Do it yourself

An informal survey of about 40 market participants, conducted in the past 4 days, indicates that unlike the previous budgets presented by the finance minister Ms. Nirmala Sitharaman, the market’s expectations from the budget to be presented today might be negligible. In fact, most participants appear to be praying that the finance minister shall skip the investment and capital markets from her budget provisions altogether. No change in capital gains taxation is all they would wish for. One veteran portfolio manager summarized the broader market sentiment in one simple sentence - “The boat is in rough waters. All that I could wish for is that FM does not rock it at this time.” I would read the budget presented by the finance minister later today and assimilate the market’s reaction to it, keeping this in mind. How to read the budget? The budget should be read and analysed by investors, as they would read and analyse the annual report of a company they are invested in. If we consider Ind...

  Strategy review 1HFY23 Market performance For the Indian markets, the first half of the current financial year (1HFY23) has been noteworthy in many respects. While the benchmark indices have remained boringly range bound (not unexpectedly  see here ), the shift in sector preferences has been material. Also as expected volatility has remained low to moderate and market breadth has narrowed down. Some key highlights of the market performance in 1HFY23 could be listed as below: Equity Markets ·           Benchmark Nifty lost 2.1%, sharply outperforming the peers from emerging as well as developed markets. For example, S&P500 (US) lost ~20% in this period; while STOXX600 (Euro Area) was down over 15%. ·           The foreign flows were majorly negative in 5 out of 6 months. Overall foreign portfolio investors sold ~US$20bn worth of Indian equities. Most of this selling was absorbed by d...