In about ten months from now, Indian citizens will vote to elect a government that will govern the country for the next five years. The general elections that would likely be held during March-May 2024 are widely recognized as the largest carnival of democracy in the world. About one billion voters would be eligible to exercise their franchise in 2024. Even a 60% participation would mean 600 million voters casting their vote; more than 4x the number of eligible voters cast in the 2019 US elections.
The election carnival in fact begins six months early with some key states holding elections for their respective state legislative assemblies. Historically, the correlation between the results of state assembly elections and the subsequent general elections has not been significant. For example, in 2018, the ruling NDA lost all four state elections (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana) but went on to win the 2019 general election with a huge majority. Regardless, these elections would be contested and watched keenly.
A large majority of the population in India mostly depends on government policies for their basic survival needs like food, education, healthcare, etc. It is, therefore, natural that elections attract keen interest from the people. The political parties do their best to present an agenda that would appeal to the immediate needs, desires, and/or aspirations of people, in their endeavor to influence voting preferences of the electorates. On the flip side, a part of the population, which does not avail of direct public benefits like free food, education, medicine, old age pension etc., is seen to be avoiding active participation in the election process. This makes the voting percentages low – ranging between 55-65%.
In the forthcoming elections, ideally, the voters’ preferences ought to be influenced primarily by—
1. Comparative evaluation of the ten-year (2004-2014) performance of the Dr. Manmohan Singh led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government with the ten-year (2014-2024) performance of the incumbent prime minister Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance (NDA);
2. Agenda for the 2024-2029 terms presented by the incumbent and the challenger; and
3. Confidence in the capability of the incumbent and the challengers to deliver on their respective promises.
In practice, however, it is seen that the voters’ decisions are often influenced by the latest popular narrative and rhetoric. Many a time, the strongest narrative and loudest rhetoric win, regardless of the actual performance, vision, programs, and capabilities to deliver.
In preparation of the battle for power in 2024, the battle lines have been drawn. As per the latest reports, 38 political parties have joined hands to contest 2024 general elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP); while 26 political parties have come together to form a new alliance christened the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.). Apparently, the new alliance shall be contesting the 2024 elections under collective leadership and a common agenda.
In the course of this week, I shall share my views on the agenda, narrative, and rhetoric that may be used to influence the voters’ preferences by the two sides; and how the smaller parties who have not yet aligned with the two main groupings may influence the final outcome.
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