Do it yourself

Monday, February 15, 2016

Greed capitulating fast

Thought for the day

"Fear cannot be without hope nor hope without fear."

—Baruch Spinoza (Dutch, 1632-1677)

Word for the day

Despondent (adj)

Feeling or showing profound hopelessness, dejection, discouragement, or gloom

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

Did the legacy of Takshshila decided to stay back in Pakistan in 1947 or it relocated to India?

An RTI query on this has been returned unanswered.

First random thought this morning

School students in Maharashtra read little or nothing about history and legends of South, East or North India. Students in Mumbai cannot even name all North Eastern states. None of the seven 10th class Delhi students I spoke to were aware about a region named Rohilkhand in India. Students in UP, Punjab, Bihar, Rajasthan are mostly ignorant about Thiruvalluvar, Subramanya Bharti, Eknath, and Chandidas.

Confirm this state of affairs with your children and tell me how do we propose to achieve national integration? Sedition.....hummm....could the creators and managers of our education system and policy be framed under Section 124A.

Greed capitulating fast

The greedy trade that refused to budge has suddenly capitulated. The outperformance of broader market since past 27months, has materially corrected in past couple of weeks. Historically, this is a material sign of market cycles bottoming.

The sharp rise in implied volatility witnessed last week, if sustains this week, will be another significant indicator of acceleration in bottoming process.

In strict technical terms, in my view, a monthly close above 7200 in Nifty will establish a cycle bottom at 6850.

The beginning of a new market cycle will be confirmed with a weekly close above 7610.

There are some deep cracks on daily charts that may take upto 8weeks of improved volume and strong momentum to repair. No move of 1% in Nifty on closing basis and 2% on intra basis for 7 consecutive trading sessions will indicate full recovery on daily charts.

The Nifty shorts needs to cover this week.

The Nifty longs may wait for another week.

Friday, February 12, 2016

World is not ending this weekend

Thought for the day

"Whoever hears of fat men heading a riot, or herding together in turbulent mobs? No - no, your lean, hungry men who are continually worrying society, and setting the whole community by the ears."

—Washington Irving (American, 1783-1859)

Word for the day

Zenith (n)

A highest point or state; culmination.

Malice towards none

Why minority schools be exempted from RTE provisions?

Why can't they be told to admit 25% poor students from their respective minority community?

First random thought this morning

My colleagues just returned from an extensive tour of Uttar Pradesh. The State is already into election mode; though elections are due only in Mar'17.

At present the main contest appears to be between the traditional rivals SP & BSP, with SP having marginal edge. BJP is a distant third, nowhere close to its Lok Sabha performance. Congress does not appear in the frame.

People are generally not hopeful of a Bihar like grand alliance. Though many old Congressmen believe that Congress may finally court Mayawati to claim a Bihar like victory.

World is not ending this weekend

"You must liquidate your entire portfolio and raise cash", advised a well-wisher, last evening. "I did it today", he said in a rather assuring tone.

"Ain't it time to buy", I asked curiously.

"No, I heard an expert on television. He says, we are in a bear market. Our markets are going to fall substantially from the current levels. The global scenario is very bad. It is much worse than 2008. You yourself wrote yesterday, that global investors are expecting a deeper recession and prolonged deflationary conditions", he explained with a grim face but very confident voice.

"But what has changed in past three months. You sounded extremely bullish around Diwali", I extended the conversation.

"No, no, no. You do not understand. Oil has plunged to almost US$25/bbl. Over US$500bn debt is seriously under threat. Many European banks are about to go bankrupt. Chinese reserves are eroding fast. There is great rush towards safe haven bonds and gold. Smart investors have already seen black swans", he spoke calmly, as if he was reading some research report from top Wall Street bank.

"Ain't oil at US$25/bbl is a dream come true for India. Except for ONGC and Cairn, everyone else seems to be benefitting from it. Even RIL recorded over US$11/bbl refining margin in last quarter. How did bankruptcies of General Motors, Lehman, Fanny & Freddie, Country First, Bear & Sterns and sale of Merril Lynch, default of Greece etc., affected our domestic economy in 2008-09. Negative yields worldwide may in fact be a great opportunity for capital starved Indian enterprise and government to raise cheaper money. Erosion in Chinese and OPEC reserves may actually turn terms of trade in favor of India. Indian businesses have struggled with adverse terms of trade with these nations for long", I tried to communicate my arguments to seemingly uninterested ears.

