"When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a
scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean - neither more nor
less."
— Lewis
Carroll (English, 1832-1898)
Word for the day
Juggernaut (n)
Any large, overpowering, destructive force or object, as
war, a giant battleship, or a powerful football team.
Malice towards none
Trump = 1 USA = 1
First random thought this morning
All market participants seem concerned about the outcome of
ongoing elections to the five state assemblies.
No one is explaining me the specific economic (and hence market)
implications of these elections.
There is little empirical evidence of any assembly elections
having impacted the incumbent government at the centre, or having influenced
the subsequent general elections.
BJP lost badly in Delhi and Bihar, post general elections in 2014.
So what's the deal?
Slums, Rapes, sense of non-belonging
As per the
Economic Survey 2016-17, migration within India is between 5 and 9 million
annually. The migration has accelerated materially in past 15yrs. Higher growth
and a multitude of economic opportunities could therefore have been the
catalyst for such an acceleration of migration.
The Report by the Working Group on Migration (GoI, 2017) has
identified 54 districts with a high level of inter-state out-migration
intensity. States like Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Gujarat attract
large swathes of migrants from the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and
Madhya Pradesh. Kolkata in West Bengal attracts migrants from nearby states of
Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, and Odisha. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar taken together
account for half of total out-migrants. Maharashtra, Goa and Tamil Nadu had
major net in-migration, while Jharkhand and Madhya Pradesh had major net
out-migration.
The acceleration of migration is particularly pronounced for
females and has increased at nearly twice the rate of male migration in the
2000s. Undoubtedly, the dominant reason for female migration now is
"economic", rather than just "marriage" or "household
move".
The survey admits that the acceleration in migration has occurred
in spite of discouraging incentives such as domicile provisions for working in
different states, lack of portability of benefits, legal and other entitlements
upon relocation.
The Survey states that the domestic remittances market is
estimated to be in excess Rs. 1.5 lakh crores annually.
Whereas there has been debate about the slow urbanization rate in
India, inequality in regional growth and concentration of economic activity in
few areas, the debate about the state of migrant labors is mostly confined to
NGO academics.
In fact, in past two decades, I have never heard any forum
discussing the undesirability of the accelerating trends in migration.
The latest data reinforces my view that:
(a) The urban development and town planning policies
are worthless and totally ineffective, without a comprehensive policy on
workers' migration.
(b) The women security strategies and plans without
adequate attention to the fact of large scale women worker migration are least
likely to succeed.
(c) Cooperative federalism is bound to fail,
until and unless the States are empowered and encouraged to make bi-lateral
treaties, especially in respect of the flow of workers. It is critical even for
realizing the full benefits of GST.
(d) In Indian context, large scale worker migration
may not be desirable. It is therefore important to make the Village as primary
unit of development, rather than State or Country.
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