"Give me chastity and continence, but not yet."
—St. Augustine (354-430)
Word for the day
Nimiety (n)
Excess; overabundance. E.g. nimiety of mere niceties in
conversation.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
President rule in Arunachal Pradesh!
Is BJP serious about Budget Session, especially GST?
First random thought this morning
Difficult to fathom a few years back, Persian-American friendship
could very well be the highlight of 2016. The kind of welcome and "surrender"
President Hassan Rouhani is getting on his current Italy visit tells a lot of
things.
One, post Paris attacks, the west might be looking at Shia Iran as
the most potent partner in fight against the threat of IS. Two, with Libya,
Iraq and Iran threats mostly neutralized and energy independence achieved, US
may no longer need Saudi friendship the way it needed a few years back. Three,
Iran and Iraq could be much more reliable and progressive allies as compared to
Pakistan and Saudi.
It may be good news for India.
Tendulkar then Kohli now
Yesterday, I had suggested (see here)
that the core issues which are seriously constricting economic growth and
development of India include preference to form over substance, governance
deficit, lack of corporate social responsibility, skill deficit, and
infirmities in the commitment to public service.
To have a better understanding of what I am trying to suggest,
please visit any popular market near you on a security high alert day. There
are 75% chance that you would find a pirated CD/DVD vendor selling his stuff
openly and fearlessly within 50mtr distance of a police post or PCR van.
The issues like inflation, fiscal deficit and foreign portfolio
investments etc are at best tertiary issues that impact economic growth on the fringes,
in my view.
Another factor that is seriously impeding the socio-economic
development of the country is lack of inspiring leadership in public and
corporate life. (In fact this problem has been a serious global problem in past
two decades.)
Especially after unfortunate demise of JP movement in late 1970s,
our search for a truly national leader has remained unsuccessful. Leaders like
NTR, Rajiv Gandhi, LK Advani, AB Vajpayee etc. briefly appeared to take the
mantle; but none lasted more than a few years.
In between, Indian populace has also experimented by idolizing
sundry sportspersons, movie stars, and corporate leaders only to be
disappointed in no time.
Recently, the prime minister Narendra Modi did evoke more support
than even JP. An overwhelming number of youth truly believed him to be the
Redeemer, who will redeem India from the ills of poverty and underdevelopment.
However, the current approval ratings and electoral setbacks suggest that his
Charisma may already have begun to fade.
The consequence of the lack of inspiring leadership is - (a)
rising incidence of non-compliance amongst citizens; (b) difficulty in evolving
consensus on various issues of national importance (including foreign policy
and defense); (c) poor federal cooperation; and above all absence of a national
approach to any issue or policy, etc.
On a mundane note, the equity markets are also showing absence of
any credible leadership - a pre-requisite for any sustained bull market.
The private consumption, exports and financials that have led the
bull market since the lows of 2009 appear tired. Financials had quit the race
long back. Consumers are languishing since past two quarter, especially on the
back of poor rural demand post a poor monsoon season. Amongst exporters - pharma
has suffered due to regulatory and over-valuation issues; IT is holding so far
but there are signs of fatigue and CNY devaluation and poor European demand has
put question mark on sustainability of textile bulls. Aviation and Sugar are
some foot soldiers marching ahead - but may lack adequate ammunition to sustain
on their own for long.
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