"I was really too
honest a man to be a politician and live."
—Socrates (Greek, 469-399BC)
Word for the day
Bellwether (n)
A wether or other male sheep
that leads the flock, usually bearing a bell.
A person or thing that
assumes the leadership or forefront, as of a profession or industry:
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Malice towards none
How difficult it is to
convince the Indian courts that God cannot be insulted (or respected for that
matter).
Anyone who claims to be hurt
by someone's supposedly blasphemous comments or acts, actually hurts the
sentiments of millions who believe God to be Supreme.
First random thought this morning
An RTI petition has revealed that the "Make in India"
logo and campaign has been designed and executed by a foreign firm.
On the face, this sounds logical, since the campaign is primarily
aimed at encouraging foreign businesses to invest in building manufacturing
capacities in India.
But the argument that the Make in India could be ill-conceived in
the sense that it does not focus on key strengths of the country is also not
without merit.
It's nowhere close to 2008
In past one month the number of market participants anticipating a
repeat of 2008 in global markets has grown consistently. The arguments on the
other side are rather feeble.
In my view, there is nothing like 2008 in the present scenario.
The mere fact that so many people are expecting a 2008 like freeze in the
market is sufficient to prove my point.
The following points are also worth considering in this context.
- 2008 events occurred
with commodity cycle at the peak and forecast for further strengthening. This
time commodity cycle has already moved a long distance towards south and
forecasts are all bearish.
- Unlike 2008, the
central banks now have a variety of new tools that have been successfully
tested for preempting and liquidity freeze conditions.
- In 2008, bankrupt
peripheral Europe and rough US derivative traders led the collapse. This time
it is China, which is very much solvent, still growing over 5% (even if discount official numbers
hugely) and continues to be a command economy. Moreover, China is on its way to
Japanification - on the verge of ceasing to be a big influencer of global
markets.
- Unlike 2008, this time
growth expectations are moderate, and portfolios are positioned for a crash
with EM and commodities underweight.
- India is one of the
bright spots in global deleveraging in the sense it has managed reasonable
growth without compromising debt to GDP ratio.
However, since the developed markets have not done much in past ten years.
and India has massively outperformed - it is still possible for markets to
correct 10-12% from current level, but it may not stay down for long. At the
same time, I do not expect a rally like 2009-10 in 2016.
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