"A fellow who is always
declaring he's no fool usually has his suspicions."
—Wilson Mizner (American,
1876-1933)
Word for the day
Panjandrum (n)
A self-important or
pretentious official.
Malice towards none
These days in media
promotion, the slimming products and services are sharing equal space with
weight gaining and body shaping products and services.
Perhaps Size Zero fad is
dissipating. What else will change with this?
First random thought this morning
With successful test launch of RLV-TD India moved an inch further
in establishing itself as a lowest cost space service provider. In 10-15 years ISRO
could be the real money spinner for the government. Deal with Iran on Chabahar
port may open many Central Asian doors for India.
US Congress has blocked US$450mn aide to Pakistan over
non-compliance on anti-terrorism pledge. US forces also violated Pak's
sovereignty by launching yet another attack on its territory.
Can we say that Indian foreign policy is out of historical
Indo-Pak muck and India is moving on fast become a relevant global player.
Still trying to make money from politics?
The stock prices of two Tamil Nadu based media groups, publically
known to have affinity to rival political parties, oscillated widely during
last week. Making mockery of the whole democratic process, probity in public
life, and governance standards - traders, investors and fund managers rushed to
buy the stock "believed" to be benefitting from patronage of the
winning party.
It is for the enforcement agencies, CAG, regulators and judiciary
to scrutinize whether the incumbent governments in Tamil Nadu (and elsewhere
for that matter) do actually favor a particular media group (or any other
business group for that matter) in the business of the government or it is just
a matter of public perception.
However, purely from investment strategy viewpoint I find the
behavior of traders, investors and fund managers strange and suffering from a
poor gambling instinct. If someone wishes to disagree he may note the
following:
The shares of Sun TV listed in April 2006 and the listing day
closing was 366 (adjusted for Bonus in 2007), not very different from the
closing price of yesterday. The party supposedly patronizing the company was
part of the Central Government during 2004-2014.
The shares of Raj TV listed in March 2007 and closed at Rs56.50 on
the listing day (adjusted for bonus in 2014), a return of 2.44% CAGR over
9years, when the party supposedly favoring the stock has been in power since
2006.
The point I want to reiterate is that policy making in India has
mostly been supportive of financial markets in past 25years; regardless of the
Form (single party majority, single party minority, or multi party coalition)
and the Constitution (Only Centrist, Centrist with Left, Centrist with
Socialists, Right with Socialists, and Rightist) of the government.
The trajectory of economic growth has mostly been a factor of
usual economic cycles and global liquidity & credit availability. Since
opening of the economy in early 1990s, barring small bouts of policy (fiscal
and/or monetary) stimulated higher growth, the growth has been mostly below
"potential", casting valid doubt over the judgment of the
"potential" itself.
The leadership's commitment to the execution has made some
difference to the trajectory of the economic growth, but the impact has mostly
been neutralized by overall poor governance standards and failures on the
inclusion front.
Historically I have avoided participation in the debates over
policy issues like WTO, VAT, FDI, GST, DTAA, GAAR etc., as I firmly believe
that in a democracy no one can stop an idea whose time has come, and vice versa
no one can implement an idea whose time has not yet come.
FDI in insurance & pension saw many parliament session getting
disturbed. I didn't hear any voice of protest when it was implemented. Like
GST, VAT was also resisted vociferously but accepted later without a murmur.
....to continue
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