Thought for the day
"Find enough clever
things to say, and you're a Prime Minister; write them down and you're a
Shakespeare."
—John Milton (English,
1608-1674)
Word for the day
Apopemptic (adj)
Pertaining to leave-taking
or departing; valedictory.
Malice towards none
Who won the Gujarat
elections?
First random thought this morning
Many of the arguments of studio experts and Congress sympathizers on
news channels were totally ridicules. For example, one of the common argument
was that BJP is nervous therefore Modi & Shah had to put so much effort.
It's like Sri Lanka pleading that our bowling attack is weak, therefore India
should not play Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma against us.
I think, BJP should be appreciated for not taking any election
(even local body) lightly and making an all out effort to win, which Congress
does not.
The other most ridiculous argument is that Gujarat election should
be seen as revival in the fortunes of the Congress party.
True to the exit polls and a majority of opinion polls, BJP won
assembly elections in the hill state of Himachal State and key western state of
Gujarat. The elections were marked as "key" because Gujarat is the
home state of both, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit
Shah, and the results were keenly watched as a reflection on the popularity of
the inarguably two most powerful persons in the country at present.
The Gujarat results, though clearly in favor of BJP, are being
seen with a variety of prism by everyone.
The anti BJP camp is taking it as clear sign of the revival of the
fortunes of the Congress party. Liberal and elites are terming it a setback for
PM Modi, citing lesser BJP performance as compared to 2014 Lok Sabha election
and 2012 assembly elections. BJP is marketing it as a grand success and show of
peoples' solidarity with PM Modi.
In my view, these election results have far more serious
repercussions for the Congress Party, then the analysts are currently
projecting. The gains for BJP are also much more than what most analysts are
attributing presently.
From credibility to
existential - Crisis worsens many degree for Congress
In my view, the outcome of recently concluded Gujarat elections,
significantly deepens the crisis for the Congress Party. The crisis which was
mostly seen as the crisis of credibility and organizational capabilities, shall
turn to the existential threat. Consider this:
(a) Gujarat is one of the
five large states, besides Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, in
the country where the post independence political history has been clearly
divided into pre and post Congress periods.
The Congress Party dominated the politics in TN (upto 1967), West
Bengal (upto 1977), UP & Gujarat (upto 1989) and Bihar (upto 1990). But
since then it has failed to even come closer to forming a government in any of
these large states. Odisha definitely seems the sixth State going this way.
These six states account for more than half the voters in the
country. With Congress taking 3rd or 4th spot in these large states, the
chances of it rebuilding an organization that will help it win National
elections is more than remote.
(b) The Gujarat elections
were contested with strong economic headwinds, business disruption
(Demonetization and GST), massive social unrest and discontentment over issues
like unemployment, unremunerative farm prices etc. The loss of Congress Party,
shall render these issues less potent in the forthcoming elections in states
like Karnataka, MP, and Chhattisgarh, and save BJP from 15yrs of anti
incumbency in MP and Chhattisgarh.
(c) The Congress Party has
apparently funded the local caste based groups in Gujarat in these elections.
Congress is now left with no credible local leadership of its own. If the past
practice is a guide, Rahul Gandhi may not be visiting the State anytime in near
future.
These people have already established their brand identities on
Gujarati electoral landscape, at the expense of Congress (financial and
political). In next five years, this shall definitely take the shape of a local
opposition to BJP. Congress could not have done worse.
(d) With Sonia Gandhi out
of active politics, the Congress Party shall lose its role as the fulcrum of
the probable grand opposition alliance against BJP. Considering that the
Congress Party has mostly failed in transferring votes to its alliance partners
in last UP and Bihar elections, it loses its place as the principal opposition
party. With Rahul coronation as the President (who has given up traditional
"Secular" garb in this election), the chances of splinter groups like
NCP and TMC coming back to its fold have also dissipated.
(e) The Congress Party
needs to appreciate that people join active politics to satisfy their
aspirations for gaining power and recognition. If people feel that by joining
Congress party, they cannot win elections or become minister etc., they would
not waste their time on it.
In the current scenario, the Congress Party shall not be in a
position to impart any position of power to its workers. Even most of its
stalwarts shall be losing their privileged Rajya Sabha seats and attendant
benefits. We may never hear about these erstwhile stars again, once they vacate
their posh Lutyen's Bungalows.
(f) Anyone taking comfort
in Congress's improved performance in Gujarat, may please analyze the outcome
2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections; or the performance of Sri Lankan cricket
team in Dharamshala ODI and Mohali ODI a few days ago.
Significant victory
for BJP
The outcome of these elections, on the back of massive victory in
UP earlier this year, shall afford BJP an legitimate opportunity to market
Demonetization, GST and all other economic policies as "success" in
the successive state election leading upto 2019 general elections. BJP shall
discount it as a positive in forthcoming elections, leaving no credible agenda
with opposition.
The victory shall also enthuse the BJP workers and supporters, who
were getting disenchanted in past one years. It will also silence many
detractors.
Those concerned about BJP's underperformance in Gujarat, may
please consider - huge economic headwinds, disruptions due to Demonetization
and GST, massive social unrest against the incumbent government, anti
incumbency of 22yrs, departure of Narendra Modi from the state politics, and
then evaluate BJP's performance. Evaluating the performance against the Amit
Shah's claim of 150 seats is totally naive. (Comments not welcome)
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