Showing posts with label reforms. Show all posts
Showing posts with label reforms. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 11, 2022

Now or never

If we have to list the reasons for the loss of growth momentum in our economy in the past decade or so, the following three would be amongst the top reasons:

1.   Credit euphoria preceding the global financial crisis and the subsequent meltdown

The credit euphoria preceding the global financial crisis and the subsequent meltdown severely damaged India’s financial system. The banking system was crippled with enormous amount of bad assets; many key infrastructure projects were either abandoned or suffered inordinate delays; employment generation capabilities were impaired; private savings began to decline structurally; and overall investments also slowed down.

It has taken almost a decade for the Indian banking system to clean its books and return to the path of growth, stability and profitability. Private savings and investments though still have a lot to catch up.

2.   Disruption through policy changes without adequate mitigation strategy

At least two major policy decisions were taken in the past decade that disrupted the status quo materially, viz., demonetization of high denomination currency notes constituting over 80% of the currency in circulation; and implementation of nationwide Goods and Services Tax that subsumed a number of indirect taxes. These two changes had a significant impact on the unorganized segment of the economy. Numerous cottage, marginal and small enterprises that were outside the main industrial value chain of the economy lost out to their larger organized peers. It was almost a repeat of the 1991 liberalization that made many protected and patronized businesses unviable. Incidentally, no lessons were drawn from the painful transition during the 1990s.

The structure of the Indian economy has changed significantly since the early 1990s when the first round of transformative economic reforms was implemented. The share of agriculture & allied services has reduced from over 33% in 1990-91 to less than 17% now; whereas the share of industry has grown from 24% in 1990-91 to over 28% and the share of services has grown from 43% to 55%. However, unlike the economic transitions in the now developed economies, our planners have failed to ensure a proper transition of agriculture labor to the industry and services.

The public sector that was a major employment provider to urban labor started to downsize post economic crisis in 1998-99. The share of industry in the economy did not improve much in the past two decades. With technological advancement the employment elasticity of industrial growth also diminished materially. The task of employment generation for unskilled and semi-skilled labor was thus left mostly to the construction sector. As this sector suffered the most in the post GFC meltdown, it was for the unorganized cottage and marginal enterprises to support the lower middle class and poor households. The decision to implement demonetization and GST had no explicit provision to support this sector.

Consequently, the reliance of the poor and lower middle class on fiscal support (food, health, education, travel etc.) has increased materially impacting private consumption and overall growth.

3.   Disruptions due to the pandemic

The outbreak of global pandemic (Covid-19) in early 2020, disrupted the economic activity world over. Most of the countries were locked. The global supply chains were disrupted. The labor displacements and travel restrictions have been debilitating. The process of normalization is continuing, but it is far from complete.

Domestic economy witnessed huge displacement and reverse migration of labor; loss of livelihood for millions; loss of opportunity for millions as digital apartheid pushed them out from the education and skill building ecosystem; rise in wealth and income inequality; and lower productivity due to restrictions. Besides, the broken supply chains ensured higher inflation in almost everything.

Arguably, all these reasons are transient in nature and the economy should be able to revert to the path of stable growth in due course. However, the two key considerations here are – (i) How fast could we complete the transition to the new order; and (ii) how could we minimize the damage to the socio-economic structure of the country. The more we delay completing the transition, the deeper and wider the pain will spread. And if we fail to take mitigating steps to minimize the pain, the damage to the growth ecosystem could be structural, impeding the growth efforts for decades.

Also, this must be understood in the context of the fast maturing demographic profile (see Gorillas in the Room) and worsening inequalities (see Economy – Uneven recovery to pre-pandemic levels, accelerators missing).  

Friday, October 23, 2020

Too many cooks will spoil the dish

 A few month ago, the banking and monetary regulator in India, the reserve Bank of India (RBI), assumed the responsibility of stimulating the economic growth, in addition to its primary responsibility of regulating & supervising the banking & money market institutions, formulating & implementing monetary policy to achieve the objectives of financial stability and price stability. Given the state of economy, no one could find any fault with the RBI assuming this additional responsibility. In fact the RBI was commended for taking this extra load.

