"I received free health
care."
—J. K. Rowling (English,
1965-)
Word for the day
Xanadu (n)
A place of beauty, luxury
and contentment.
Malice towards none
In case the scaremongering
by Hindi News Channels does bother you, please note that an average Indian is
likely to die much younger than an average citizen of North Korea, Nicaragua,
Bangladesh, Guatemala, Jordan, Syria, Gaza Strip, Iraq, Serbia, Libya and
Lebanon, among others.
On the world Life Expectancy
Index India stands at 163/224 place, just 4 places ahead of Pakistan.
First random thought this morning
Kapil Sibal is one of the most accomplished law professionals in
the country. His father was also an illustrated lawyer. His sons are also doing
very well as Senior Counsels. His brother had been one of the most accomplished
diplomats.
But why Mr. Sibal is important to Indian politics?
He entered Parliament first, before entering mainstream politics.
Has not motivated any social or political movement. He's not known for strongly
adhering to any particular political ideology. He's not set any commendable
standards of statesmanship, governance, ethical conduct or policy initiatives
in past two decades.
The same could be said about a majority of parliamentarians today.
But that fact does not change the argument.
Gujarat 2017 - 2
Gujarat is one of the five large
states, besides Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, in the
country where the post independence political history is clearly divided into
pre and post Congress periods.
The Congress Party dominated the
politics in TN (upto 1967), West Bengal (upto 1977), UP & Gujarat (upto
1989) and Bihar (upto 1990). But since then it has failed to even come closer
to forming a government in any of these large states. Odisha is another State
going this way.
It is pertinent to note that in
West Bengal, Gujarat and Odisha Congress has remained the principal opposition
party for most of the post Congress period, but never appeared coming close to
forming the government. The current Gujarat elections must be seen in this
context, in my view.
Anyone expecting a reversal in
this trend is mistaken. The Congress party is not an alternative to BJP in
Gujarat. A regional alternative is taking place and it may decimate the
Congress further in the coming years, just like TMC did in West Bengal, BSP did
in UP and JDU did in Bihar.
Now coming to the current
elections.
In my Discover India trip in
summer of 2013, I had travelled through Gujarat extensively and noted the
following:
"(1) The most striking observation was the huge
socio-economic disparities especially in semi-urban and rural areas.
People suggested that a large
part of prosperity in past two decades has come primarily from two
sources
(a) economic boom and bust in developed
world that has seen substantial rise in remittances from prosperous overseas
Gujarati community; and (b) Narmada water that has resulted in higher
agriculture growth and astronomical rise in land prices.
Consequently, it has not led to
commensurate employment growth and therefore a large part of the population has
not participated in the growth.
(2) However, the real surprise was that the rising disparities in
Gujarat are motivating the underprivileged people to do well, unlike Karnataka
and Maharashtra where it is resulting in disillusionment and unrest.
(3) Due to enterprising spirit, the household leverage, especially
amongst middle and lower middle class is high in Gujarat. “Cash lending” market
is vibrant and exploitive.
(4) Most in Rural areas, believed that their Chief Minister is
blessed. More than two third believed that the change in weather pattern (more
rains, less dust storms) is due to CM only. So much so for the “Gujarat
Economic Model”! Exit of Modi from Gujarat may not be seen favorably by rural
voters.
(5) I discovered that alcohol business in the state is managed by one
of the best supply chains in the country. Global universities which found
Mumbai Dabba wala model interesting would be surprised by this, perhaps one of
the largest undercover supply chains in the world. RBI trying to curb gold
import may also take a lesson from this.
(6) The communal divide is deep in almost all areas. Contrary to
popular perception, people believe that but for Modi, the state would have had
seen many more riots."
Four years later, many things
seems to have changed. The most notable being the following:
(A) The economic disparities have risen even more sharply in past four
years since (a) the farm prices have not risen adequately; (b) real estate market
has collapsed in many cities leading to material rise in debt burden on
neo-entrepreneurs.
(B) The cash lending market has contracted materially in past one
year. This has compounded the problem of small businessmen who were dependent
on this source of funding for working capital finance.
(C) Anandi Benand Vijay Rupani have been uninspiring leaders and have
distanced the rural and tribal population from BJP. This segment of population
feels departure of Modi has brought misfortune to them in form of poor crop
yields and floods.
(D) Gujarat had been divided on religious lines, unlike the
neighboring Rajasthan which is mostly divided on caste lines. However, for the
first time we see caste based fissures appearing in Gujarati society.
This has diluted the religion
based appeal of BJP. This highlights the fallacy in the Congress strategy,
which is trying to appeal voters on religious lines. They have clearly read the
voters wrong and ten years too late in taking the soft Hindutava line.
(E) The new automobile center that has developed fast in and around
Sanand, has not benefitted poor and lower middle class Gujaratis. These plants
are mostly owned by Non-Gujaratis and employ many people from outside. Besides
helping the local land owners, it has not benefitted a larger section of the
society.
(F) The current generation of middle class Gujaratis is not skilled
enough to take jobs outside their family domains. Most of them had entered
their family businesses quite early or became "real estate
developers", most of which are not doing well. The debt levels are
distressing.
(G) The recovery in western economies has actually slowed the inflows
through remittances. Stricter visa rules have slowed down the rate of
immigration also. That is also worrisome for a section of population.
Now coming to forecast for the
current election outcome.
A number of opinion polls have
been conducted in Gujarat to gaze the voters' sentiments. Almost all of these
polls have suggested a BJP victory. However, there is huge divergence in terms
of the scale of BJP victory. The forecast ranges between barely managing the
majority (91-99 seats) to an overwhelming majority (131-141 seats).
My sense, based on my discussions
with a number of people watching these elections closely, is as follows:
(a) BJP will make the next government in Gujarat.
There are many voters who
traditionally voted for BJP, but are no longer committed to it. A negligible
proportion of these voters is however attracted to Congress. So, most likely
they may abstain from voting. In this case BJP may get more than 127 seats (its
highest tally so far, attained in 2002).
However, if my reading is wrong
and all this dissenters come out to vote, BJP may be reduced to 85-87 and may
need support of few independents to form the government.
I would rate the probability of
127+ seats more than 80%.
(b) This may be the last election for Congress as a dominant force in
Gujarat. From 2022 onwards a regional set up shall replace Congress as the
principle alternative to BJP.
(c) Through their aggressive campaign in past few weeks, Rahul Gandhi
has gained admiration of some middle aged tribal and rural women. Narendra Modi
on the other hand had lost some supporters in the educated middle class with
foreign connections.
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