Thought for the day
"We are not the same persons this year as last; nor are those
we love. It is a happy chance if we, changing, continue to love a changed
person."
-
Somerset Maugham (British, 1874-1965)
Word for the day
Portent (n)
An indication or omen of something about to happen,
especially something momentous.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Teaser for the day
Does smooth passage to Insurance Bill in Rajya Sabha
indicate that INC and TMC might be to NDA what SP and BSP were to UPA.
The return of political skepticism
The political milieu of the country has taken a turn for the
worse over last few weeks. The investors, both domestic and global, have been
watching the political developments keenly and might be little concerned about
the recent developments. Especially considering that the positive sentiment on
India has largely been driven the promise of a stable, transparent and
responsive government post May 2014 general elections.
The ruling BJP has faced many embarrassing moments in and out of
Parliament during past one month. For one, the conduct of allies like Shiv
Sena, TDP and PDP has been at odd purpose with BJP. Secondly, the united
opposition that enjoys majority in Rajya Sabha has been leaving no opportunity
to embarrass the government. Thirdly, the extreme right wing elements within
and outside BJP have been challenging the credibility of the PM's promise of
inclusivity and faster development.
The principal opposition Congress Party has been struggling to
overcome the spate of electoral defeats it has faced in the past couple of
years. The party has seen total breakdown in the lower level organizational
structure due to a variety of reason. To make the matter worse, the dithering
top level leadership has also been conspicuous by their absence from addressing
the Party's concerns.
Most regional parties, like JDU in Bihar, TMC in West Bengal,
SAD in Punjab, and AAP in Delhi have been mired in controversies. Impropriety,
personal ambitions and larger aspirations have impacted the image as well as
performance of the governments.
Smooth passage of the Insurance Amendment Bill in Rajya Sabha,
might have provided some consolation to the investors that all sanity is not
lost. But the mood in opposition circle over the critical Land Acquisition Bill
and Mining Bill does not appear kind.
The legal trouble for the former prime minister Dr. Manmohan
Singh, and controversy surrounding Delhi police's curious incursion in the
Congress Vice president Rahul Gandhi's office shall make the matter worse.
The tax dispute over retroactive tax demand from Cairn Energy Plc.
is not helping the government stance of "no tax terrorism" and
"no retro tax". A bad publicity on this account, much like the
infamous Vodafone case, could impact the credibility of the government.
The forthcoming Bihar state assembly elections due later this
year are indicated to be one of the most acrimonious elections seen in recent
times. A united opposition and BJP infested with internal strife could further
queer the pitch for the central government.
Outside financial markets, the recent squabble between rival
factions within AAP, has certainly put a little dent on the optimism of urban
middle classes over improvement in socio-political conditions. Restoration of
skepticism prevalent till summer of 2013 may have serious economic
repercussions in my view. It is therefore important for investors to understand
the implications of AAP.................to continue
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