It is very well accepted that a well-functioning, deep and robust financial market is a must for economic development. On Wednesday, the financial market regulator, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) assumed the additional responsibility for reviving the sagging Indian economy. SEBI’s chairman reportedly said “SEBI is considering multiple steps to reboot the economy through financial market reforms”. He said, “It will be challenging to achieve the government’s ₹100 trillion investment target for infrastructure by 2024-25 unless the bond market is adequately developed.

Market regulator recognizing their role in the overall economic growth and development of the country is a very comforting. They committing to efforts for promoting economic growth and development is also welcome. However, the regulators actively assuming responsibility for growth may not be appropriate after all. All institutions and all citizens have a defined role in the functioning of the economy. If all perform their assigned roles as per their best abilities, the growth will happen automatically. The growth is hampered when the one or more segments of the economy fail in the performance of their assigned roles.

It is widely recognized that crisis in financial sector is materially responsible for economic slowdown in India. Obviously, it reflects poorly on the RBI’s ability to regulate and supervise the financial institutions and delivery of credit.

In this context, it is pertinent to note the conclusions made in a recent Working Paper of RBI, titled “Bank Capital and Monetary Policy Transmission in India”. The “paper examines the role of bank capital in monetary policy transmission in India during the post-global financial crisis period. Empirical results show that banks with higher capital to risk-weighted assets ratio (CRAR) raise funds at a lower cost. Additionally, banks with higher CRAR transmit monetary policy impulses smoothly, while stressed assets in the banking sector hinder transmission. Recapitalization to raise CRAR can improve transmission; however, CRAR above a certain threshold level may not help as the sensitivity of loan growth to monetary policy rate reduces for banks with CRAR above the threshold. Therefore, it can be concluded that monetary policy can influence credit supply of banks depending on their capital position. (emphasis supplied)”

The paper also concludes that “Presence of non-performing assets in a bank also weakens monetary policy transmission and lowers the loan growth rate. These results support the need for bank capital regulation in India.”

Similarly, multiple scams and malfunctioning of securities’ market institutions like Mutual Funds and Stock Exchanges have negatively impacted the investors’ sentiments. SEBI must share some responsibility for this also, and focus more on “Regulation” rather than “Reforms”. For, “Reforms” is a function of policy making and not of regulation.

A large section of the market participants and investors believes that “over regulation” and “misdirected regulation” by SEBI in past few years may have caused more than damage to the capital markets and therefore economy than SEBI’s reform measures would have helped anyone.

In my view, building a vibrant retail debt market is imperative for the sustainable economic growth of the country. But this is a function of the government. SEBI’s role should be limited to efficiently regulating the market.

 

Wednesday, September 30, 2020

Farm sector Reforms - 6

 

Continuing from last week (See Farm Sector Reforms – 5)

To bring any meaningful improvement in the fragile condition of India's farming community, a comprehensive rural development effort is needed. The traditional farmer welfare measures like periodic hikes in support prices for certain crops, farm input subsidies, interest rate subvention have not yielded the desired results. In view of this, the latest legislative effort I important and desirable.

However, this may not be sufficient. A sustainable improvement in Indian farmers' conditions is possible only under a comprehensive rural development mission. The mission should address the problem with structural reforms at three levels, viz., 1. Farm Level; 2. Policy Level and 3. Social Level. All reforms must be pursued "urgently, vigorously, simultaneously" and in a fully integrated fashion, for having a meaningfully sustainable impact.

Farm level reforms

At farm level farmers are struggling with a multitude of problems. The most prominent being:

·         Uneconomical land holdings (fragmented holdings, unclear land titles) (also see here)

·         Low productivity

·         Vagaries of nature (frequent droughts & floods)

·         Poor price realization

·         Poor market access

The measures initiated so far, e.g., higher support prices, cheaper credit, crop insurance, improved irrigation, cash fertilizer subsidy, better market access (eNAM, roads etc.) have positive impact on the state of agriculture in the country. The latest legislative measures that would enable, contract farming, forward contracts, and higher investment in post-harvest infrastructure would further support the agriculture sector in India.

In my view, the following steps, besides other measures, if taken immediately may help in significantly improving the conditions at the farm level:

·         Enforce land consolidation by linking subsidies and facilities to a minimum farm size. Village or Block level farm cooperatives should be encouraged to achieve this objective. Changes in tenancy rules and allowing large scale leasing by corporates could be misused to exploit of farmers.

