Monday, March 28, 2016

Nifty: Preparing for the next market cycle

Thought for the day
"The essence of lying is in deception, not in words."
—John Ruskin (English, 1819-1900)
Word for the day
Amaranthine (Adj)
Unfading; everlasting
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
AK makes to Fortune's 50 greatest!
What does this reflect?
First random thought this morning
All appears well and the country has moved on. MSD has regained his mojo. We have got a new God in Virat Kohli. Mehbooba has finally yielded to the charm of PM Modi. Rahul Gandhi has proved his nationalistic credentials by playing Holi and dispelling rumors of his British citizenship. Shashi Tharoor has stormed the social media. NaMo is now following AK. Most important, no one bothered to report who played (and who did not) Holi with LKA.

Nifty: Preparing for the next market cycle

As I have been insisting for past few weeks, Indian markets have completed the market cycle that started on 28 August 2013. The cycle started from Nifty 5285 level (closing), peaked at 8922 on 04 March 2015, and ended on 29 February 2016 at 6987 Nifty level.
The cycle was one of the smaller ones, both in terms of time period and the distance covered. I expect the next market cycle to be the largest one yet both in terms of time period and the distance covered.
However, as of today, the market appears to be in no hurry to announce beginning of the new cycle. I would say the market is presently witnessing some nice sunny days in the winter.
It is difficult to say whether we would get some wet, chilly and grey weather before the spring arrives. But I would not lower my guards. I would rather stock up dry wood, keep my woolen stuff ready and carry my umbrella and fur coat even during warm sunny afternoon stroll in the market.
Simultaneously, I would be preparing for the spring as well. I shall diligently plough the fields, buy good seeds that would blossom into colorful fragrant flowers and sweet & juicy fruits in spring time.
Though I have not yet fixed my tryst with the spring, I expect this to take place sometime in next 4-5months.
In the meantime, I do not expect Nifty to fall below 7200 level, with a 50% probability of it not falling below 7490 level.
 

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