"The truth. It is a
beautiful and terrible thing, and must therefore be treated with great
caution."
—J. K. Rowling (English,
1965-)
Word for the day
Logomachy (n)
A dispute about or
concerning words.
Malice towards none
Key take away from the
recent developments in Ayodhya case:
(a) Only Muslim lawyers should represent Muslim parties in the
courts.
(b) The Bench hearing cases involving people from different
communities, must comprise Judges representing all the communities involved.
Even if it means enlarging bench to 5 or 7 Judges.
First random thought this morning
In the capital city of Delhi, these days it is a common sight to see
a number of people wearing face masks. Many people have stopped going for their
morning walks. Some of the foreign tourists come to the city advised by their
governments to use face masks and take other health precautions, in view of the
poor air quality. The clinics of the city are usually full with desperate
children struggling with sore throats, running noses, fever and a variety of
allergies. The life has become hell for people suffering from respiratory
complications like asthma.
The point I am trying to make is that instead of ridiculing Sri
Lankan cricketers, it would have been better if everyone had joined them and
motivated a white mask revolution aimed at improving Delhi air.
Gujarat 2017
Once again the market talk is
overwhelming dominated by elections. Though I am very confident that politics
has almost no impact on the markets, or economy for that matter, the intensity
of discussion and surreal belief of traders in political developments is surely
distracting.
Like before, I am getting unusually
high number of requests for my assessment about the forthcoming Gujarat
election results. Though I do not find it of any utility, I did make some
efforts to make an assessment, just to honor the sentiments of my readers.
But before I say anything about Gujarat
elections, I would like to highlight that after BJP got overwhelming majority
in UP assembly elections earlier this year, four things have changed: (1)
Nitish Kumar abandoned Lalu Yadav and return to NDA fold after a hiatus of
4yrs; (2) GST got implemented; (3) Indian stock market is up about 13% (vs. 18%
rise in MSCI Emerging Market Index and ~11% in S&P500); and (4) Bitcoin,
which was used by many in India to convert unaccounted cash in wake of
demonetization in November 2016, has seen phenomenal rise in its value.
The readers may recall that UP
elections were also being discussed and worried about as a make or break even
for the PM and stock markets. But the election outcome per se has changed
nothing on the ground. I am very confident that the Gujarat elections will not
change much on the ground.
However, if I accept the popular
argument that a defeat in Gujarat will seriously affect the 2019 campaign of
BJP and strengthen the case for revival of the Congress Party, then I would
presume that a defeat for BJP in Gujarat will be a very positive event for the
economy and hence markets. I say so, because in my view, a defeat in Gujarat
will (a) completely eliminate the possibility of any more disruptive reform by
the Modi government; and (b) A BJP led government in 2019 where BJP is around
220 in Lok Sabha, would be much more inclusive and forward looking than it
presently is.
Now coming to the current
elections for the 182 seats of Gujarat assembly.
In past couple of months a number
of surveys have been done to assess the mood of Gujarati voters. The outcome
has been over-discussed on all media. In past couple of months studio experts
have offered their view on prime time TV on daily basis. Based on these surveys
and discussions, most of the media savvy population of India now has an opinion
about the outcome, i.e., BJP will win the elections, but just about it.
Over past couple of days, I
explored my phone diaries and phone contact list and made calls to all my
'contacts' in Gujarat or deeply connected with Gujarat. The 83 people I spoke
to are spread over 11 districts across South, Central and Saurashtra regions of
Gujarat, Mumbai and Delhi; and belong to diverse fields like trading, farming,
industry, politics, education, governance, politics and social sector. In my
almost 19hr endeavor, I got some useful insights into the current state of
affairs in Gujarat, that may have bearing on the election outcome....to
continue tomorrow
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