Friday, March 4, 2016

Care 'bout elephant sitting right next to you!

"An intellectual hatred is the worst."
— W. B. Yeats (Irish, 1865-1939)
Word for the day
Supercilious (adj)
Haughtily disdainful or contemptuous, as a person or a facial expression.
Malice towards none
The evidence emerging from Haryana  strongly suggests a total breakdown of constitutional machinery during recent RIOTS in the State.
If this is not a fit case under Article 356 for imposition of president rule, then there could never be any case for its use.
First random thought this morning
In past few years, an overwhelming large number of Indian politicians have demonstrated their disregard for the democratic institutions, most notably, the Parliament & various State Assemblies, the Judiciary, the CAG, and office of State Governors.
It is critical to stop here and examine whether only a certain class of elected representatives have lost faith in the working of democracy in India, or it is reflection of a perception prevailing in a broader section of the Society. For without solving this conundrum, we might not be able to move forward.

Care 'bout elephant sitting right next to you!

In past couple of days many of my regular readers have criticized me, rather uncharitably, for two things - (a) unduly appreciating the Union Budget for FY17 and (b) digressing from the market to muddy field of politics.
The common points of criticism are - "why should an investor take a hard stand on any politician?"; and "how do I care so much about decades, when all that matters is what the market will do between 9:15AM to 3:30PM today?".
My critics are not wrong. But neither am I. It's only matter of different approaches to achieve the same goal.
I have stated it twice before. I am reiterating it. There are people who live life as a series of discrete days. It's not me. I see life as a continuous time series. I do not assign much importance to the discrete days, like last or first days of months, quarters, and years, in the infinitum of time. The random data points published on these days also do not bother me much. These data points, including daily stock prices, monthly sales and production numbers, quarterly profits, are relevant to me only if they form a easily discernible pattern in a secular trend.
I bother more about the secular trends and not random digressions. And I have no hesitation in saying that the secular trend in Indian equities is definitely UP. Rest all is merely matters of discussion.
Now coming to the specific points of criticism.
I am not unduly appreciating the budget presented by Mr. Jaitely last Monday. I am truly happy. I have been frequently saying that the Indian economy and hence the corporate India can grow to their potential only if the growth becomes more inclusive. With 5% people earning, saving, investing , consuming and 95% just surviving, the economy can grow only at the conventional Hindu Rate of growth. We need at least 75% people participating in the growth process, to grow at the desired double digit pace.
To achieve this, the government need to become an enabler and not just continue to remain a provider. The finance minister, through his latest budget presentation, has made a statement of intent to this effect. The corporates, and the middle classes which will produce the largest number of entrepreneurs through such enablement, will benefit the most from this change. All the investors in Indian market should be rejoicing this, like me. Bothering about a few pennies in extra taxes would be like missing the big elephant sitting right next to you.
I care least for the dividend tax, knowing fully that only 10-15k people in a country of 1.30bn would be marginally impacted by this provision.
Insofar as coming down hard on politicians is concerned - I may clarify that I did not make any political point yesterday. I see a huge transformative global economic trend in that. This shall have serious investment implications, in my view. I had written about that couple of years back also. I will explain again, in some detail, next week.
My greetings to all the readers on the pious occasion of Maha Shivratri,

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