"Social order at the
expense of liberty is hardly a bargain."
—Marquis de Sade (French,
1740-1814)
Word
for the day
Notabilia (plural noun)
Matters, events, or items
worthy of note.
Malice
towards none
Is the undue focus of media
& people on star kids Taimur and Aradhya a case of child abuse?
First random
thought this morning
Household power back up is a
reasonably large industry, mostly in MSME sector. The business of assembly, sales
and repair & maintenance of power back up equipment (inverters and UPS) and
batteries employs a large number of people, especially in perennially power
deficit areas of UP and Bihar.
The 24X7 power supply would
essentially mean closure of this entire chain of business. Youth could probably
adjust in some other business by re-skilling, but there are many middle aged
people in this trade who would nowhere to go!
Real Estate - Market feed back
In past couple of week, I have met many people
engaged in the business of real estate - developers, financiers, brokers,
construction material suppliers. I also spoke with some prospective buyers.
I find it pertinent to share my
assessment of the current state of affairs in this vital sector of the economy.
I may however clarify that this assessment may suffer from the inadequacy of
the my sample and therefore need necessarily not apply on all India basis.
(a) Most real estate developers were of the opinion that once RERA is
notified in all the states, the new launches will dry up for 2-3yrs as the
developers get used to the new norms.
Micro developers who can complete
project without presales are best placed to benefit from RERA.
Very large developers with land
bank may take upto 1-2yrs to develop the ecosystem envisaged under RERA to be
able to launch new projects. Medium sized developers without any land bank may take
much longer to get back in the business.
There is much concern about the
status of incomplete projects. There is a fear that there could be considerable
delay in completion of these projects as registration under RERA could take
time.
There is an expectation that due
to supply disruption, the real estate prices may not fall much from current
levels. Moreover, many feel, that the prices may have already bottomed out and
due to higher cost and compliance levels, the prices may move higher in next
one year.
The private real estate
construction activity in UP is standstill due to a variety of reason - shortage
of sand, government pressure where approvals are suspicious, RERA,
demonetization, high circle rates etc.
Small and midsized property
dealers and brokers, who have been facing stiff competition from online
property brokers and facilitators, fear for their existence.
(b) Most developers felt that mass rental projects under affordable
housing segment, would be a massive growth area in next couple of decades.
(c) Prospective home buyers are ambivalent as yet. However, most
agree that they need to buy a house and any indication of price hike will
prompt them to expedite their decision.
(d) Both midsized cement companies I met, suggested that prices of
cement may not rise in near term. Both suggested that price coordination
amongst producers is weakening. Cost pressure are easing, as coke and fuel
prices seems to have peaked. GST is seen marginally beneficial due to input
credit allowance.
(e) Appliances, fittings and furnishing manufacturers, distributors,
retailers and consumers are sanguine about the strong demand in near term. None
of them appears sharing pessimism of real estate developers. Up-trading and
viability (better power supply, women also working, etc) are the key words
here.
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