Thursday, July 11, 2019

Look for opportunities, whining can wait

Some food for thought
"To be, or not to be, that is the question."
—William Shakespeare (English writer 1564-1616)
Word for the day
Donnish (adj)
Bookish; pedantic.
First thought this morning
Indian National Congress (INC), the grand old party of Indian politics, is presented with multiple opportunities post general election debacle. For example—
(i)    It has opportunity to reorganize itself as a truly democratic party that represents the ethos of Indian society and culture, the way it was originally constituted. They can elect a leader purely based on merits. Since the party is already on the floor, it does not have much to lose from here.
(ii)   NDA 2 government has disappointed middle classes and farmers alike with its maiden budget. INC can constructively build on this disappointment to create a favorable sentiment in its favor in the forthcoming assembly election in states like Maharashtra, Bihar, Haryana, Jharkhand etc. Due to marginalization of regional opposition to NDA (RJD in Bihar, NCP in Maharashtra, INLD in Haryana and JMM in Jharkhand) INC has opportunity to become a serious challenger to the ruling NDA in all these states.
(iii)  Both SP and BSP lay in total disarray in UP. BSP leadership trouble with enforcement agencies are also on the rise. The uninspiring SP leadership is bogged down by family disputes and erosion in support base. INC has the opportunity to capture the primary challenger space and build its organizational strength for 2022 assembly elections.
Rahul Gandhi vacating the party office, Sonia Gandhi not keeping well and Priyanka Gandhi having failed the entrance test, could be a blessing in disguise for INC. The opportunity is knocking hard at INC door. The question however is, who will open the door!
Chart of the day

Look for opportunities, whining can wait
Most of the market participants appear disappointed by the maiden budget of the NDA-2 government. Reactions on social media are rather uncharitable. For example consider the following few representative examples:
Besides the point, the budget might have opened a window of opportunity somewhere. The following is an illustrative list of companies having less than Rs450cr revenue, and a strong 15% + ROCE for FY18. There may be numerous such companies which will enjoy the benefit of lower tax rate of 25% fro FY20 onwards.






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