Friday, July 5, 2019

Union Budget FY20 - Cocktail of Gandhi, Marx and Adam Smith



Union Budget FY20 - Cocktail of Gandhi, Marx and Adam Smith
The Union Finance Minister of India presented Union Budget for FY20 today in the parliament. The budget was presented in the light of the following:
(a)   Overwhelming mandate received by the BJP led NDA in the general elections for 17th Lok Sabha 6weeks ago. The mandate was underpinned by promises to (i) double farmers' income in 3yrs by making huge investment in farm sector; and (ii) create employment opportunities by ensuring high growth through massive investment infrastructure sector and making India an industrial hub for the global economy.
(b)   Marked slowdown in economic activity over past few quarters, characterized inter alia by (i) poor GDP growth especially in manufacturing; (ii) poor corporate earnings; (iii) subpar GST and direct tax collections; (iv) probability of a subpar monsoon; and (v) strong global headwinds to growth reflected in worsening current account deficit. This limits the scope for any meaningful fiscal stimulus.
(c)    High expectations of radical reform agenda in view of near absolute majority for the government in both the houses of the Parliament.
(d)   Urgent need to raise long term sustainable resources to fund the ambitious growth plans.
(e)    Substantial monetary stimulus already in place through easing of rates, bond purchases through OMO and USD purchases under currency swap program
(f)    The interim budget already presented on 1 February 2019.
 
Key observations
Big ideas
The following ideas presented in the budget are noteworthy:
  • Mega Manufacturing Park
  • Study in India
  • National grids for highways, power, gas and water
  • Development/Deepening of market for corporate bonds and CDS
  • PPP in building Railways infrastructure and delivery of passenger freight services
  • Promotion of organized rental housing
  • Self reliance in aviation with domestic aircraft leasing and MRO infrastructure
  • Use of big data for improving compliance (pre filled It returns etc.)
  • Incentives for Electric Vehicles
  • Divestment of land holdings of CPSEs
  • Creation of payment platform for MSMEs to enable filing of bills and payment thereof on the platform itself
  • Commercialization of space capabilities.
Key announcements relating to Capital Markets
1.    To "consider" raising minimum public shareholding of listed companies to 35%.
2.    Proposal to rationalize and streamline the existing Know Your Customer (KYC) norms for FPIs to make it more investor friendly.
3.    Proposal to set up a "Social Stock Exchange" to facilitate fund raising and listing of social enterprises and voluntary organizations.
4.    Interoperability of NSDL/CSDL with RBI depository to facilitate retail participation in government securities.
5.    Consultation for further opening of FDI in aviation, media and insurance sector. 100% FDI to be permitted for insurance intermediaries. Proposal to ease local sourcing norms for FDI in Single Brand Retail sector.
6.    FPI limits in companies enhanced to sector limits with option to companies to set a lower limit for themselves. Proposal to merge NRI-Portfolio Investment Scheme Route with the Foreign Portfolio Investment Route to provide seamless market access to NRIs.
7.    Rs700bn additional capital for PSU Banks.
8.    Proposal to provide one time six months' partial credit guarantee to Public Sector Banks for first loss of up to 10% in case of high-rated pooled assets of financially sound NBFCs.
9.    HFCs to be regulated by RBI henceforth.
10.  ETFs to be considered at par with ELSS.
11.  Disinvestment target raised to Rs1.05trn.
12.  Taxation of buy back of shares by listed firms to be at par with unlisted firms and dividend payments.
Tax proposals
Personal income tax
1.    No change in rate for personal income tax, except the following-
Surcharge on personal income tax hiked -
(i)    In cases where taxable income is more than Rs2cr 25% from 15% earlier; and
(ii)   In cases where taxable income is more than Rs5cr to 37% from 15% earlier.
Marginal relief will be provided in both cases.
2.    Filing IT return made mandatory in following cases, even if the total income is below the taxable limits:
(i)  Deposit of cash in current account exceeds Rs1cr in a year; or
(ii) Foreign travel expense on himself or any other person exceeds Rs2lac in a year; or
(iii)            Charges for electricity paid for himself or any other person exceed Rs1lac in a year; or
(iv)            fulfils such other prescribed conditions, as may be prescribed.
3.    Section 80EEB introduce to all deduction of upto Rs1,50,000 on loan taken to purchase an Electric Vehicle (EV). Only one EV per assessee eligible. Loan taken between 1-4-2019 to 31-3-2023 eleigible.
4.    Section 80EEA inserted to provide a deduction of upto Rs1,50,000 in respect of loan taken in FY20 to buy an affordable house (stamp duty value upto Rs45lacs) by a person who does not own any house previously.
Corporate tax
5.    The rate of corporate tax for domestic companies whose the total turnover in FY18 was Rs450cr or less (earlier Rs250cr or less), shall be 25%. A surcharge of 7% shall be applicable for these companies. No change in rates for other companies.

