Do it yourself

After some exciting action post presentation of Union Budget for FY22, the benchmark indices have moved sideways with heightened intraday volatility. The broader markets have definitely outperformed suggesting some superlative returns for the investors. However, when assessed from the rout of small and midcaps in 2018 and 2019, it is clear that broader markets may not have actually yielded much return, even to the investors who have stayed put for 3year. For example, Nifty Smallcap100 index has not yielded any return for past 3years; and Nifty Midcap100 return is only slightly better than the bank deposit return since March 2018.

Notwithstanding the massive visual gains recorded by equity prices in past 12 months, the portfolio returns for most investors may have been below par.

The returns on debt part of the portfolio have been poor, with real returns being negative in many cases. For a large proportion of investors, debt part is usually equal to or more than the equity part.

Since global financial crisis (2008-09), gold has also found prominent place in asset allocation of numerous investors. The efforts of government to popularize financialization of gold through gold bonds etc., have also motivated household investors to invest in gold. For past one year, the return of gold funds is close to zero. The three year return of gold funds is less than savings bank accounts.

Regardless of the outperformance of small and midcap stocks, it is important to assimilate that usually these stocks are much smaller part of an average portfolio. Any superlative return on this part of the portfolio, may not necessarily translate in outperformance of overall portfolio.

A simplified analysis of sectoral performance of Indian equities highlights the following:

(a)   The euphoria created by the brave and revolutionary budget has not lasted much. Nifty is almost unchanged for past five weeks.

(b)   Optically, it appears that budget ignited risk appetite for growth trade. It is believed that big money rotated towards cyclical sectors like commodities, infrastructure, automobile, etc. post budget. The aggressive disinvestment agenda underlined in the budget also attracted huge interest in public sector stocks. Consequently, metals, energy, infra, PSEs, and Realty sectors have outperformed since presentation of budget. Whereas, the favorites of post lock down period, i.e., consumers, pharma and media have yielded negative return since then. IT has also underperformed YTD.

The fact is that metals are participating in a global rally (reflation trade) and may not have much correlation to budget proposals. Energy sector performance is highly skewed due to Reliance Industries performance, which is popular due to its retail and telecom ventures rather than its energy business. Infra outperformance has actually diminished post budget, as compared to past 12months performance.

Auto sector has yielded no return since budget; and financial services have actually underperformed Nifty.

(c)    Assuming that most household investors and fund managers believed in this Cyclical growth trade story and have started to rotate from the defensive and secular businesses like IT, Pharma and Consumers in post budget period and the rotation may be completed in next couple of months. I would like to wager that it will be time for outperformance of IT, Pharma and Consumers by the time monsoon hits the Mumbai coast.

(d)   Private sector banks have underperformed their public sector peers over past one year period. Much of this outperformance of PSBs has occurred post budget. Valuation gap, promise of reforms and recapitalization, improving balance sheets are some of the primary reasons for this outperformance. Watch out for any disappointment on these parameters.

Bond market is obviously not happy with the state of fiscal and macroeconomic factors. Recent sharp rise in Covid cases has also raised the specter of “relock”. Year end “adjustments” may also play some part in markets in next couple of weeks. In my view, it’s time for some extra caution rather than exuberance. Preserving wealth should be a priority at this point in time over maximizing profit.

 RBI released the 22^nd edition of its biannual Financial Stability Report (FSR) on Monday, January 11, 2021. The report highlights some key trends that could influence the financial markets in months to come. I note the following red flags raised in the report, which in my view could be relevant to my investment strategy:

Uneven and hesitant recovery, with disconnect in real activity and asset price

Economic activity has begun making a hesitant and uneven recovery from the unprecedented steep decline in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Active intervention by central banks and fiscal authorities has been able to stabilize financial markets but there are risks of spillovers, with macrofinancial implications from disconnect between certain segments of financial markets and real sector activity. In a period of continued uncertainty, this has implications for the banking sector as its balance sheet is linked with corporate and household sector vulnerabilities.

COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic disruptions have exposed some fault lines in global economy. Increased public spending (stimulus) and sharply lower revenue receipts have enlarged the fiscal deficits across geographies, aggravating global debt vulnerabilities.

