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State of global economy and trade

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Global economy The year 2020 witnessed the global economy contracting by 3.5%, the worst peacetime performance after the great depression. IMF has recently forecasted a “strong” (5.5%) revival in 2021 and “normalization” (4.2%) in 2022. Which essentially means the global economy would be growing at less than 1% CAGR over two years (2020-2021). This rather long pause in global growth means serious setback to the development goals of poverty elimination, climate change and inclusion. The fact that this “pause” in growth could only be achieved with trillions of dollars in fiscal and monetary stimulus, highlights that the legacy of global financial crisis (GFC) and subsequent quantitative easing might have materially weakened the growth drivers of the global economy in past few decades, e.g., development of human capital, globalization of trade and commerce, poverty alleviation, productivity growth, etc. The new global survey of 295 economists from 79 countries, commissioned by Oxfam, ...