·         Digitize all land titles within 2years. Enforce time bound Panchayat level resolution of all title disputes preferably through mediation.

·         Change government procurement system. Government should provide all inputs and technical guidance to the participating cooperatives, and take 50% of the crop in lieu of this. The balance crop should pay for the labor cost and profit. This will ensure three things: (1) Guaranteed timely supply of quality inputs; (2) No debt burden on farmer in case of crop failure. The government can take adequate insurance for recovery of its costs; and (3) Adequate profit to the farmers.

·         The landowners who have never engaged in farming activity in past two decades should be forced to give away their landholdings to cooperatives at 50% discount. Anyways these landowners let out their land on crop sharing basis or nominal lease rental.

·         Make sure not a single drop of river water flows into the ocean from India. Develop river linking and water distribution grid on the models of roads.

·         Allow corporates to develop waste and barren land for farming purposes. For example, many corporates from India and Arab world may be interested in developing Rajasthan and Gujarat desert and barren lands for growing dates, palm, aloe etc.

·         Set up a price equalization mechanism through participation of private corporate sector. Encourage building large scale storage capacities for farm produce. Assure a regulated return of 10% premium on bench-mark yields, and allow bonds issued by warehouses as SLR securities PSL assets.

·         Take factories to farms. Encourage industry to partner with farm cooperatives to set up food processing units at the farms. The farmers' cooperative allots land and provides farm produce, whereas the entrepreneurs contribute capital and undertake marketing and sales responsibilities. Both share the profit in pre-agreed ratio. This should maximize profit of both the industrial enterprise as well farmers, and create ample employment opportunities close to villages.

·         Assist the famers in the water deficient areas to move away from water intensive crops like Paddy, Sugarcane, Banana etc. Provide them cash incentive, technical assistance, marketing & sales assistance and necessary inputs to move to less water intensive cash crops.

Policy level reforms

The following are some of my ideas for the policy level reforms. These ideas are based on the insights gained through numerous interactions with the farmers, organizations and individuals working in rural areas for welfare of the farmers, local administrators etc.

Since independence the government has focused on development of industrial infrastructure in the country. It has actively participated in the endeavor through a large number of public sector enterprise; besides offering a myriad tax and other concessions to the private entrepreneurs. Now, the country has a reasonably strong industrial base. Many of our industries are globally competitive. We have a strong set of entrepreneurs and risk takers. It is therefore high time when the government should reset its priorities and turn its primary focus on agriculture. To meet this end, the government may consider implementing the following five policy level measures:

·         Exit all industrial and banking activities and actively undertake agricultural activities. It should develop barren lands; develop water bodies and irrigation facilities; develop and use technology for enhancing productivity; give employment to landless farmers; take risk with new technologies & crops; partner with marginal farmers in consolidating their land and do farming on that land - just the way it undertook industrial activities immediately after independence.

·         Undertake, on mission basis, the task to re-skill the underemployed farmers and farm labor. The farmers and their family members may be trained as dairy workers, domestic help, nurses, tourist guides, artisans, etc. Expecting construction sector to absorb all surplus farm labor is a bad idea.

·         Develop at least 5 very large special agri export zones in rocky and desert areas of central and western India and undertake export of farm produce as a commercial activity. These zones may be developed in public, private or joint sector. Besides, it may acquire farm assets, especially rice farms, overseas to reduce water intensity of Indian agriculture.

·         Encourage various states to make bilateral or multilateral agreements for procurement, processing and trading of farm produce and movement of labor within states.

·         Nationalize all rivers. Develop a national water grid. Set up a national water regulator, who shall work out water sharing formula for all states and union territories every three year and maintain adequate provisions for managing droughts. The idea should be to ensure that not a drop of river water flows into sea from India.

It has taken seven decades for Indian industries to reach a stage where the government may consider fully exiting the industrial activities. It may take 2-3 decades for Indian agriculture to reach a stage where the government will be able to exit farming activities completely.

Please note that I am also not suggesting nationalization of agriculture sector. I am just saying that the government should undertake the activity on commercial basis to provide the sector with much needed escape velocity in terms of capital, technology, and risk taking capability.

