Thought for
the day
“A pessimist is correct oftener than an optimist, but an
optimist has more fun, and neither can stop the march of events.”
Word of the
day
Obsequy (n)
A funeral rite or ceremony.
(Source: Dictionary.com)
Shri Nārada
Uvāca
Is Arvind Kejariwal new Kanshi Ram?
Congress
has much more to worry than mere losing power
The opinion polls conducted so far have predicted substantial
losses for Congress Party in the coming election, both at the state and center
level. If the current mood of people prevails till 2014 elections, there is
strong possibility that Narendra Modi might lead the next government with
Congress getting reduced to its lowest strength in the Parliament.
The popular debate presently is focused on (a) who will
emerge winner Modi or Rahul in this contest of personalities; Modi seems to
have clear initial advantage; and (b) whether Modi will be able to stitch together
a larger enough alliance to be able to form a comfortable government to carry
out his economic reform and development agenda; the jury is still out on this
issue.
In our view, a win for Narendra Modi may not mean a mere
loss of power for the Congress Party. It could have much more serious
repercussions for the Party in general and many of its leaders in particular.
We feel the Congress Party needs to take Modi challenge much more seriously
rather than being dismissive of it. For example consider the following:
(a)
The chasm between old feudal lordship within
Congress Party and young turks has been widening since past few years. Loss in
2014 election will embolden the old guards. With Mrs. Sonia Gandhi not in best
of her health, and Rahul being rejected by the people of India, we might see
some Kamraj, Morarji Desai, Jagjiwan Ram, Biju Patnaik, Mamata Banerjee, Jagan
Reddy Mohammed Alimuddin and Bhajan Lal sort of rebellion against the family.
Nonetheless there could certainly be more episodes of Kamalapati Tripathi,
Sharad Pawar and Sitaram Kesari sort of misadventures.
Priayanka Gandhi has not been tested yet, but in our view, faced
with such a situation she may not be as successful as Mrs. Indira Gandhi was in
overcoming the threat from Syndicate in late 1960’s.
(b)
Absence of any recognized national level leader
outside Gandhi family will encourage more secession on lines of Sharad Pawar,
Mamata Banerjee, Jagan Reddy, et al. This could be especially true in case of
states where Congress enjoys reasonably higher vote share but is doing poorly
in terms of electoral wins, e.g., UP and Gujarat.
(c)
With Narendra Modi at the helm, the secularism
vs. communalism debate will become almost irrelevant breaking the very fulcrum
of opportunist alliances that have kept Congress in contention since mid
1990’s. In a communally neutral political environment the regional parties
would be more amenable to BJP which does not compete with many of these at
state level and has demonstrated better track record in center – state relations.
(d)
With Congress likely out of power for 5years,
much reduced strength in Rajya Sabha and only a few states under its rule
(forecasts suggest it losing Andhra Pradesh too, leaving it with just one big
state under its rule, i.e., Maharashtra) the already meager cadre may further
splinter away, making a comeback even more unlikely.
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