Miscellaneous
6.    As per new section 194M, from 1 September 2019, all individual and HUF shall deduct TDS @5% from payments made to contractors (for personal or business purpose) if such payments exceed Rs50lakh in a year.
7.    Taxes on gifts of money or property paid to a resident outside India shall be payable in India for any gift made on or after 5 July 2019.
8.    To claim benefit of rollover of exemption from capital gains tax on investment in specified assets like house, bonds etc., filing IT return would be necessary from AY21.
9.    A person who has not been allotted PAN but possesses an Aadhar Number, can quote Aadhar number for specified transactions. Such person will be allotted PAN in prescribed manner. A person having both PAN and Aadhar, can quote any of the two numbers.
10.  TDS @2% applicable wef 1 September 2019 if the cash withdrawal by any person from banks, including cooperative bank, exceed Rs1cr in a year.
11.  From 1 November 2019, all persons carrying on any business whose annual turnover or gross receipts exceeds Rs50cr in a year, must allow payments through electronics means, besides other modes of payments. A penalty of Rs5000/day prescribed for defaults.
12.  Deposit taking NBFCs and systemically important NBFCs brought under ambit of Section 43D to allow them recognize interest on bad debts on receipt basis.
13.  Section 194LC amended to exempt INR denominated bonds issued overseas from TDS requirement.
14.  Withdrawal of upto 60% (earlier 40%) of corpus from NPS account at the time of closer or opting out to be exempt from tax.
15.  Section 80CCD exemption limit for central government employees increased to 14% (10% earlier).
16.  Contribution to Tier II account of the pension scheme by central government employees included u/s 80C.
17.  CPSE ETF eligible for concessional rate of tax on STCG.
18.  TDS on taxable portion of life insurance payments now to be 5% of income (Total Payment-Premium received) instead of 1% of gross payments.
19.  From 1 September 2019, STT on exercise of option to be calculated on difference between the strike price and settlement price. Earlier STT was payable on settlement price.
20.  Import duty for precious metals increased to 12.5%.
21.  Rs 1 additional cess on petrol and diesel to fund EV initiatives.
 
Conclusion - 6/10
Being the first budget for the current term of the government, the finance minister has tried to touch almost all lives in her maiden budget. Although most of it is statement of intent, and very little specifics, the direction of the policy seems to be consistent with the stated objectives of achieving higher growth with social justice.
The finance minister has tried to find equilibrium between Gandhi (Socialism), Marx (rich pay for the poor) and Adam Smith (laissez-faire). It's a tight rope walk, and only time will tell the success or otherwise of the endeavor. All previous attempt of bringing the triumvirate had mostly failed though.
Many new ideas have been introduced through this budget. If implemented promptly these ideas could potentially transform the entire growth and development paradigm of India by making growth faster, sustainable and equitable. However, given the past track record it would be prudent to wait and watch how these ideas are given physical shape.
The "super rich" tax may seem an irritant initially, just like the LTCG tax introduced last year. Though it may not be totally unjustified, given the lowering of corporate tax rates, there could have been a better way to raise revenue contribution from the super rich.
The proposal to hike public shareholding limit to 35% is also questionable. This is reminiscence of the George Fernandez's move to force all MNCs to dilute their holding and list in India in 1977-78. Indian economy had lost significantly due to that as companies like IBM and Coke decided to quit the country rather than diluting their holding.
Anyways, this provision will be contested strongly. Even if implemented, it may take at least 5-10years to fully implement. Pertinent to note, near full implementation of 25% minimum shareholding norm took almost a decade and still many listed PSUs are not compliant.
Higher cess on transportation fuel has also bothered markets. But it was inevitable given the higher emphasis on EV and paucity of funds to forcefully push the usage of EVs.
Insofar as market reaction following the budget presentation is concerned, it may be a knee jerk. There is nothing in the budget to suggest a disruption in current conditions. If at all there are some positives like bank recapitalization, NBFC support and more money in consumers hands.
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