Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Growth trajectory slips further

The 4QFY20 economic data has again highlighted the points, I have been emphasizing for past many quarters, which is-


(i)    The economic growth in India has been declining structurally since the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008-09. For couple of year, monetary and fiscal stimulus given by the extant government to mitigate the impact of global crisis supported the growth. However, post FY13, the growth trajectory never looked like retracing to pre GFC levels. A strong number in FY22 would be purely a base effect.
 
(ii)   The long term growth curve in India has shifted down. The potential growth in India is no longer 8% plus. The pivot is somewhere close to 6%.

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(iii)  The global deflationary pressures are causing the nominal growth curve to shift down even more than the real growth. It is pertinent to note that a sustained fall in nominal growth would be new phenomenon for Indian policy makers and population alike.
The government's budget, revenue and expenditure targets, sectoral allocations, and all allocation for all social and development programs is usually based on the nominal growth numbers. The benign inflation post GFC has resulted in a faster decline in nominal GDP growth as compared to the real GDP growth. However, now the nominal growth has reached the level where a decline would directly result in lower wages, lower rental and lower returns on savings.
A sustained downward trend in nominal growth may result in some dramatic adjustments in socio-economic structure. The effective rate of taxation may have to be raised considerably to meet the social development targets. The household savings that have been a traditional source of safe and steady funding for both corporate and government may decline widening the gap for fiscal and corporate funding. The socio-economic inequalities may rise materially as the poor and middle classes become sustenance households (earning just to meet the expenses, just like developed economies) without any material social security benefit.


As RBI recently highlighted in its monetary policy statement the inflation trajectory is most likely to remain benign, except for few cyclical spikes in food inflation. This essentially means, the policy makers, administrators, businesses, workers, consumers, savers and farmers all might need to reset their plans, policies, aspirations and expectations.
 

