Do it yourself

The 3-day bi-monthly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) begins today. This would be the last meeting before presentation of the Union Budget for the year FY26. The members of the MPC would draw inputs from the latest national accounts (2QFY25 GDP data); October 2024 inflation data; October 2024 Professional managers’ survey results; September 2024 IIP estimates; November 2024 PMI and core sector growth data; April-October fiscal balance data; global developments (political and geopolitical); global inflation, rates, currency and market trends; expert opinions and views of the members of MPC; and assessment of the current and future situation provided by the staff of RBI. The statement of the MPC on macroeconomic outlook and likely direction of the monetary policy will be a key input in preparation of the Union Budget for FY26. However, the market participants’ interest in the MPC meeting appears limited to whether, or not, at 10AM on 6 th ...

In recent days the following three global trends have evoked much interest amongst market participants: 1.     The production, consumption and import of commodities in China have increased materially. 2.     The USD weakness is persisting. The China letting CNY appreciate against USD is noteworthy. 3.     BP in its yearly outlook virtually declared "peak oil" demand, stating that the oil demand growth may not be seen through 2050. These three trends are important in my view as these could materially influence the markets in short term. For past two decades, China has been a major driver of the commodities' demand and hence prices in the global market. The slowdown in Chinese economy in past 5years has led to correction in commodity prices, impacting a large number of commodity driven economies like Australia, Canada, OPEC countries, Brazil etc. This is cited as one of the reasons of sustained deflationary pressure on US, Japan and...