"You do not understand markets. When bear strike, bulls go hiding. In these times, for a common investor it is best to move to fringes and stay there till the bulls come back from hiatus", he almost scolded me.

"But when did the bears actually strike in Indian market. Was not it in summer of 2015 when we fell 15% from the March highs. 2015 was in fact one of the few times in past 30yrs when Indian markets have given negative return. So why did you not sell earlier. Why only now", I poked him, risking a contempt charge.

"Do what you want to", he said in a voice of resignation and put the phone down.

I had been worried about markets since May 2014 when it rallied purely on "Hope". That "Hope" has clearly faded, with Nifty below the Modi victory day. However, someone must account for the good work that has been done since then. I strongly believe that world is not about to end this weekend. But who cares for my belief.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

We are already half way up!

Thought for the day

"There is certain relief in change, even though it be from bad to worse! As I have often found in traveling in a stagecoach, that it is often a comfort to shift one's position, and be bruised in a new place."

—Washington Irving (American, 183-1859)

Word for the day

Nonce (n)

The present, or immediate, occasion or purpose (usually used in the phrase for the nonce).

Malice towards none

I am sure not many Indians would share Shane Warne's sentiments towards Steve Waugh!

First random thought this morning

Have you ever been afraid of saying or writing something, thinking someone might have said or written the same thing before.

I have always been afraid.

But now, after so many years of living under constant fear, I have accepted that there is nothing that has not been said, written or done before.

Plagiarism, copyrights, patents and originality is all farce.

We are already half way up!

As per various estimates, globally over US$7tr worth of government bonds are trading at zero or negative yield, meaning holders of these bonds expect to receive less money in interest and principle payments than the money they are paying today to buy these bonds. Japanese government benchmark 10yr securities are latest entrants to the club. Besides, an alarmingly large amount of bonds are trading at yields below 1%. Many of these bonds are longer maturity (5yrs or more) bonds.

Zero or sub-zero yields on bonds implies, holders of these bonds are expecting no inflation, no growth and permanent QE for a really long period of time. For records, In 2008 there was no bond at zero or negative yield and people were expecting hyper-inflation and EMs, especially BRICS, growing at high single digits.

As per the recent report on consumer sentiments by Nielsen, "More than half (55%) of respondents around the world believed they were in recession in the fourth quarter of 2015, which increased slightly from the start of that year (53%).

Given my limited knowledge of the global market and investors' behavior, I am failing to understand how one could panic with this benchmark of expectations and sentiments, unless one is anticipating a much deeper recession and prolonged deflation in the investment strategy. Of course, considering the excesses of governments and central bankers in past one decade, it is not at all difficult to fathom such eventuality.

But the mute point is what would bring the world out of this deep pit?

Historically, major wars, significant productivity gains from innovations and new technologies, and positive changes in demography have driven the recovery from great recessions.

In most of the instances, recovery has resulted in material adjustment in the global terms of trade and rebalancing of strategic power equations.

Whatever I am reading and listening, I do not get a sense of any of these eventualities being factored in investors' anticipation.

We are witnessing one of the largest immigration in the human history. This will change demography of the west materially, sooner than later. The tremendous gains made from innovation in energy space and use of internet in past one decade are there for everyone to see. Post WWI, terrorism has perhaps killed more people than anything else. The war on terrorism is at its peak. Rogue elements in Iraq, Iran, Libya, Afghanistan, Sudan, Nicaragua etc. have been largely neutralized. The pressure on the remaining pockets like Syria, Pakistan, Yemen, North Korea is rising every day.

Huge transfer of wealth is taking place from oil producing countries to the oil consumers. This reverses one of the major economic trend in post WWII era. CNY has already entered IMF reserve currency basket. The world which looked uni-polar post end of cold war, is suddenly multi-polar.

So in my view, the worst has already happened, and we are already in corrective phase. The panic in bond market may be just a vote of no confidence in unconventional strategies of central banks...more on this later

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Douse the fire, and make house fireproof - II

Thought for the day

"The idol of today pushes the hero of yesterday out of our recollection; and will, in turn, be supplanted by his successor of tomorrow."

—Washington Irving (American, 183-1859)

Word for the day

Aeromancy (n)

The prediction of future events from observation of weather conditions.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

Do you trust Headley?

First random thought this morning

After living 7years in Mumbai, I shifted back to Delhi last year.

