"Without stirring
abroad, One can know the whole world; Without looking out of the window One can
see the way of heaven. The further one goes The less one knows."
- Lao Tzu (Chinese5th or 6th
Century BC)
Word for the day
Temerity (n)
Reckless boldness, rashness
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards
none
What is the plan for
development of North East?
Opening 1000 good quality
budget hotels and offering 75% subsidy on airfare will do what package of
Trillion rupees will not be able to do.
Staying out of the "spit-game"
I distinctly remember visiting rural Punjab in early 1990s. The decade
old insurgency had just subsided and the life was limping back to normalcy. The
air was still filled with uncertainty and fear. Hope was inadequate in
consoling the grief struck people who straightaway got busy in collecting the
remaining pieces of their lives.
In the climate of rebuilding, the children had again started
playing in the streets. Closer to a village school, I witnessed some children
spitting on each other from a distance. Curious, I approached them to find what
are they up to. They explained that it is a popular child game in the village.
In this game children take turn to spit on each other from a defined distance
(usually 2mtr). If the spit of a child lands on the opposite party, that
opposite party has to give a 10mtr ride on his/her back to the 'winning'
player.
At the end of the game, usually all players would be dirty and
would have enjoyed ride on someone's back!
I am not sure whether that game is still played in the villages of
Punjab. But our elected representative certainly seem to be quite fond of the
game and do not mind playing it even on the floor of the Parliament.
As usual at the end of the game we will see them all dirty, mired
in the spit of each other, and smugly gratified having ridden on the back of
opponents.
As an investor I am not much worried about the politicians'
ethical standards and propriety, since as a strategy I usually avoid businesses
which are directly impacted by government policies or depend on administrative
or political patronage for growth.
In my investment strategy I am not factoring any major impetus to
growth in medium term due to reforms like GST. I also do not subscribe to
"double digit" growth potential story of India.
Regardless, I believe that ~5% growth is very much possible with
the existing regulatory and institutional framework. This sustainable growth
with improving entrepreneurial capabilities of Indian citizens, shall continue
to provide adequate investment opportunities with decent return potential.
The current match of spit-game is not likely to culminate before
Bihar assembly election to be held sometime in October.
In case NDA wins Bihar, we may see a weakened but mostly
non-cooperative opposition in winter session, as the ruling parties in next in
line (West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu) would like to prepare ground for their
re-election. However, if NDA losses Bihar, the opposition will strike with
renewed vigor and belligerence. In both cases, legislative business may
continue to suffer.
In my view, the market should therefore be more focused on
administrative business rather than expecting any breakthrough on legislative
side. Substantive legislative business if happens will be a welcome bonus.
If you are fed up of watching the spit-game, road construction
& upgrade, power transmission & distribution capacity expansion, and
modernization of public services with increased use of technology are three
areas that seems to be gaining traction and deserve your attention.
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