Sunday, May 11, 2014

Still no hurry

Thought for the day
“Experience has shown, and a true philosophy will always show, that a vast, perhaps the larger portion of the truth arises from the seemingly irrelevant.”
-          Edgar Allan Poe (American, 1809-1849)
Word for the day
Caprine (adj)
Of or pertaining to goats.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Why institutions like Army, and EC should be beyond criticism?
Why a traffic constable who weathers extreme heat, cold, and pollution in performance of his duties, often without any facilities, is lesser patriot than an army officer?

Still no hurry

The long drawn electoral battle will finally come to a close this week and we will hopefully get a new government by the end of this month. For many it may be a matter of comfort and closure. But to me it would mark beginning of a long, somewhat painful, process of bringing the ailing Indian economy on the path of faster growth and sustainable development.
The popular opinion (or I should say wish!) is that the Narendra Modi leads a stable development oriented government. For records, I too wish the same.
However, I will not be dismayed or frustrated if the next government is not led by Mr. Modi since I strongly believe that the core strength of Indian economy is private enterprise and prudent populace governed largely by righteous ethics. Politicians at best are supporting actors in a movie. Some of them get to kidnap and molest the heroine; while the others get a chance to save her. The roles keep switching with the director and the script.
Last weekend, I got a chance to meet some enthusiastic BJP workers in Delhi. Many of them were fully ready with list of reward they would be seeking from Mr. Modi’s government. The wishes ranged from school admissions to appointments at key public posts. None, yes no one, wanted anything good for the country.
I am sure most businessmen, students, housewives, farmers – all of them will have a wish list. And almost all of these wishes will be selfish and parochial.
Mr. Modi, assuming he occupies 7RCR by the end of this month, is certainly going to have tough time managing these stratospheric expectations.
On the side lines, Mr. Modi shedding his electoral façade, hinted that his government may actually honor the UPA’s decision to allow foreign direct investment (FDI) in supermarkets (multi-brand retail).
This should bring relief to foreign retailers, many of whom feared the worst after the BJP unambiguously stated in its manifesto that it was opposed to the decision of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance allowing foreign investment in supermarkets.
Ignoring Mr. Modi’s pragmatic discourse and indications of a progressive policy regime, some enthusiast within BJP asserted that if voted to power, it will clamp down on beef exports. These people need to be reminded that India is poised to become the No.1 beef exporting nation globally. It is no small consumer either. I feel sooner they get out of election mode, better it would be for everyone.
I am not celebrating Friday’s 3% up move in Indian equities. The move was intrinsically weak and unconvincing. Volumes were much below even 3months average. India VIX jumped over 9%. The market breadth was only marginally positive at 3 stocks gaining for every 2 losers.
As I said on Friday, I have a good positive feeling about the market over next couple of years. So, I am in no hurry to make some quick bucks. I will watch the drama from fringes entertaining myself watching studio experts trying to decipher election results.

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