The credit risk of firms and households has accentuated. This could impact corporate earnings in short term. However, the equity prices continue to reflect strong earnings growth expectations. Developments that lead to re-evaluation of corporate earnings prospects will have significant implications for global flows, going forward.

Capital flows and exchange rate volatility

A hesitant recovery in capital flows to emerging markets (EMs) began in June 2020 and picked up strongly following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines. The response of foreign investors to primary issuances from EMs has been ebullient. Anticipating the COVID-19 vaccine induced economic boost, US yields of intermediate tenors (2– and 5-year) have started edging higher. This could have implications for future portfolio flows to EMs.

EM local currency bond portfolio returns in US$ terms have been lower than local currency as well as hedged returns since early 2020 as emerging market currencies have softened against the US$. This has led to sluggishness in EM local currency bond flows even as global bond markets have been pricing in a prolonged economic slowdown and benign inflationary conditions in Europe and US. In this scenario, any significant reassessment of either growth or inflation prospects, particularly for the US, can be potentially destabilising for EM local currency bond flows and exchange rates.

Improvement in bank asset quality might be misleading

By September 2020, the banking stability indicator (BSI) showed improvement in all its five dimensions (viz., asset quality; profitability; liquidity; efficiency; and soundness) that are considered for assessing the changes in underlying financial conditions and risks relative to their position in March 2020. This improvement reflects the regulatory reliefs and standstills in asset classification mentioned earlier and hence may not reflect the true underlying configuration of risks in various dimensions.

Banks risk losing better quality customers

A sharp decline in money market rates specifically since April 2020, has opened up a significant wedge between the marginal cost of fund based lending rate (MCLR) benchmark of banks and money market rates of corresponding tenor. Expensive bank finance may lead to more credit worthy borrowers with access to money markets shifting away from bank based working capital finance. Such disintermediation of better quality borrowers from banking channels could have implications for banking sector interest income and credit risk.

Banking sector prospects to see marginal changes in 2021

In the latest systemic risk survey (SRS) of October/November 2020 about one third of the respondents opined that the prospects of the Indian banking sector are going to ‘deteriorate marginally’ in the next one year as earnings of the banking industry may be negatively impacted due to slow recovery post lockdown, lower net interest margins, elevated asset quality concerns and a possible increase in provisioning requirements. On the other hand, about one fourth of the respondents felt that the prospects are going to improve marginally.

…stress to come with a lag

Domestically, corporate funding has been cushioned by policy measures and the loan moratorium announced in the face of the pandemic, but stresses would be visible with a lag. This has implications for the banking sector as corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities are interlinked.

Macro stress tests indicate a deterioration in SCBs’ asset quality and capital buffers as regulatory forbearances get wound down.

NPA ratio of banks may see sharp rise

The stress tests indicate that the GNPA ratio of all SCBs may increase from 7.5 per cent in September 2020 to 13.5 per cent by September 2021 under the baseline scenario. If the macroeconomic environment worsens into a severe stress scenario, the ratio may escalate to 14.8 per cent. Among the bank groups, PSBs’ GNPA ratio of 9.7 per cent in September 2020 may increase to 16.2 per cent by September 2021 under the baseline scenario; the GNPA ratio of PVBs and FBs may increase from 4.6 per cent and 2.5 per cent to 7.9 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively, over the same period.

These GNPA projections are indicative of the possible economic impairment latent in banks’ portfolios, with implications for capital planning. A caveat is in order, though: considering the uncertainty regarding the unfolding economic outlook, and the extent to which regulatory dispensation under restructuring is utilised, the projected ratios are susceptible to change in a nonlinear fashion.

In light of the findings of FSR, the governor of RBI, Shaktikanta Das has cautioned the investors and financial institutions that “The disconnect between certain segments of financial markets and the real economy has been accentuating in recent times, both globally and in India” and “Stretched valuations of financial assets pose risks to financial stability. Banks and financial intermediaries need to be cognisant of these risks and spillovers in an interconnected financial system.

I take note of the above red flags and continue with my “underweight financials” strategy for 2021.