Friday, May 29, 2020

Farm sector economics in India - 4

Continuing from yesterday (see Farm sector economics in India - 3)
Yesterday, I suggested 10 illustrative farm level reforms that need to be implemented "urgently, vigorously, simultaneously", along with the necessary policy level and social level reforms to have a positive structural shift in the conditions of the farmers in India. It is critical for ensuring sustainable higher economic growth and realization of the objective of self reliance.
Policy level reforms
There was this feudal lord, who had enslaved a number of peasants on different pretexts. He would make them toil hard the whole day and give two inadequate meals to survive.
Occasionally, on festivals, birthdays of his children, his marriage anniversary, and death anniversary of his parents, he would treat them with a good meal and sweets. Once in 3-4yrs, during winters, he would give them new blankets so that they do not die of cold. In return, the bonded peasants were expected to hail him as protector and great benefactor of the poor.
No one ever dare ask for freedom from bondage. No one ever considered freeing these poor enslaved peasants.
The condition of Indian farmers is no better than those bonded labors in the story stated above. Various governments have been exploiting them, giving occasional doles and expecting favors in the form of votes. No one has considered making these farmers self-reliant - financially secure and economically viable. Unfortunately, the farmers have also been quite satisfied with occasional doles and have not been seeking redemption from slavery.
The recent episodes of loan waivers, interest subventions, hike in MSP etc are nothing but the new blanket and packets of sweets offered to the farmers so that they survive the chilly winter. Anyone assuming it to be anything more than that is seriously mistaken.
I believe that this is the primary reason for Indian economy not being able to grow faster on sustainable basis. Unless, two third of the population earns enough so that it can adequately consume, save and invest - it may be actually foolish to believe that an inwardly oriented economy like India can consistently grow faster.
The following are some of my ideas for the policy level reforms. These ideas are based on the insights gained through numerous interactions with the farmers, organizations and individuals working in rural areas for welfare of the farmers, local administrators etc.
Since independence the government has focused on development of industrial infrastructure in the country. It has actively participated in the endeavor through a large number of public sector enterprise; besides offering a myriad tax and other concessions to the private entrepreneurs. Now, the country has a reasonably strong industrial base. Many of our industries are globally competitive. We have a strong set of entrepreneurs and risk takers. It is therefore high time when the government should reset its priorities and turn its primary focus on agriculture. To meet this end, the government may consider implementing the following five policy level measures:
1.    Exit all industrial and banking activities and actively undertake agricultural activities. It should develop barren lands; develop water bodies and irrigation facilities; develop and use technology for enhancing productivity; give employment to landless farmers; take risk with new technologies & crops; partner with marginal farmers in consolidating their land and do farming on that land - just the way it undertook industrial activities immediately after independence.
2.    Undertake, on mission basis, the task to re-skill the underemployed farmers and farm labor. The farmers and their family members may be trained as dairy workers, domestic help, nurses, tourist guides, artisans, etc. Expecting construction sector to absorb all surplus farm labor is a bad idea.
3.    Develop at least 5 very large special agri export zones in rocky and desert areas of central and western India and undertake export of farm produce as a commercial activity. These zones may be developed in public, private or joint sector. Besides, it may acquire farm assets, especially rice farms, overseas to reduce water intensity of Indian agriculture.
4.    Encourage various states to make bilateral or multilateral agreements for procurement, processing and trading of farm produce and movement of labor within states.
5.    Nationalize all rivers. Develop a national water grid. Set up a national water regulator, who shall work out water sharing formula for all states and union territories every three year and maintain adequate provisions for managing droughts. The idea should be to ensure that not a drop of river water flows into sea from India.
It has taken seven decades for Indian industries to reach a stage where the government may consider fully exiting the industrial activities. It may take 2-3 decades for Indian agriculture to reach a stage where the government will be able to exit farming activities completely.
Please note that I am also not suggesting nationalization of agriculture sector. I am just saying that the government should undertake the activity on commercial basis to provide the sector with much needed escape velocity in terms of capital, technology, and risk taking capability.
Social reforms
The disproportionate rise in aspirational consumption; distortion of social customs (especially marriage, death, birth) for the sake of vanity, ignorance, and misguidance; rise in crime and litigation expenses; rise in cases of chronic diseases and hence prohibitive healthcare expenses form an overwhelming part of "farmers' debt". This debt usually has nothing to do with farming activity. This is in fact true for a large majority of urban poor and lower middle class people also. To cure this problem on sustainable basis, it is important that economic reforms are implemented with social reforms.
The social initiatives like focus on cleanliness, cooking gas connection to BPL families, medical insurance, etc are commendable,. But what we need is a social renaissance. Small correction and incremental improvement might not be enough given the serious nature of the problem, in my view.
I am not a social scientist. I may therefore not be an appropriate person to suggest the steps that could be taken within the Indian sociological framework. But this does leaves me at freedom to throw some thoughts that may not belong to the box. I would sugegst the following specific programs at social level:
(a)   The government should take strong affirmative steps to eradicate social distortions that have crept in over a period time in our social, religious and cultural events.
To begin with the government should totally nationalize the religious part of the birth, death and marriage ceremonies. The government should appoint qualified religious persons (QRP) who can perform these ceremonies at the designated venues established by government in every Block of the country. All the expenses like salary of QRP, cost of performing the rituals, food offered to QRP, cost of feeding upto 20 close relatives of the person for whom the rituals are being done, etc. should be borne by the government. Special officers may be appointed to supervise all such ceremonies and issue certificate (Birth, Death, Marriage) on the spot.
The government should actively discourage profligate spending on the social part of these events. All expenses on marriage & birth related parties and social functions relating to death, may be taxed @100%. Meaning, if anyone wanting to spend Rs10,00,000 on marriage party of his/her child, he/she shall be required to pay an equivalent amount as tax. This money may be used exclusively for performing the religious ceremonies stated above.
(b)   A dignified birth and death shall be made fundamental right of every citizen.
In case of birth, the government should assume responsibility of the child from the conception stage, for upto two children for each parent. This includes good diet for mother, medical tests, medicine, delivery expenses and immunization of the child. This should be done on a global standard basis not the way typical government medical facility is run by the government. In case of death, the final rights of the deceased should be performed in a dignified manner, as per his/her religious traditions. This should apply to all unclaimed and unidentified bodies also.
The insurance companies may be directed to make the claim payments on the spot when the final rituals are done on 13th, 17th or 40th day as the case may be, in cases where the deceased's life was insured, either individually or under some government group scheme. The corporates may be required to fund this initiative under their CSR obligation.
(c)    All regular visitors to the holy shrine of Mata Vaishno Devi in Jammu, who are more than 50years of age, would vouch that the assigning the administration of the shrine to an independent Board in 1986 has led to dramatic improvement in the management and infrastructure in and around the Shrine. No one's religious feelings have been hurt and the number of pilgrims visiting the holy cave has multiplied exponentially.
The government may consider constituting an autonomous constitutional body like Election Commission to take over the management and administration of all places of worship in the country to put an end to rampant cases of exploitation, mismanagement, money laundering and other disputes, encroachment of public land, environment degradation, and promote secularism, brotherhood, tolerance etc.
A separate assembly of religious leaders, holy men for each religion may be formed. This assembly may be given the task to reevaluate all Holy Scripture, and find if there is any need to reinterpret the scriptures in the light of modern day circumstances and realities. The religious leaders should be requested to weed out the redundancies and misinterpretations, so that no one manipulates the religious sentiments of the people in the name of scriptures and divine mandate. The assembly should also frame a code of conduct for all people responsible for helping people with their religious ceremonies and duties. For example, the Hindu assembly may want to ban flowing the last remains of dead people in holy rivers to save them from dying. The ashes may be used for making bricks that can be used to build places of worships and houses for the poor. It may also encourage people to use electronic or gas based cremation, instead of wood pyres. Alternatively, each family member of the deceased may be required to plant two trees each and take care of it till it grows to become self-sufficient.
These steps, if taken, may make the life of poor (both rural and urban) materially comfortable and substantially increase the happiness quotient of the country, in my view.
These thoughts and suggestions are nothing new. I have been presenting this to the concerned authorities and to the readers (through this post) frequently. I promise to keep pressing with this in future also, till I see some progress on this.
Readers' comments and views are welcome at vijaygaba.investrekk@gmail.com

