One of the several global trends that have been developing in the past decade, in particular, is the dissipation of the US dominance in the game of Lawn Tennis. The game that was dominated by US players for several decades does not have any commonly recognizable US players. The list of top 10 rank players in the ATP Men ranking has only two US names – Taylor Fritz (9) and Frances Tiafoe (10); while the rest eight are all European players. In women ranking also only two US names – Jessica Pegula (4) and Coco Gauff (7) – appear in the top 10 lists. Within Europe also, players from Eastern Europe are dominating the court, versus Germany, the UK, and France which had a significant presence in the game for decades.
It would be interesting to study if there is a correlation between losing dominance on the Tennis court and losing dominance on the mint streets (economic muscle) and battlefields (strategic power).
In the past decade, the US has ceded significant economic power to China. For example, consider the following three data points:
· The share of Yuan in global cross-border payments is inching closer to 3%.
· The share of the USD in global reserves has declined below 60% from a high of 72%, two decades ago.
· China has become the largest trade partner of almost 75% of the countries globally, within two decades of its admission to WTO.
On the technology front also, the US has been steadily losing its edge over China in the past couple of decades. In 2020, China filed 2.5x more patents than the US and was granted 50% more patents than the US. In particular, China led the patents in the field of Biotechnology and Energy. (see here)
Maybe equity investors are taking cognizance of these trends and are de-rating the US stocks. The current risk premium for US equities is the lowest since 2004.
On an unrelated note, the pattern of rains in Rajasthan has been changing noticeably for the past decade or so. As per the IMD statistics, the normal level of average rainfall in western Rajasthan has increased by 32 percent since 2010, while in eastern Rajasthan, it has increased by 14 percent. There have been frequent instances of floods in Rajasthan over the past decade.
“A 2013 research by the Max Planck Institute tried to explain and define the effects of climate change in recent years with the help of high-resolution multimodality. The average level of rainfall in west Rajasthan will increase by 20-35 percent and east Rajasthan will increase by 5-20 percent in 2020-2049, compared with 1970-1999 data.” (see more details here)
If this trend sustains, we shall see some dramatic changes in the economy, demography, and ecology of the state. Real Estate enthusiasts might want to further explore this trend.
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