Friday, March 13, 2015

Reporting from the hinterland

Thought for the day
"Great minds have purposes; others have wishes."
-          Washington Irving (American, 1783-1859)
Word for the day
Brouhaha (n)
Excited public interest, discussion, or the like, as the clamor attending some sensational event; hullabaloo:
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
A youthful Congress driven by the Idea of AAP would provide a strong and stable opposite pole in the Indian politics.

Reporting from the hinterland

A short two day trip to rural areas of western UP and discussions with a few farmers, agro commodity traders and food processors provided some interesting insights into the current economic, social and political conditions.
Though the visit was confined to the villages closer to industrial towns, in my view, the prevailing conditions could be reasonably extrapolated to the entire State of UP, and the adjoining states of Uttrakhand, MP. Haryana, Bihar and Rajasthan.
The unseasonal rains have caused serious damage to the standing crops of wheat, mustard, and pulses. The damage to Sugarcane is not very serious from rains, but the threat from fungus and pests has increased manifold. There is minor damage to Potato crop.
Given the late monsoon rains, most farmers were expecting a good winter rabi crop this year and accordingly have invested higher than normal in the crop. The losses, coming on the back of a poor summer Kharif crop, have compounded impacting the purchasing and borrowing power of the farmers. The majority of landless and marginal farmers may be in distress given lesser demand for labor from construction sector and lower MNREGA spending.
The interesting thing is that most farmers are now aware of the technology advances. They keenly follow the price movements across global and local markets. Most farmers follow midterm weather forecasts and El Nino developments. The forecast about likely below par monsoon this year has dampened the spirits furthers. Most rural households appear to have fastened the strings of their purses tightly.
Another interesting insight was provided by a senior district administrator. He highlighted that in most of rural and semi-rural areas of UP the popular inclusion scheme PM Jandhan Yojna (PMJY) has been marketed and sold as some sort of blessed goose that will regularly keep laying golden eggs. It has not been marketed as a tool to promote inclusion or enhance household savings. The outcome in the short to midterm will therefore only be limited to plugging the leakages in grants that are transferred directly.
On political side, the popularity of PM Modi may be on the wane in UP. Akhilesh government is a clear beneficiary of this. The state government has seriously enhanced its engagement with people post May 2014 Lok Sabha election rout. Save for a dramatic improvement in the economy and performance of the national government, 2017 state assembly election may not be a easy going for BJP.
The social strife seen during the run up to the Lok Sbha election has conspicuously diminished. Muzzafarnagar, Saharanpur and Shamli were found calm and quiet; not many people complaining about the state's apathy.

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