Thought for the day
“One and the same thing can at the same time be good, bad, and
indifferent, e.g., music is good to the melancholy, bad to those who mourn, and
neither good nor bad to the deaf.”
-
Baruch Spinoza
(Dutch, 1632-1677)
Word for the day
Vane (n)
A person who is readily changeable or fickle.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
L. K. Advani lost to Manmohan Singh in 2009 and to Narendra
Modi in 2013.
Why nobody has the guts to convey this to him and all those
batting for him.
Lets get back to business now
By now it is widely anticipated that Indian will have a stable
government in next few days and the economy in general will improve by the end
of current fiscal FY15. The financial markets are vividly reflecting the
buoyant sentiments of investors.
Much of the confidence is also emanating from the fact that in
general global economy, particularly developed economies are looking fairly
stable and showing distinct signs of an imminent recovery. Both the IMF and
World Bank, have forecasted the world economy to fare better in next few
quarters.
In this backdrop the new government will assume office by end of
this month. The popular discussion after polling got over on 12th
May is focused on three broad issues - (a) How many seats NDA will get on its
own? (b) Who will get which ministry in the likely NDA government? and (c) What
are the immediate economic challenges the new government will have to face?
While the debate on first two issues will get mostly settled in
next 2-3 days, the economic issue will remain alive for next few years.
Today morning, as the TV channels are just about to open a
marathon result show, I find it pertinent to reiterate my opinion on these
issues.
Insofar as the number of seats for NDA is concerned, there is
little point in guessing that at this point in time; nevertheless I would like
to reiterate that (a) I sincerely believe that Narendra Modi will lead a stable
government for at the least next five year. It is however important to note
that I will not at all be frustrated if for some reason Mr. Modi fails to make
it to 7 RCR. (See here)
On constitution of the government and portfolio allocations in
my view the key portfolios should be given to serious politicians and
statesmen, who have the ability to think beyond current conditions and into the
realm of impossibilities. I believe that induction of non-politicians in key
executive posts, including appointment of Manmohan Singh as PM and Kapil Sibal
as union minister for HRD, IT and communication has done a tremendous harm to
the country. (For more on this see here
and here)
The economic challenges before the new government are going to
be very pressing and critical. Given the humongous expectations of the
electorate, it would be imperative for the government to address at least some
of these challenges in the maiden budget itself.
Some of these challenges include price rise, industrial revival,
power generation, drinking water and issues arising out of a deficient monsoon.
As the election season winds up this weekend and investors
become inclined to listen to issue beyond politics, we shall be discussing the
economic issues and the what new government should be doing to address them.
To begin with it is
pertinent to note that as per the advance estimates the Indian economy
registered GDP growth of 4.86%, marginally higher than the 4.5% of FY13. The
country has been witness to a sharp drop in its economic growth from an average
8.2% during FY04 - FY12 to sub 5% in FY13 and FY14.
No comments:
Post a Comment