Showing posts with label Budget2019. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Budget2019. Show all posts

Friday, July 19, 2019

Use PSE for public good

Some food for thought
"I may neither choose who I would, nor refuse who I dislike; so is the will of a living daughter curbed by the will of a dead father."
—William Shakespeare (English writer 1564-1616)
Word for the day
Ideogram (n)
A written symbol that represents an idea or object directly rather than a particular word or speech sound, as a Chinese character.
 
First thought this morning
I chanced upon a twitter handle @theworldindex. It has some very interesting data about various countries in the world. Though there is no way to authenticate the data, but intuitively I can say it does not sound too off the mark in many cases. The following is some data I found interesting to note and actionable for the government.
Chart of the day
Use PSE for public good
There are hundreds of not for profit organizations that have been set by government in post independence period. These organizations are funded and managed by the state. Most of these organizations have done commendable work in the area of poverty alleviation, equality, inclusion, social justice, research & development, health, education, science & technology, business development, regional development etc.
Similarly, there are hundreds of commercial public sector undertakings owned and managed by the central or state governments. The primary objective of establishing these commercial undertakings in public sectors was to kick start the industrialization in the independent Indian state, since the British left behind an abysmal industrial infrastructure, poor private enterprise and dearth of capital. Government started with investing majorly in infrastructure and core industries like steel, power, oil & gas, cement, heavy engineering, railways, road transport, shipping, civil aviation, telecom, insurance, banking etc. Substantial investment was also made in strategically important defence equipment manufacturing and allied services. Later coal and many private banks were also nationalized. In due course the government made material investment in food supply chain (fertlizers, sugar, food distribution), consumer products, retail & wholesale trade, to achieve price stability, better availability, equitable distribution etc.
As the objectives were gradually met, in early 1990s an in-principle decision was taken to divest the stake in non-strategic undertakings in public sector. The process was begun with disinvestment in some loss making non-strategic undertakings. VSNL, CMC, Maruti, BALCO, IPCL, Hindustan Zinc, etc were sold to private sector. Stake in many profitable undertakings were diluted through public offerings and strategic sales, e.g., banks, insurance companies, MTNL, energy companies, etc.
Besides, the monopolies of the government in sectors like roads, power, telecom, oil & gas, civil aviation, ports, defence manufacturing etc. have been diluted to allow larger private participation (both domestic and international). The private sector has built adequate capacities in sectors like civil aviation, telecom, roads, power etc. to leave the role of government redundant. Most government enterprise in sectors, where free private competition is allowed, struggle to stay profitable because of their inefficient organizational structure and tedious decision making processes. There is no point letting these enterprises continue in operation, especially when the very objective of their existence has already been achieved. MTNL, BSNL, Air India, NALCO, STC, MMTC, SAIL, NBCC, NCL, RINL, Pawan Hans, SJVN, TCIL, Hindustan Paper, Hindustan Copper, Bharat Pumps, BHEL etc. are some of the examples.
In my view, it is high time that the government must constitute a High Power Council (on the lines of GST Council) comprising of representatives from all stakeholders (Political parties, state governments, employees unions etc.) to study and recommend a total overhaul of public sector enterprises in central, state and joint sectors. The Council may recommend sale, dilution, closure, asset sale, and/or change in objectives of these enterprises.
I would like to offer following suggestions in this regard:
(1)   The farm sector in India needs massive investment in technology, R&D, land reforms, training and reorganization. In that sense the situation of farm sector is very much similar to what the situation of industrialization was at the time of independence. Private capital is available but not willing to flow in farm sector due to a variety of regulatory and practical constraints. The government should kick the process of investment in farm sector. The government should acquire all farm holdings below the viable size and consolidate these into large sized farms. The respective land owners and/or and landless farmers tilling the acquired land should be employed at minimum wages plus a share in profit. The money for this venture may be raised by selling most of the industrial undertakings in the public sector, as their purpose of being in public sector has already been served.
For the larger farm holdings, the government should encourage the farmers to partner with the food processing industry on cooperative model. The factories must be taken to farms.
(2)   Companies like MTNL, BSNL, Air India, STC, MMTC etc should be converted into social organizations.
(i)    MTNL and BSNL may be merged. The work force may be rationalized or adopted in other government departments where vacancies are lying for years.
The merged entity may be mandated to provide cheap 5G data to MSME, Educational institute, tech startups in metros; and connect all villages to national digital highway. All educational institutions (primary schools to IITs/IIMs) may be connected digitally and Right to Uniform Education may be implemented through this digital platform.
(ii)   Air India may exclusively be used as feeder to the private airlines. It may bring people from smaller and far away destinations to the major hubs for onward journeys. It may be used as air ambulance service for ferrying critical patients to the major cities. It may also be used as a cheaper cargo service dedicated for Indian ecommerce ventures. A small cess of Rs50 per domestic air passenger can contribute Rs85-100billion for Air India's social programs.
(iii)  STC and MMTC have tremendous experience of operating in foreign countries. Their expertise could be used for a variety of purposes. For example, they can be sourcing and C&F agents for Indian trading startups. They can also work as foreign placement agencies for Indian workers. They can operate foreign tours for Indian travelling overseas, to save them from being cheated by unscrupulous travel agents.
(3)   The government must consider limiting the number of public sector banks to just 5, one for each region. All other banks may sold and proceeds may be used to build two large development financial institutions, one for funding large infrastructure projects and the other for funding technology innovations.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Some more evidence of recessionary pressures building up



Some food for thought
"If you have tears, prepare to shed them now."
—William Shakespeare (English writer 1564-1616)
Word for the day
Remora (n)
An obstacle, hindrance, or obstruction.
 
