Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Better late than sorry!

"He who would learn to fly one day must first learn to stand and walk and run and climb and dance; one cannot fly into flying."
-Friedrich Nietzsche (German, 1844-1900)
Word for the day
Atrabilious (adj)
Gloomy; morose; melancholy; morbid.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
The political narrative in Bihar is expectedly full of humor, satire and sarcasm.
Some elite are taking it too seriously as reflection of the political standards in India.

Better late than sorry!

Every morning, newspaper report pouring of millions of dollars in Indian start ups - mostly ecommerce related. Valuation in all these cases is just a number "XYZ invested so much USD in ABC assigning it a valuation of so much US$" is the usual narrative.
Reading all these astronomical numbers accompanied by numerous "rag to riches" stories, a common man like me does obviously feel exasperated. The question "Am I missing the once in a lifetime opportunity?" keeps pestering the conscious mind incessantly.
To be precise, I feel like standing behind a large circle of crowd gathered on a busy road jumping and sweating to see what is happening inside the circle. When you join the crowd, for once it feels like you are the only one ignorant of what is going on; everyone else appears in the full know of happenings. 'Loser" is the word which first comes to the mind for self-condemnation at this point in time.
After sometime when you settle down a bit in the crowd, you try to enquire from other people, and realize that there are many who share your ignorance. The feeling suddenly changes, like the weather on hills, when more people join the crowd behind you and ask you "what happened?" You brashly feel important and enlightened, for the moment.
The usual denouncement to each episode is that the ruffled crowd disperses from the venue with numerous versions of an event that perhaps did not took place at all.
Fully knowing you have been fooled by your inquisition and excitement to join the crowd, you nonetheless take the story home and transfer your guilt to some innocuous audience.
All those who had been part of the crowd in mid 1990s (Financial sector IPOs), late 1990s and early 2000s (ICE bubble) and mid 2000s (infra, reality and credit bubble) would certainly sympathize with what I am trying to say.
However, the new blood in the market, like each earlier episode, want to experience the things first hand; even if it means burning their hands.
Most of these start ups yet have no defined revenue model. The business models are still sketchy and evolving with the market developments. They are burning cash at crazy pace without creating any asset - physical or intangible.
If my experience is any guide, at least 75% of these start ups may die prematurely.
I have written this before also. The day is not far, when the swanky offices, fancy salaries and ambitious dreams would all lay devastated and we would need a startup that would cremate the remains of the unfortunate kids. Wonder, when the job is done, who would cremate this last startup!
On my part, I am resisting hard not to join the crowd this time. I would like the crowd to disperse and assess the market conditions at peace. Would leave the bounty for the adventurous and invest in ecommerce for annuity returns after all weak players are strained out.

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