Social reforms

The disproportionate rise in aspirational consumption; distortion of social customs (especially marriage, death, birth) for the sake of vanity, ignorance, and misguidance; rise in crime and litigation expenses; rise in cases of chronic diseases and hence prohibitive healthcare expenses form an overwhelming part of "farmers' debt". This debt usually has nothing to do with farming activity. This is in fact true for a large majority of urban poor and lower middle class people also. To cure this problem on sustainable basis, it is important that economic reforms are implemented with social reforms.

The social initiatives like focus on cleanliness, cooking gas connection to BPL families, medical insurance, etc are commendable,. But what we need is a social renaissance. Small correction and incremental improvement might not be enough given the serious nature of the problem, in my view.

I am not a social scientist. I may therefore not be an appropriate person to suggest the steps that could be taken within the Indian sociological framework. But this does leaves me at freedom to throw some thoughts that may not belong to the box. I would suggest the following specific programs at social level:

(a)   The government should take strong affirmative steps to eradicate social distortions that have crept in over a period time in our social, religious and cultural events.

To begin with the government should totally nationalize the religious part of the birth, death and marriage ceremonies. The government should appoint qualified religious persons (QRP) who can perform these ceremonies at the designated venues established by government in every Block of the country. All the expenses like salary of QRP, cost of performing the rituals, food offered to QRP, cost of feeding upto 20 close relatives of the person for whom the rituals are being done, etc. should be borne by the government. Special officers may be appointed to supervise all such ceremonies and issue certificate (Birth, Death, Marriage) on the spot.

The government should actively discourage profligate spending on the social part of these events. All expenses on marriage & birth related parties and social functions relating to death, may be taxed @100%. Meaning, if anyone wanting to spend Rs10,00,000 on marriage party of his/her child, he/she shall be required to pay an equivalent amount as tax. This money may be used exclusively for performing the religious ceremonies stated above.

(b)   A dignified birth and death shall be made fundamental right of every citizen.

In case of birth, the government should assume responsibility of the child from the conception stage, for upto two children for each parent. This includes good diet for mother, medical tests, medicine, delivery expenses and immunization of the child. This should be done on a global standard basis not the way typical government medical facility is run by the government. In case of death, the final rights of the deceased should be performed in a dignified manner, as per his/her religious traditions. This should apply to all unclaimed and unidentified bodies also.

The insurance companies may be directed to make the claim payments on the spot when the final rituals are done on 13th, 17th or 40th day as the case may be, in cases where the deceased's life was insured, either individually or under some government group scheme. The corporates may be required to fund this initiative under their CSR obligation.

(c)    All regular visitors to the holy shrine of Mata Vaishno Devi in Jammu, who are more than 50years of age, would vouch that the assigning the administration of the shrine to an independent Board in 1986 has led to dramatic improvement in the management and infrastructure in and around the Shrine. No one's religious feelings have been hurt and the number of pilgrims visiting the holy cave has multiplied exponentially.

The government may consider constituting an autonomous constitutional body like Election Commission to take over the management and administration of all places of worship in the country to put an end to rampant cases of exploitation, mismanagement, money laundering and other disputes, encroachment of public land, environment degradation, and promote secularism, brotherhood, tolerance etc.

A separate assembly of religious leaders, holy men for each religion may be formed. This assembly may be given the task to reevaluate all Holy Scripture, and find if there is any need to reinterpret the scriptures in the light of modern day circumstances and realities. The religious leaders should be requested to weed out the redundancies and misinterpretations, so that no one manipulates the religious sentiments of the people in the name of scriptures and divine mandate. The assembly should also frame a code of conduct for all people responsible for helping people with their religious ceremonies and duties. For example, the Hindu assembly may want to ban flowing the last remains of dead people in holy rivers to save them from dying. The ashes may be used for making bricks that can be used to build places of worships and houses for the poor. It may also encourage people to use electronic or gas based cremation, instead of wood pyres. Alternatively, each family member of the deceased may be required to plant two trees each and take care of it till it grows to become self-sufficient.

These steps, if taken, may make the life of poor (both rural and urban) materially comfortable and substantially increase the happiness quotient of the country, in my view.

These thoughts and suggestions are nothing new. I have been presenting this to the concerned authorities and to the readers (through this post) frequently. I promise to keep pressing with this in future also, till I see some progress on this.

Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Farm Sector Reforms - 5

 Continuing from last week (See Farm Sector Reforms – 4)

While announcing the famous Rs20trn economic stimulus package in May 2020, the finance minister had made the following 10 key promises for the farm sector in India. It was categorically stated that the governments sees farm sector as a key driver of overall economic growth and also a powerful engine to drive the “self-reliance” agenda.