First thought this morning
In past two months the BJP led NDA governments have done few uncharacteristic things. That must have confused a lot of political strategists advising the opposition parties.
For example, (1) Transgender rights bill has been introduced in the parliament; (2) unprecedented high number of top bureaucrats has been arrested/suspended in corruption cases; (3) no major BJP leader has uttered the "Ram Mandir" or "Ayodhya" word post election results; (4) BJP accounted for 93% of all corporate donations in run up to the elections, still BJP has refused to concede to any demand of corporate lobby in the recent budget; (5) Women right to work at night and domestic workers' rights bills cleared by cabinet for introduction in parliament; (6) Goa government has decided to renew liquor licenses which were not renewed following the SC directive in December 2016; (7)          Anti Pakistan rhetoric has been completely killed, though there is no canvassing for peace with Pakistan too. Recent caution by the Army chief did not evoke any material response from BJP leadership; (8) Taking a lesson from its mistakes in North East, BJP is not showing any hurry in toppling Karnataka and MP governments and letting these fall under their own weight.
It is not even 3 months, and opposition parties are already perplexed. It's certainly going to be an interesting term of 5years.
Chart of the day

 
Some more evidence of recessionary pressures building up
After Yesterday's post (see here) many readers have highlighted more evidence of a recessionary undercurrent in India economy. For example-
Kotak Research in a note to its clients on Monday, commented-
"We wonder if the Indian market and ‘growth’ stocks will trade at current high multiples if the current slowdown in the Indian economy was to be more prolonged than the market’s current expectations. The Indian market has hardly seen any correction despite growing growth worries as the market has found comfort in the (1) accommodative monetary policies of major central banks, (2) lower domestic bond yields and (3) hopes of an economic recovery."
Bond yields down to post DeMo levels
Bench mark 10yr GOI bond yields have crashed to 6.35%, a level not seen since economic slowdown triggered by demonetization in winters of 2016. Such sharp fall bond yield is usually read as an indicator of recessionary tendencies.
Core inflation at 31months low
The June 2019 Core WPI inflation (manufactured products excluding food products) softened further to 0.8% in June (1.2% in May); on a sequential basis, it fell by 0.2% (-0.1% in May). Important to note that only 9 out of 22 items in manufactured products registered an increase in price in June 2019.

 
June imports down 9%
Imports to India were down ~9% yoy to USD 40.29 billion in June 2019, Many categories like pearls, precious & semi-precious stones (-23.64%), petroleum products (-13.33%), machinery, electrical & non-electrical (-9.03%), coal, coke & briquettes (-3.44%), and electronic goods (-1.66%) registered fall in imports. April-June 2019 imports are down 0.29% to USD 127.04 billion.
Business confidence at 3yr low
India’s slowing economic growth, water shortage and regulatory hurdles have taken its business sentiment in June to the lowest level since 2016, a survey by market research firm IHS Markit showed on Monday.
The aggregate of private sector companies forecasting output growth during the current year fell to 15% in June from 18% noted in February. This level was hit three years ago. Capital investment confidence in India is among the weakest of all countries for which comparable data are available, ahead of only China and the UK. The survey also found companies were concerned about potential depreciation in the rupee pushing prices for imported materials higher, lack of skilled labor, tax hikes, financial difficulties and customers increasingly insisting on discounts.
Consumer confidence down sharply
Consumer Confidence in India decreased to 97 Index Points in the third quarter of 2019 from 105 Index Points in the second quarter of 2019. Consumer Confidence in India averaged 103.35 Index Points from 2010 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 116.70 Index Points in the fourth quarter of 2010 and a record low of 88 Index Points in the third quarter of 2013.

 
Globally also, the investors and fund managers are growing increasingly concerned about the recessionary/deflationary pressures building up. As per the latest credit investors' survey of BoFAML, in July "Recession/Deflation", "Asset Bubbles" "Currency War" emerged as the fastest growing concerns of credit investors. Concerns over "Trade War", 'Geopolitical risk", eased from the levels noted in lat survey in May 2019.
Comfort for stock markets
While the businesses, employees, fiscal managers et al struggle with the recessionary fears, stock markets may be drawing some comfort from the current spate of poor economic data. The collective wisdom of market appears expecting material monetary easing and some form of fiscal stimulus to support the sagging stock prices.
Bridged gap between the bond and equity yields indicates a favorable environment developing for stock investors.