Monday, March 21, 2016

Nifty: on the way to 8K, lack momentum to move beyond

NEXT DAILY POST ON 28 March 2016.
WISH ALL THE READERS A HAPPY and COLORFUL HOLI
 
Thought for the day
"Sunshine is delicious, rain is refreshing, wind braces us up, snow is exhilarating; there is really no such thing as bad weather, only different kinds of good weather."
—John Ruskin (English, 1819-1900)
Word for the day
Saturnine (Adj)
Sluggish in temperament; gloomy; taciturn.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
Following the footsteps of his mother, Mukesh Ambani's son has shed half his weight only to gain weight in his father's business empire.
First random thought this morning
The government has taken a brave step towards implementation of a critical structural reform, i.e., achieving fully market linked small saving rates. The resistance is likely and natural. Nonetheless a path has been shown. Even if the present government fails to tread on it, someone will traverse it, in not a long distant future.

Nifty: on the way to 8K, lack momentum to move beyond

Since beginning of this month I have been insisting (see here and here) that Nifty faces a credible resistance in 7600-7610 range and a successful crossover will take it to 8000 mark in no time.
The market closed last week right in the top resistance zone. It however looks like that the resistance will be overcome this week and the up move will strengthen further, led of course by financials.
However, the momentum, measured as a matrix of cash delivery volumes, volatility, market breadth, etc., has failed to pick up with the latest up move in the market.
In my view, therefore, it is more likely that the current move may terminate in 7889-7940 range (with a small possibility of going up to 8065 level) and not culminate into beginning of a new market cycle.
My trade in the current circumstance would be (a) Cover shorts immediately; (b) initiate fresh long in large banks; (c) liquidate all trading positions above 7860; (d) initiate aggressive shorts close to 8100 level.
 
 

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