1.    Essential Commodities Act to be amended to enable better price realization for farmers by attracting investments and making agriculture sector competitive.

2.    A central law to be enacted to provide for inter-state trade and framework for e trading of agriculture produce.

3.    The government to facilitate appropriate legal framework for an enforceable standard mechanism for predictable prices of crops at the time of sowing.

4.    Financing facility of Rs.1Lakh Cr to be provided for funding Agriculture Infrastructure Projects at farm gate & aggregation points (Primary Agricultural Cooperative Societies, Farmers Producer Organizations, entrepreneurs, Start ups, etc.)

5.    Rs 10,000 Cr. scheme to be launched for Formalization of Micro Food Enterprise (MFE) through Cluster based approach (e g Mango in UP, Kesar in J&K, Bamboo shoots in North East, Chilli in Andhra Pradesh, Tapioca in Tamil Nadu etc

6.    Rs20,000 cr support to be provided under the Pradhan Mantri Matsya Sampada Yojana (PMMSY) for integrated sustainable, inclusive development of marine and inland fisheries. Rs11,000 cr to be provided for activities in Marine, Inland fisheries and Aquaculture and Rs9,000 cr for infrastructure including Fishing Harbours Cold chain, Markets etc. Provisions of ban period support to fishermen (during the period fishing is not permitted) and personal & boat insurance.

7.    Rs 13343cr to be provided for starting National Animal Disease Control Programme for foot and mouth disease and brucellosis.

8.    Animal Husbandry Infrastructure Development Fund to be launched with total outlay of Rs15,000 cr.

9.    Rs4,000 cr support for promotion of  herbal cultivation covering 10lakh hectare. Rs500 cr scheme infrastructure development related to integrated beekeeping development centres, collection, marketing and storage centres, post harvest & value addition facilities etc. 

10.  Operation Green proposed to be extended from tomatoes, onion and potatoes (TOP) to all fruits and vegetables, i.e., (TOTAL).

In pursuance of these promises, the government passed three enabling legislations in the parliament.

I have said it earlier also, and I have no hesitation in reiterating that the measures already taken and the those proposed to be taken are very important and desirable. To the question “"whether these measures sufficient or we would need much more to attain the twin objectives of self-reliant India and sustainably higher economic growth?", my answer is that these measure could deliver the desirable outcome only if these are implemented with the many more structural reforms in the farm sector.

The farming sector in India is characterized by (a) small holdings; (b) low productivity and (c) landless farmers.

1.    During FY11 and FY17, the total operated farm area has decreased from 160million hectare to 157.872million hectare; number of holdings have increased from 138.35 million to 146.45 million and the average holding size has decreased from 1.15 hectare to 1.08 hectare. For the context, the average farm size was 2.4hectare in 1971.

2.    The marginal and small holdings (0 to 2 hectare) account for 86% of total holdings, covering about 47% of the operated area. Medium (2 to 10 hectare) holdings are 13.3% covering 44% of the operated area. Large holdings (above 10 hectare) are merely 0.57% covering 9% of the operated area.

The more important and worrying statistics however is that there are over 100mn Marginal Farmers, with average holding of 0.38 hectare (0.9 acre) accounting for almost 68% of the total farmers. These farmers mostly do sustenance farming, and under no circumstances can earn decent two square meals from farming activity alone. 100mn farm holdings means about 400mn population, assuming an average family of 4. Marginal farmers with average land holding of 1.4 hectare are another 18% or 25mn.

About 47% of the total operated area is covered by these small and marginal farmers. The uneconomical size of holdings, which are getting further divided with the death of each farmer, ensures low productivity, poor financial conditions, no investment capacity and perennial debt in many cases.

3.    There is huge variation in land holding pattern amongst states. For example, AP and TN have largest proportion of landless farmers (more than 50%): Bihar and West Bengal have largest number of marginal farmers (close to 60%), where Rajasthan has the largest share of large farmers. Same agri policy for all these states is bound to fail.