Thursday, May 28, 2020

Farm sector economics in India - 3



Continuing from yesterday (see Farm sector economics in India - 2)
I have said this earlier also, and I do mind reiterating. To bring any meaningful improvement in the fragile condition of India's farming community, a comprehensive rural development effort is needed. Any piecemeal solution like occasional loan waiver shall have almost no sustainable impact. The traditional farmer welfare measures like periodic hikes in support prices for certain crops, farm input subsidies, interest rate subvention have not yielded the desired results.
In my view, a sustainable improvement in Indian farmers' conditions is possible only under a comprehensive rural development mission. The mission should address the problem with structural reforms at three levels, viz., 1. Farm Level; 2. Policy Level and 3. Social Level. All reforms must be pursued "urgently, vigorously, simultaneously" and in a fully integrated fashion, for having a meaningfully sustainable impact.
Farm level reforms
At farm level farmers are struggling with a multitude of problems. The most prominent being:
(a)   Uneconomical land holdings (fragmented holdings, unclear land titles) (also see here)
(b)   Low productivity
(c)    Vagaries of nature (frequent droughts & floods)
(d)   Poor price realization
(e)    Poor market access
The measures initiated so far, e.g., higher support prices, cheaper credit, crop insurance, improved irrigation, cash fertilizer subsidy, better market access (eNAM, roads etc.) have positive impact on the state of agriculture in the country. But this may not be sufficient, as it will have only some incremental impact on the sector. What we need is a set of radical reforms that would break the linearity and provide much greater impetus to growth. (also see here)
The following ten steps, besides other measures, if taken immediately may help in significantly improving the conditions at the farm level:
(i)    Enforce land consolidation by linking subsidies and facilities to a minimum farm size. Village or Block level farm cooperatives should be encouraged to achieve this objective. Changes in tenancy rules and allowing large scale leasing by corporates could be misused to exploit of farmers.
(ii)   Digitize all land titles within 2years. Enforce time bound Panchayat level resolution of all title disputes preferably through mediation.
(iii)  Change government procurement system. Government should provide all inputs and technical guidance to the participating cooperatives, and take 50% of the crop in lieu of this. The balance crop should pay for the labor cost and profit. This will ensure three things: (1) Guaranteed timely supply of quality inputs; (2) No debt burden on farmer in case of crop failure. The government can take adequate insurance for recovery of its costs; and (3) Adequate profit to the farmers.
(iv)   The landowners who have never engaged in farming activity in past two decades should be forced to give away their landholdings to cooperatives at 50% discount. Anyways these landowners let out their land on crop sharing basis or nominal lease rental.
(v)    Make sure not a single drop of river water flows into the ocean from India. Develop river linking and water distribution grid on the models of roads.
(vi)   Allow corporates to develop waste and barren land for farming purposes. For example, many corporates from India and Arab world may be interested in developing Rajasthan and Gujarat desert and barren lands for growing dates, palm, aloe etc.
(vii)  Set up a price equalization mechanism through participation of private corporate sector. Encourage building large scale storage capacities for farm produce. Assure a regulated return of 10% premium on bench-mark yields, and allow bonds issued by warehouses as SLR securities PSL assets.
(ix)   Take factories to farms. Encourage industry to partner with farm cooperatives to set up food processing units at the farms. The farmers' cooperative allots land and provides farm produce, whereas the entrepreneurs contribute capital and undertake marketing and sales responsibilities. Both share the profit in pre-agreed ratio. This should maximize profit of both the industrial enterprise as well farmers, and create ample employment opportunities close to villages.
(x)    Assist the famers in the water deficient areas to move away from water intensive crops like Paddy, Sugarcane, Banana etc. Provide them cash incentive, technical assistance, marketing & sales assistance and necessary inputs to move to less water intensive cash crops.
I shall share my thoughts and suggestions for policy level and social level reforms tomorrow.

