Friday, March 18, 2016

Could it be different this time - 4

"The true triumph of reason is that it enables us to get along with those who do not possess it."
—Voltaire (French, 1694-1778)
Word for the day
Rodomontade
To boast; brag; talk big.
Malice towards none
Joke circulating on Whatsapp - "The government banned 'Corex' cough syrup just to debilitate Arvind Kejriwal!"
First random thought this morning
As per a recent research report 20 OECD countries might have $78trillion in unfunded or underfunded government pension liabilities. Inarguably, the ultimate sufferer of the so called unconventional monetary policies will be the poor pensioners of the world.
The Ponzi in the name of ZIRP or NIRP can only end when poor & old savers lose most of their savings. Imagine the pain of a pensioner who does not get any return on his savings for 10-15yrs and then suddenly hyper-inflation sets in.
I am suddenly feeling like converting to Marxism.

Could it be different this time - 4


Despite experiencing a number of false starts in past three decades, I am inclined to bet on "it could be different this time".
The events of past 2-3years give strong reasons to believe that the time is finally coming when the interest of people could override the interest of feudal lords and pseudo socialists.
I would like to highlight just five points to emphasize my viewpoint:
(1)   The government, regulators and courts have taken a series of decisive actions to mainstream the infamous parallel economy. The steps like cancellation of 2G spectrum licenses & coal block allotments; e-auctioning of resources; real estate regulation; direct cash transfer of subsidies and mandatory linkage to Aadhar; transparency in defense and railways procurements; tax surveillance of large value purchases; challenging the misuse of tax exemptions for agriculture income; charitable purposes & LTCG; one time amnesty for declaring domestic and foreign unaccounted money; etc. some of the measures that would deter corruption in public office & tax evasion and forcefully discourage the parallel economy.
As the traditional ways of doing business are challenged consistently, the business momentum may get disrupted in the short term. But in mid to long term the benefits would be tremendous and sustainable.
(2)   The superior emphasis on enablement of people rather than just providing for them is a structural reform, that could make India potentially a globally competitive economy. Undertaking the task of development of occupational skills and entrepreneurship in youth on mission basis could potentially fill the gap between the aspiration and actualization.
(3)   The past three union budgets of have shown strong commitment to the mantra of growth with fiscal responsibility. Ignoring the interests of political expediency and short term economic the government has shown firm resolve to make the growth fiscally sustainable. Most state governments and RBI have supported the government efforts well, enhancing the confidence of global investors. The efforts have been widely lauded in the global arena, including by rating agencies. Though analysts are still skeptical of the feasibility of government meeting its fiscal targets, I find no reason to doubt the budget numbers.
(4)   There has been a conscious effort to devolve more powers on the state and local governments. The difference this time is that devolution is coming with assignment of various responsibilities. The states are being engaged actively in the development of railways, upgradation of civic infrastructure and ensuring sustainability of power sector.
(5)   The best part is that unlike the past, the promotion of self reliance is not being sought to achieve by stifling global competition. To the contrary, the global participation is being encouraged to make India self reliant in technology, manufacturing and optimum exploitation of local resources.
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