Thought for the day
"I like trying to get pregnant. I'm
not so sure about childbirth."
—George Eliot (British, 1819-1880)
Word for the day
Woolgathering (n)
Indulgence in idle fancies and in daydreaming; absentmindedness
Malice towards none
Considering the stature of the main two Presidential candidates in
the US, should the Congress consider allowing NOTA vote in the November
elections.
First random thought this morning
The recent flooding of major Indian cities and consequent traffic
snarls have led to severe criticism of public authorities. Indubitably, the
public authorities in India are less sensitive, apathetic and mostly callous -
so nothing new here.
After trekking social media for three hours, I could not find a
single criticism of citizens - who refuse to follow lanes while driving; do not
hesitate in jumping to opposite lanes in case of delay at traffic or railway
signals etc.
In my experience of driving over half a million kms in India, 70%
of jams and traffic delays are caused due to this intolerance of citizens.
Nifty:
still a long way to go
The derivative expire of July series last Thursday must have
enthused most bulls. The derivative expiry today is very encouraging for the
bulls.
At 8666, it was the third highest Nifty expiry ever; marginally
below the second highest expiry of ~8684 in Feb 2015.
After the highest expiry of 8952 in January 2015, it took 13
expiries for the Nifty to record the cycle low expiry of ~6971 in Feb 2016.
In a typical bull market it normally takes half the time to
retrace all the losses. From that view point, it will be no surprise if we see
an expiry of 8952 or more in September 2016.
In the process to recoup losses, Nifty may appear to be running
too fast and too far from the average. But from historical perspective, it
still has a long way to cover.
On past many occasions, the cycle top has between 2x to 3.41x of 200EMA on
monthly charts. At present Nifty is just 1.8x of 200EMA of 4708 on monthly
charts. Therefore on strict technical parameters the cycle top may occur
between 9400-15500 in next 3-38months.
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