4.    The average monthly rural household income in India is about Rs6426 and average Monthly rural household expenses are about Rs6223. About 85% of households earn less than their expenses. About half of this income comes from cultivation and rest from other activities like labour (including MNREGA) and animal husbandry. Rural household spend about half their income to buy food. There is little change in real rural wages over past five years. Rural wages are an important component of rural income and a key determinant of minimum support price for farm produce.

…to conclude tomorrow

 

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Farm sector economics in India - 2

Continuing from last week (See Farm sector economics in India)
The issue of laborers migrating from large cities and industrially developed towns to villages & towns of industrially backward UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, etc has caught everyone's attention in past few weeks. This migration is being widely seen as a fall out of COVID-19 induced lockdown of socio-economic activities. Indubitably, the lockdown has prompted many workers to wind up their household and move back to their home towns. But it would be a grave mistake to assume that lockdown is the only reason for the migration.
The rate of unemployment amongst migrant and other workers was rising consistently since past few years. Demonetization and GST dealt a major blow to the jobs in unorganized and MSME sector. Besides, these workers were faced with the double whammy of stagnant to declining wages and rising cost of living. To highlight my point, I would cite my favorite example again.
The rikshaw fare from the nearest metro station to my house in Delhi is stagnant at Rs20 for past 6years. The number of rikshaws has increased almost 3x while the passenger growth is less than 50%; the cost of living has risen at least by 30%. The rikshaw pullers/drivers have been forced to live in sub-human conditions.
The only lure that has kept them in the city is a better future for their children. If they are assured of MNREGA wage and city like education in their villages, they would have migrated long back. While making a strategy for farm sector growth, it is important to note the following:
(a)   The employment elasticity of growth in manufacturing, agriculture and construction sectors has been decreasing consistently. This trend shall only accelerate in future. Most of the growth shall come from higher productivity through automation, innovation and consolidation. Elimination of redundancies and economies of scale shall lead the growth effort. The number of jobs, especially unskilled and low skill jobs shall remain limited.
(b)   Implementation of a common GST, nationwide agriculture market, ecommerce, automation (AI) etc., are leading to business consolidation in a major way. This may potentially eliminate millions of unskilled and low skill jobs in next decades of or so.
(c)    The historical transition of farm workers to industry during the developing stage of growth may not work in the current Indian context. The so called developed economies have transited the labor from farm to factories, when industry and mining were still labor intensive and global competition was not much. The productivity gains were immediate and tangible. It is no longer the case. The industry in India is already capital intensive. Even traditional labor intensive industries like gems & jewellery, textile, leather, mining and construction are becoming increasingly automated to stay viable against the global competition. Emulating China model may not work in India, as our political and economic model is entirely different. Moreover, the skill and training requirement for modern industry do not allow a straight farm to factory transition. So the options get limited to unskilled construction sector jobs and building industry around farms where the skill of the farmers could be suitable employed.
While MNREGA and ambitious rural road program is taking care of unskilled construction jobs, there is little effort to take factories to farms.
The ambitious Make in India program mostly aims to substitute imports. We are trying to compete with manufacturing powerhouses like China, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. This defies the basic principle of making economic decisions, viz., everyone should do what they can do best to optimize the resource utilization.
....to continue tomorrow