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Farm sector economics in India - 2

Continuing from last week (See Farm sector economics in India)
The issue of laborers migrating from large cities and industrially developed towns to villages & towns of industrially backward UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, etc has caught everyone's attention in past few weeks. This migration is being widely seen as a fall out of COVID-19 induced lockdown of socio-economic activities. Indubitably, the lockdown has prompted many workers to wind up their household and move back to their home towns. But it would be a grave mistake to assume that lockdown is the only reason for the migration.
The rate of unemployment amongst migrant and other workers was rising consistently since past few years. Demonetization and GST dealt a major blow to the jobs in unorganized and MSME sector. Besides, these workers were faced with the double whammy of stagnant to declining wages and rising cost of living. To highlight my point, I would cite my favorite example again.
The rikshaw fare from the nearest metro station to my house in Delhi is stagnant at Rs20 for past 6years. The number of rikshaws has increased almost 3x while the passenger growth is less than 50%; the cost of living has risen at least by 30%. The rikshaw pullers/drivers have been forced to live in sub-human conditions.
The only lure that has kept them in the city is a better future for their children. If they are assured of MNREGA wage and city like education in their villages, they would have migrated long back. While making a strategy for farm sector growth, it is important to note the following:
(a)   The employment elasticity of growth in manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors has been decreasing consistently. This trend shall only accelerate in future. Most of the growth shall come from higher productivity through automation, innovation and consolidation. Elimination of redundancies and economies of scale shall lead the growth effort. The number of jobs, especially unskilled and low skill jobs shall remain limited.
(b)   Implementation of a common GST, nationwide agriculture market, ecommerce, automation (AI) etc., are leading to business consolidation in a major way. This may potentially eliminate millions of unskilled and low skill jobs in next decades of or so.
(c)    The historical transition of farm workers to industry during the developing stage of growth may not work in the current Indian context. The so called developed economies have transited the labor from farm to factories, when industry and mining were still labor intensive and global competition was not much. The productivity gains were immediate and tangible. It is no longer the case. The industry in India is already capital intensive. Even traditional labor intensive industries like gems & jewellery, textile, leather, mining and construction are becoming increasingly automated to stay viable against the global competition. Emulating China model may not work in India, as our political and economic model is entirely different. Moreover, the skill and training requirement for modern industry do not allow a straight farm to factory transition. So the options get limited to unskilled construction sector jobs and building industry around farms where the skill of the farmers could be suitable employed.
While MNREGA and ambitious rural road program is taking care of unskilled construction jobs, there is little effort to take factories to farms.
The ambitious Make in India program mostly aims to substitute imports. We are trying to compete with manufacturing powerhouses like China, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. This defies the basic principle of making economic decisions, viz., everyone should do what they can do best to optimize the resource utilization.
....to continue tomorrow