Thought for the day
“The jury consist of twelve persons chosen to decide who
has the better lawyer.”
-
Robert Frost (American, 1874-1963)
Word for the day
Matrifocal (adj)
Focused or centered on the mother.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Sensex climbed 17% on 18-19th May 2009 when MMS
was re-elected as PM.
Sensex has climbed 18% since 12th September 2013
when Modi was announced BJP’s PM candidate.
So what’s the big deal?
The
party to continue as some parties face extinction
India successfully concluded the largest and longest running
general elections in world, much to the comfort of all, except perhaps UPA
allies and some traditional socialists like JDU and SP.
The Exit poll done by various agencies have confirmed our
February assessment that NDA will likely get a “working majority”
and Congress party may be decimated in terms of number of seats at least if not
vote share.
To my mind, if we accept the exit polls as correct, there are three
key take away from these elections:
(a)
Congress has been virtually eliminated from the
northern, central and eastern part of the country. It has dissipated to become
a marginal force in large states like UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Tamil
Nadu representing 40% of the Indian population. It is in serious danger of
losing the tag of the only truly national party.
The point to watch would be how Congress reinvents itself to
regain its lost glory. In 1998 Sonia reenergized the ailing Congress. This
time, she herself is not well and Rahul Gandhi has repeatedly failed to
inspire. The keen political observers would also tell you that Priyanka Gandhi,
the hitherto unused trump has turned out be a bigger disappointment.
Under the circumstances, in the absence of any recognized
national level leader outside Gandhi family, we may see more secession on lines
of Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, et al. This could be especially
true in the case of states where Congress enjoys reasonably higher vote share
but is doing consistently poorly in terms of electoral wins, e.g., UP, Madhya
Pradesh and Gujarat.
(b)
BJP appears consolidating its position
materially in the so called BIMARU states (Bihar, Jharkhand, MP, Chhattisgarh,
Rajasthan UP, Uttrakhand) and western part of the country (Gujarat, Maharashtra
and Goa). A stable performing government for five year will likely place BJP in
pre 1989 Congress shoes, thereby rendering southern states less relevant in
national government formation. The process of federalization of the country and
decentralization of power could move a few step back.
(c)
The so called religious and caste based vote
banks appear to have dissolved. This is a reflection of changing demography.
The youth of the country is certainly more interested in substantive issues
like employment and socio-economic development.
Consequently, the parties solely dependent on caste and religion
arithmetic face the threat of extinction; whereas neo-socialist like TMC, are
gaining strength. AAP also registers its presence at the national scene.
Insofar as markets are concerned, with favorable exit polls, the
party will continue till 16th at the least.
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