties is constricted and the existence of many of these governments is consistently threatened. Hence, the NDA alliance is not conducive to the very idea of INDIA.”

The rhetoric to promote this narrative includes:

·         The meteoric rise of certain industrial groups, considered close to the NDA leadership in the past nine years.

·         The country has witnessed a significant rise in communal tension in the past nine years. The secessionist forces have gathered strength in the past nine years.

·         Many duly elected state governments have been displaced using unfair means.

·         The government has miserably failed to deliver on its promise of inclusive growth as inequalities have risen sharply in recent years.

·         The government mismanaged the Covid-19 pandemic.

·         The government has mismanaged the price (inflation) situation in the country thus adversely affecting the poor people most. Besides, the government has failed to deliver on the promise of providing employment.

·         The NDA has inducted a large number of opposition leaders it has been accusing of corruption. It has threatened opposition leaders and parties of enforcement action to gain their support.

·         The government has compromised national security, allowing China to intrude in the Indian territories.

·         The government has been opaque in many important matters like electoral bonds, PM Cares Fund, Rafael Deal, etc.

·         The government lacks federal spirit.

·         The government has not only failed to protect women but has also harbored many accused of abusing women. The rise in crime against women and communal violence has undermined the global reputation of India.

It is obvious that the narrative is built around the problems being faced by the country. The most unfortunate part is that no one is bothering to offer any solution. We have not heard much about the solutions. For example, almost every citizen of the country is aware of the inflation problem. No one needs to be told about this problem. What they want to know is how this problem would be resolved.

In the subsequent posts, I shall list the problems that need to be resolved and also suggest some solutions.

The election carnival in fact begins six months early with some key states holding elections for their respective state legislative assemblies. Historically, the correlation between the results of state assembly elections and the subsequent general elections has not been significant. For example, in 2018, the ruling NDA lost all four state elections (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana) but went on to win the 2019 general election with a huge majority. Regardless, these elections would be contested and watched keenly.

A large majority of the population in India mostly depends on government policies for their basic survival needs like food, education, healthcare, etc. It is, therefore, natural that elections attract keen interest from the people. The political parties do their best to present an agenda that would appeal to the immediate needs, desires, and/or aspirations of people, in their endeavor to influence voting preferences of the electorates. On the flip side, a part of the population, which does not avail of direct public benefits like free food, education, medicine, old age pension etc., is seen to be avoiding active participation in the election process. This makes the voting percentages low – ranging between 55-65%.

In the forthcoming elections, ideally, the voters’ preferences ought to be influenced primarily by—

1.    Comparative evaluation of the ten-year (2004-2014) performance of the Dr. Manmohan Singh led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government with the ten-year (2014-2024) performance of the incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA);

2.    Agenda for the 2024-2029 terms presented by the incumbent and the challenger; and

3.    Confidence in the capability of the incumbent and the challengers to deliver on their respective promises.

In practice, however, it is seen that the voters’ decisions are often influenced by the latest popular narrative and rhetoric. Many a time, the strongest narrative and loudest rhetoric win, regardless of the actual performance, vision, programs, and capabilities to deliver.

In preparation of the battle for power in 2024, the battle lines have been drawn. As per the latest reports, 38 political parties have joined hands to contest 2024 general elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP); while 26 political parties have come together to form a new alliance christened the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.). Apparently, the new alliance shall be contesting the 2024 elections under collective leadership and a common agenda.

In the course of this week, I shall share my views on the agenda, narrative, and rhetoric that may be used to influence the voters’ preferences by the two sides; and how the smaller parties who have not yet aligned with the two main groupings may influence the final outcome.