Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Times are changing - for good or bad, only time will tell

"I was born not knowing, and have had only a little time to change that here and there."
— Richard P. Feynman (American, 1918-1988)
Word for the day
Quaff (v)
To drink a beverage, especially an intoxicating one, copiously and with hearty enjoyment.
Malice towards none
Congress celebrating Delhi municipal by-polls victory (4 out of 13) as if they have destroyed AAP and BJP completely.
First random thought this morning
Shiela Dixit and Tarun Gogoi served three consecutive terms as CM of their respective states. Ms. Dixit is already out of power. Mr. Gogoi is indicated to be going out. Given the state of affairs in the Congress Party, these leaders may not come back to power anytime soon.
Others who are serving third term are Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh. They need to be extremely careful. A win will bring them in the league of invincible Jyoti Basu, Manik Sarkar, Pawan Chamling, & Naveen Patnaik, whereas a loss might severely dent their political career.

Times are changing - for good or bad, only time will tell

As the incumbent government completes 2years in power, a debate is raging whether it had been able to deliver on its electoral promises. The negative argument sounds mostly rhetoric and politically motivated. The positive argument too suffers from seeing little further from the present.
In my view, normalized for the impact of adverse weather conditions (severe drought and surprise floods) in past 2yrs, legacy fiscal constraints, export demand contraction due to global slowdown, and benefits of lower energy prices - the government has performed reasonably well on the economic front. The failings could be counted mostly on social front.
The government has managed the fiscal conditions very well despite socio-political compulsions. Prudent and frequent hikes in duties on fuel, despite severe criticism and political reverses in Delhi & Bihar, is just one example.
Improving systemic efficiencies through better use of technology and close monitoring from the top is also showing result in project execution especially logistics, power and financial sector.
One of the best performance has been in the area of image building. PM himself has executed the task of improving India's global image as attractive investment destination. The marketing exercise has been duly backed by significant legislative, legal and administrative provisions. The rules for foreign investments have been modified keeping in view the long term goals of making India a preferred destination for long term productive investment and not just a trading & arbitrage centre.
The government led by BJP has been able to successfully keep their party's economic ideas (mostly based on nationalistic self reliance) at arm's length, and maintain consistency in economic policies. Belying all fears of major disruptions in economic policy under influence of right wing ideologues. At the same time it has encouraged domestic enterprise to become competitive enough to take on global leaders. Patanjali is just one case in point. The domestic defense manufacturing sector might see some global size players in next 10-15years.
Moving away from traditional populism like loan waiver and unproductive stipend to help rural economy, the government has for the first time introduced some structural changes like comprehensive crop insurance and soil health card etc. Better communication through DD Kisan channel is also being appreciated widely. Better water management is a work in progress, but progressing well in right direction.
The government has struck some decisive blows to the parallel economy, breaking the nexus between scrupulous businessmen and politicians. The immediate impact is slowdown in business, but the long term benefits will be immense.
Achhe din (good times) might be an election slogan. The government might seem working against the interest of middle class (BJP's traditional core vote bank) but that may not be true...........to continue

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