Personally, I do not find any perceptible difference in the air quality of Mumbai and Delhi. My young kids haven't have any notable respiratory complication in past one year. I do not suffocate during my morning walks or evening strolls on the roadside. My neighbors have got their lungs screened last weekend, out of paranoia. Doctors found no trace of toxins everyone is claiming to be abundantly present in the city's air.

The website of Delhi Development Authority (DDA) still claims that Delhi is "the greenest capital city" in the world. CBI may investigate whether there is a major scam behind all this!

Douse the fire, and make house fireproof - II

In past three decades, the steel and textile industries in India have been a regular pain for the banking sector; responsible for demise of development institutions like ICICI, IDBI, IFCI and UTI. Though the current credit cycle is led by power and infrastructure sector - steel (including mining) is no less a pressure a point even now.

A forensic study of the problems of the steel and textile industries, to determine the causes of frequent relapse, would be in order. It is especially critical in view of the virtually painless growth of capital intensive automobile, telecom and pharma sectors. These sectors have managed the global competition and grown without much protection from government.

In fact, so far the entire new economy (euphemism for information technology, media, telecom and related services) has not been much of a trouble for the banking system. We did not hear about any major defaults in the aftermath of dotcom crash at beginning of this millennium. Even a major event like Satyam, in later years, did not leave any scar on the banking system. Capital intensive telecom industry has grown leaps and bounds in past two decades, without bothering the banking system at all.

In past few years ecommerce sector has been logging high growth. Most of this industry has been financed by risk capital. Banking system, a major beneficiary of the growth in the sector, has not have much to bother about.

I find the "large employer" excuse for continuous protection to steel and textile sectors, much less persuasive now. I know for sure, incrementally telecom sector has been the largest employment creator in the country. Automobile and pharma sectors also do not lag much behind.

I have few questions bothering me. For example,-

(a) Isn't it a good time to tell the errant entrepreneurs in steel and textile sectors to set their house in order, become globally competitive or shut shops? My gut feeling is that their total economic contribution to the economy would not be more than the value of damage they must have inflicted to the economy in all these years, in terms of bad loans, disruptions, labor unrest, litigation, etc.

(b) The growth in telecom sector may plateau in next few years. There are indications that revenue growth may no longer match the rise in costs. The spectrum auction next fiscal will increase the exposure of banking sector to telecom industry significantly. Do RBI, banks, industry and the government have a plan there?

(c) The first round of elimination in ecommerce has already begun. This will only accelerate as the industry matures. Though the direct exposure of banking system to the sector may be low. But indirect exposure could be serious - housing, auto, education and other personal loans to people who will lose their jobs. What's the plan there?

(d) The push to Start ups may entail larger participation of banking sector. Have we developed a robust screening and due diligence mechanism to select only the right kind of start ups for promotion? Or we plan to fund all and then count losses?

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Douse the fire, and make house fireproof

Thought for the day

"They who drink beer will think beer."

—Washington Irving (American, 183-1859)

Word for the day

Alpenglow (n)

A reddish glow often seen on the summits of mountains just before sunrise or just after sunset.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

The reaction of the global community to every misadventure of Kim is a surety that no one is prepared for a bigger war, and it's not happening in foreseeable future.

First random thought this morning

A full scale Sino-Indian partnership can solve many of world's problems today. Capital starved India could benefit from idle factories and decongested ports of China. Demand starved China could benefit from most confident Indian consumers. Indians could learn discipline and austerity from Chinese commoners. Chinese could learn English and democracy from Indians.

With more than one third of global population, they both could together dominate the global markets and politics.

But how do we do away with history of mistrust? Utopian thought...duh!

Douse the fire, and make house fireproof

Continuing with the efforts to protect domestic steel industry, last week the government prescribed minimum import price for 173 steel products.

The primary objective of the measure is to protect domestic steel producers from dumping of cheap produce by global competitors. The collateral benefits will accrue to the banking industry saddled with huge amount of loans to the domestic steel industry.

For an insider the measure might be necessary and unavoidable given the financial stress steel industry is facing and the extent of banking sector exposure to the industry that would have gone bad but for this measure.

But sitting at an arm's length, it appears an act of black mailing and arm twisting by large steel producers, who judged demand growth wrongly and rushed to set up new capacities. No surprises if the bankers who extended huge amount of loans, apparently without due diligence, to these steel czars are also found in cahoots.

