Do it yourself

In my view, the stock market outlook in India, in the short term of one year, is a function of the following seven factors: (1)   Macroeconomic environment (2)   Global markets and flows (3)   Technical positioning (4)   Corporate earnings and valuations (5)   Return profile and prospects for alternative assets like gold, real estate, fixed income, and cryptocurrencies, etc. (6)   Greed and fear equilibrium (7)   Perception of the political establishment The outlook for these seven factors for the next twelve months is as follows, in my view— Macroeconomic environment – Neutral My outlook for the likely macroeconomic environment in FY25 is as follows: (a)   Inflation: Consumer inflation may average well within the RBI tolerance band of 4% to 6%. However, food inflation may continue to be erratic and cause occasional violations of the upper range. (b)   Fiscal Deficit: The fi...

 Si tting on the banks of river Betwa, overlooking the majestic Orchha palace and Lord Raja Ram’s temple, I had a fascinating talk with two farmers from a nearby village. During the course of our discussion, I learnt that they are real brothers; have a family of 11 people, including grandfather, parents and five children aged 3yr to 13yrs including three sons and two daughters; own less than one acre of land and have been tilling another acre on rent; besides they own one cow. They mostly plant wheat during rabi season and vegetables in kharif and intermediate period. Caste wise they were from Kushwaha community that falls in other backward class (OBC) category. Their families are mostly dependent on government schemes for ration, education of children and healthcare. They live in a semi pucca house constructed five years ago with the help of government subsidy. They have six bank accounts for their family members, mostly used to receive various benefits from the government and o...