Thursday, August 20, 2015

Fix the priority first

"Too much sanity may be madness and the maddest of all, to see life as it is and not as it should be."
-Miguel de Cervantes (Spanish, 1547-1616)
Word for the day
Pre-prandial (n)
Before a meal, especially before dinner, e.g., pre-prandial prayer.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
The Allahabad High Court order regarding the education of children of government employees etc. is bound to ruffle many feathers.
The moot point is whether the government should take this as an opportunity to reform government run education institutions or a challenge to their authority and freedom?
Fix the priority first
A recent CRISIL report on Indian power sector has highlighted many interesting facts, besides adequately flagging the distress and pain that the sector is facing.
The intimidating data about the indebtedness of the sector and the consequent pressure on lender's asset quality is well documented and has been widely discussed. The fact of falling demand of power and consequent underutilization of installed capacity has also been in news recently.
However, what has not been discussed prominently is the issue of gap between unmet power needs and actual consumption demand.
The CRISIL report highlights that about 25% of the power produced in the country (valued at Rs850bn) is lost due to inefficiencies of the transmission and distributions system whereas the rural parts of the country face an average power cut of 6hr daily. This is when the consumption demand for power has been on average 9% lower as compared to the power availability.

In statistical terms, it is estimated that if the installed capacity of 1,65,000MW operates at 70% PLF, the entire base deficit of power would be wiped off making India a power surplus nation. However, the fact remains that millions of household in the country are still without a power connection. And even those who have a power connection consume very low amount of electricity due high cost or erratic supply.
An average Indian consumes about 1000kwh of electricity annually. This compares with appx 13000kwh for US residents and 3457kwh for China.
Under these circumstances, the conventional strategies to reform power sector may not be sufficient, in my view. The government may need to beyond the usual - hike tariff, recapitalize discoms, cut AT&C losses - this time.
In my view, to find a sustainable solution to the problem, the government should first fix the priority from the following:

  1. Revive discoms - hike tariff, renegotiate PPAs, reduce AT&C losses, etc.
  2. Protect producers - renegotiate PPAs to pay higher prices, ensure adequate fuel supply, restructure debt at favorable terms and encourage fresh investment.
  3. Protect consumers - 24x7 uninterrupted power supply to all at reasonable price.
  4. Protect lenders - allowing lenders to takeover troubled projects, renegotiate PPAs and run these projects professionally.
After fixing the priority, the government should find out what would be the best way for implementation:

  • Nationalization of troubled power projects;
  • Privatization of state owned discoms; or
  • Internationalization of power sector by completely de-regulation and participation of global players.

No comments:

Post a Comment