Do it yourself

I have been doing market surveys during Diwali days for the past many years. Visits to various retail & wholesale markets in Delhi NCR and other nearby towns would usually provide useful insights into the latest economic conditions, consumer behaviour and consumption patterns. I could factor in these insights in my investment strategies to rebalance my portfolio in congruence with the latest socio-economic conditions. I cannot claim that my assessment of latest market conditions, as deduced from my observations and interactions with the market participants, have always been correct; though I would say that these insights provided clarity to my thoughts and enhanced my confidence in my portfolio. As usual, I have visited more than 50 retail (including shopping malls) and wholesale markets in NCR, Agra, and Jaipur in the past three weeks. What I observed this year is unprecedented. I have never been so confused in my reading of consumer behaviour. The footfalls in the market were per...

Presently, the global markets are looking jittery as the magnitude of the crises and their impact is not assessable. Besides, there is no visibility of a cohesive global plan to manage these crises, as was the case with Global Financial Crisis in 2008-09; even though these apparently regional crises have definite global repercussions. Next few months are very critical in my view. Lack of a united response could push the global economy deeper into a Stagflationary mess that can push the economic recovery process 3-4years down the lane. “The crisis of today is the joke of tomorrow” — H. G. Wells (English Author, 1866-1946) As of this morning, a number of regional economies appear struggling with some sort of crisis. The factors causing these crises are varied; and in many cases even trivial. Collectively, these regional crises appear to be clouding the global economic recovery; and threatening a protracted phase of stagflation (negative or very poor real growth). In particular, the s...

 An impromptu discussion with my friend, & favourite fund manager, yesterday was quite disconcerting. We raised some pertinent questions and tried answering those questions with even more pertinent questions; the answers though remained elusive. The discussion started from my yesterday’s note ( see here ) which highlighted that despite signs of recovery, India’s GDP may contract in 4QFY21 and may barely grow at 1% CAGR during twp year period (FY20-FY22). Also, some suspect, FY22 may also not be as good (10%+ yoy growth) as presently anticipated. Some of the questions that did not have clear answers were— ·          How could market be excited about cyclicals, especially commodities, with 1% CAGR growth over FY20-FY22? ·          If logistic constraints are leading to higher commodity prices, should investors be not worried about manufacturers who face raw material shortages, higher input cost ...

 Last weekend I did my annual festival market check. This year, besides the main markets of Delhi, I visited some local markets in predominately lower middle class areas; and some markets in rural areas of North Delhi. I managed to speak with some very large importer and traders of consumer goods; auto dealers, farmers, real estate developers and owners of leased properties. Based on my observations, interactions and information, I would like to share the following feedback with readers: ·          The overall demand situation this festival season is materially worse than the last year. It is pertinent to note that the last year was also not good per se. ·          A large importer and trader dry fruits, mainly almonds and walnuts, indicated that global dry fruit prices are down over 25-30% as compared to last year. In India despite supply disruptions due to broken logistic chain, the prices are low...