Friday, May 22, 2020

Farm sector economics in India

Continuing from yesterday (see here)
Before planning for any reform in the India's form sector, it is critical to understand the key characteristics of the India's farm sector. To be successful, any strategy, plan, policies and programs must be in congruence with such characteristics. Unfortunately, most of the policy initiatives and programs implemented in past couple of decades have not been congruent with the characteristics of the farm sector.
The following are some of the typical characteristics of the India's farm sector which have been hindering the growth and profitability of the sector and large proportion of population associated with the farming and allied activities.
Farm sector of India
As per the 6th Economic Census (2014) and Agriculture Census of India (2017), and NSSO (2013) data the following are the broad contours of the farm sector of India:
Non-farm activities
1.    There are about 3.5cr rural commercial (non-farm) establishments in India. Out of these only 1.3cr are engaged in agriculture related activities (excluding crop production and plantation).
A visit to 10 typical Indian villages will tell you that these establishments primarily include small shops, auto and farm equipment dealerships, services (tailor, auto repair, salon, telecom, medical, coaching, financing, etc.) and petty artisans like potters etc. Livestock constitutes 87% of economic activity in the farm sector
What is important to note is that over 60% non-farm commercial establishments are directly impacted by farm sector, even though farm sector contributes about 15% to GDP.
About two third of all rural households have farming as their principle source of income.
2.    About two third of these establishments are run without any hired worker (Own Account Establishments or OAE). Meaning the households manage the business themselves, mostly from home (36%) or without any fixed structure outside home (18%), e.g., from a cart, vehicle or on pavement. This segment is characterized by huge under-employment, disguised unemployment, low productivity and negative side effects like child labor, pollution, non-compliance with civic rules etc.
3.    The period between 2005-13 saw a massive jump of 56% in OAEs. This was incidentally the period of highest growth for Indian economy. Labor intensive construction in particular recorded very high growth during this period. MNREGA also started during this period. I believe this trend continues after 2013 also.
In my view, most of these OAEs added during 2005-13 were not voluntary. These were direct outcome of diminishing employment elasticity of growth, acquisition of large tracts of agriculture land for infra projects thus rendering a large number of farm labor jobless, at a time when number of people joining workforce is accelerated.
4.    Fewer than 2mn establishment are engaged in handicraft/handloom sector employing about 4mn people. About 80% of these establishments are OAEs.
If we browse through the headlines since 2013, the governments have made significant efforts to damage these sectors, e.g., through encouraging large retail formats and impeding beef trade etc. There is no evidence of any incentive or promotion for Mobile telephony related retail trade activities which have inarguably been the largest provider of incremental employment in past one decade.
Farming activities
The farming sector in India is characterized by (a) small holdings; (b) low productivity and (c) landless farmers.
1.    During FY11 and FY17, the total operated farm area has decreased from 160million hectare to 157.872million hectare; number of holdings have increased from 138.35 million to 146.45 million and the average holding size has decreased from 1.15 hectare to 1.08 hectare. For the context, the average farm size was 2.4hectare in 1971.
2.    The number of small and marginal farmers is rising consistently. UP, Bihar, Maharashtra and MP account for 45% of operational holdings. Bihar has the highest percentage of marginal and small holdings, followed by UP.
3.    14 out of 36 states & UTs account for 91% of the total number of holdings and 88.19% of the operated area. A large majority of states are thus relatively less relevant insofar as the policies and programs relating to farm sector are concerned.
4.    The marginal and small holdings (0 to 2 hectare) account for 86% of total holdings, covering about 47% of the operated area. Medium (2 to 10 hectare) holdings are 13.3% covering 44% of the operated area. Large holdings (above 10 hectare) are merely 0.57% covering 9% of the operated area.
5.    The more important and worrying statistics however is that there are over 100mn Marginal Farmers, with average holding of 0.38 hectare (0.9 acre) accounting for almost 68% of the total farmers. These farmers mostly do sustenance farming, and under no circumstances can earn decent two square meals from farming activity alone. 100mn farm holdings means about 400mn population, assuming an average family of 4. Marginal farmers with average land holding of 1.4 hectare are another 18% or 25mn.
About 47% of the total operated area is covered by these small and marginal farmers. The uneconomical size of holdings, which are getting further divided with the death of each farmer, ensures low productivity, poor financial conditions, no investment capacity and perennial debt in many cases.
6.    There is huge variation in land holding pattern amongst states. For example, AP and TN have largest proportion of landless farmers (more than 50%): Bihar and West Bengal have largest number of marginal farmers (close to 60%), where Rajasthan has the largest share of large farmers. Same agri policy for all these states is bound to fail.
7.    The average monthly rural household income in India is about Rs6426 and average Monthly rural household expenses are about Rs6223. About 85% of households earn less than their expenses. About half of this income comes from cultivation and rest from other activities like labour (including MNREGA) and animal husbandry.
8.    Rural household spend about half their income to buy food.
9.    As per the last available NSSO data, the average per student annual expense for education in rural areas was Rs6788 in 2014. It had risen more than 2.5x since 2008 when it was recorded at Rs2461.
10.  The average hospitalization expense in rural areas is close to Rs17000 per case of hospitalization as per the last available NSSO data
11.  Doubling the farmers' income by 2x in 8years (2014-2022) means a nominal growth rate of 9% CAGR. There is little change in real rural wages over past five years. Rural wages are an important component of rural income and a key determinant of minimum support price for farm produce, the government might need to review its strategy.
 
...to continue on Wednesday, 27 May 2020