Thinking philosophically, prescription of minimum import price for steel products, appears illogical and incongruent with the vision of the government.

First, it is an impediment to the Make in India mission of the government. In words of Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC) imposition of minimum import price on certain steel products will have a "serious debilitating" impact on the sectors' exports which are already declining.

The introduction of minimum import price (MIP) on steel products will raise the cost of raw materials for engineering products by about 6-10%, EEPC said in a statement.

"Segments like auto and auto parts, industrial and electrical machinery, products of MSME sector, which in any case have low margins and are facing cut throat competition will face sudden escalation in raw material price, giving a further jolt to the exporters," it added.

The move would also have an inflationary impact on the entire manufacturing sector, it said, adding "the government must provide steel at global competitive prices."

Second, the practice may encourage over-invoicing of imports to evade additional duties. This will defeat the government's mission to minimize the incidence of black money in the economy. Higher cost for domestic economy and flight of capital by way of rise in hawala transactions have been the outcome historically.

Third, and the worst, it may not help the steel industry much as, the measure may result in an inverted duty structure for many engineering products, making import for manufactured items more beneficial rather than importing raw material and making it here.

We have seen similar situation in edible oil and tyres.

...to continue

Monday, February 8, 2016

Nifty: greed still dominating sentiment

Thought for the day

"I've had it with you and your emotional constipation!"

—Washington Irving (American, 183-1859)

Word for the day

Desiderata (plural noun)

Things wanted or needed; the plural of desideratum.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

The advertizing corporates are turning intolerant towards Amir Khan.

Will a celebrated career end for absolutely wrong reason?

First random thought this morning

A visit to the Auto Expo in Grater NOIDA last weekend made four things clear: (1) The aspirations of young India are really flying high; (2) Indians' preference for larger and better cars is growing with each new model launch; (3) The Indian car market is becoming seriously competitive; and (4) Our administration is seriously unequipped and under-trained for holding large events.

Nifty: greed still dominating sentiment

The current market cycle started in September 2013. Like any other bull market, the broader markets have massively outperformed the benchmark indices in this cycle too.

Though the two corrective phases, one in August-September 2015 and the other in January-February 2016 have reduced the outperformance to some extent, however there is still nothing to suggest that the market cycle that started in summer of 2013 is coming to an end.

Juxtaposed to persistently lower volatility, increasing participation of domestic investors despite consistent FPI selling in past many weeks, good response to IPOs, and mostly positive market breadth, it could be said that greed is still the dominant sentiment in the market and no collapse is imminent, save for a Lehman type global event.

As I highlighted last week, in strict technical sense, Nifty has already secured a midterm bottom around 7200 and looks set for an up move on monthly charts. After trading with higher intraday volatility short term charts have also cooled down a bit. A weekly close above 7610 will set market up for a decent up move. Anything below 7350 is a buying opportunity for me.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Governance by ambivalence - II

Thought for the day

"Reason has always existed, but not always in a reasonable form."

—Karl Marx (German 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Kerflooey (adv)

To cease functioning, especially suddenly and completely. E.g., As soon as the storm hit, every light in town went kerflooey.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

What should the government aim for - "gender equality" or gender neutrality"?

First random thought this morning

Last week I received more than 20 "Forwards" of a Whatsapp message celebrating announcement of our National Anthem as "the best anthem" in the world by UN!

I was not surprised by this ridiculous claim or the celebrations over it. I have been witnessing this hubris since my childhood. What bothered me was the people who were spreading this message. These were CAs, IIM graduates, senior bankers, principal of a prestigious private school, et. al.

On the positive side, I can now explain many election results better and can forecast many more even better!

Governance by ambivalence - II

Last month, a village panchayat in Aligarh (UP) decided that farmers already staggering under the burden of a bad crop and loans should not be expected to continue the tradition of Mrityubhoj, the ritual feeding of people on the 13th day of death. (see here)

The Panchayat said that only 10% of farmers and villagers have 20 bighas (~1 hectare) and above of land, the rest have only 10 bighas (~0.5 hectare) or less. They should, therefore, be freed "from expectations of feeding people, a ritual that often involves huge expenses.

The event, though not reported prominently in media, is very significant in the overall socio-economic context of the country.

It is common knowledge that death, birth and marriages are three most important reasons for household indebtedness in India. This is more true in case of Indians living in rural areas, but also applies to the city dwellers.

Many of these traditions and rituals have perhaps outlived their relevance and have serious economic and social consequences.

For example on economic side, these practices have been seen leading, inter alia, to (a) wasteful expenditure by way of elaborate and unaffordable ceremonies and feasts; (b) misallocation of capital, e.g., by way of buying gold and avoidable (often prohibitively expensive) debt; (c) misallocation of labor, e.g., by way of bonded labor and unnecessary migration.

On the social side, malice like female infanticide, dowry deaths, exploitation by money lenders and bonded labor, mindless migration to cities, oppression of poor and lower caste people, human trafficking, could trace their genesis in these practices and rituals.

I have no qualms in saying that any economic reform program cannot be effective if it does not deal with these aspects of socio-economic milieu.

Unfortunately, so far political expediency and shortsightedness has constricted our political establishment from addressing these issues. On the contrary, we have seen many instances of elected leaders encouraging and promoting such practices.

Another social issue that has serious economic consequences is the issue of women rights. The recent agitations over women's right to enter places of worship.

What I understood from my discussion with some administrators, law enforcers and politicians is that (a) everyone is approaching the issue from the three angles of religious sanctity, gender equality and social acceptance. Whereas, in my view, given the modern context, the government should be working towards achieving the goal of "gender neutrality".

So rather than providing for gender based reservation and concessions, the ultimate goal should be to eliminate the Gender column from all forms & documents; and obliterate all gender based references from the statute books. In the interim a firm stand should be taken towards anything that is found discriminating on the basis of gender (of course including the 3rd gender).

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Governance by ambivalence

Thought for the day

"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce."

—Karl Marx (German 1818-1883)

Word for the day

Aposiopesis (n)

A sudden breaking off in the midst of a sentence, as if from inability or unwillingness to proceed.

(Source: Dictionary.com)

Malice towards none

Why denial of VISA to Anupam Kher by Pakistan should be an point of discussion in India?

First random thought this morning

As per media reports, the government may consider asking cash rich PSEs like Coal India and NALCO to buy back shares from the government. This will help the government to meet its disinvestment target.

While there could be a valid argument that such buyback will enhance RoE of the companies and hence eventually benefit the minority shareholders. But this argument does not settle the moral and ethical issues.

Rather, the disbursal of cash through dividend would be more appropriate and just from minority shareholder viewpoint.

Governance by ambivalence

One of my dear friends quipped the other day that "Either PM Modi is a great student, or the only student left in the country, as everyone is out there to teach him a lesson!"

Listening to some ministers in the union cabinet and BJP spokespersons, I find that my friend is not alone in his exasperation over criticism of the Prime Minister. They all believe this criticism is actually not due to him.

I however beg to differ from them. I find this exasperation yet another sign of the ambivalence of BJP and the government on many critical issues of social and economic importance. I count the confusion created by this ambivalence amongst the reasons for socio-economic chaos the country is witnessing at present.

Let me explain it in some detail.

PM Modi likes to ask questions in all his public speeches. He asks questions very emphatically and repeatedly. From the day he assumed the highest executive office, his endeavor has been to seek suggestions and advice through various portals and forum. If PM himself wants to have a participative democracy, it is natural for people to give advice and suggestions. The point of ambivalence however is that if you want to learn from people's experience, they will teach you a lesson, then why get exasperated!

There are many instances of ambivalent standpoints, that have created avoidable confusion amongst investors and citizens alike.

The government wants India to become a preferred tourist and investment destination for the world. But most of its constituents are stuck in medieval mindset insofar as lifestyle is concerned. The ambivalence on the issue of sale & consumption of products like liquor, tobacco & beef and decriminalization of same sex relationships is however confounding. How could one expect foreigners to call India home under these circumstances.

Would it not be more appropriate if the government restricts its role to enforcing law and order and leave these issues to the discretion of people? If at all, BJP can run a public campaign to "educate" people about "bad" impact of these products and such behavior.

Alternatively, if the government is sure about its stand, why not initiate a public debate, conduct a referendum and bring a constitutional amendment to ban production, sale and consumption of all "sinful" products and services.

Similarly, there is a great deal of emphasis on innovation, technical knowledge and modern life style through programs like Startup India, Skill India, Smart Cities, Clean India, Digital India. However, there is little effort on modernizing the primary education system. On the contrary it is common to hear some minister or the other advocating traditional methods of imparting primary education implemented originally by Lord Macaulay.

...to continue tomorrow