Key economic trends (Elara Capital)
· Deflationary impulses seem entrenched in the global economy. We believe global inflation may surprise on the downside through rest of CY23E.
· We see the Fed pausing even in July 2023 meet – Expect the first rate cut by the Fed in Dec-23.
· Historically, equities perform better in a hike cycle than a cut cycle. Bonds are a better bet in run up to rate cut cycle. Gold is the preferred commodity asset through both hike and cut cycles. The USD-INR usually fails to capitalize on the overall EM FX risk on sentiment in the run-up to a rate cut by the Fed.
· Deflationary producer prices in China suggest weakening growth in G4 – the US, the EU, the UK and Japan. We do not rule out a sub 5% GDP growth in China in 2023E. (base case 5.2%)
· India remains in sweet spot compared with the global economy. FY24E GDP is likely at 6-6.2% YoY, CPI inflation to average 4.9% and CAD likely at 1.2-1.3% of GDP. Expect the first rate cut from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in Q4FY24.
· Expect India 10-year yield at 6.75% by March 2024E, led by low inflation, rate cut by the MPC and lower supply by the states. See US 10-year yield at sub 3% by March 2024E.
China outlook: Muddling through (Danske Bank)
After a strong start to 2023, economic data disappointed in Q2 and we have lowered our GDP forecast for this year to 5.8% from 6.2%. For the rest of 2023 our scenario implies muddling through with annualized quarterly growth around 41⁄2-5% underpinned by moderate stimulus. In 2024 our forecast is reduced to 4.8% from 5.0%.
• The main engines of growth are set to be private service consumption and a gradual recovery in construction and private manufacturing investments. We expect export growth to remain weak as global goods demand stays soft.
• While a leading role in many green technologies benefit China, a long list of medium term economic challenges are present, which creates uncertainty about China’s outlook. However, we still look for economic growth to be able to reach around 41⁄2% over the next 5-10 years due to a strong focus on investments in education and technology and continued support to the private sector.
• Geopolitical tensions are set to continue with intense rivalry between US and China. However, we still see a low probability of war on Taiwan in the next 2-3 years as the costs of a war would be enormous for all involved parties. In the long term the risk is real, though. Look out for Taiwan election in early 2024.
New uncertainties: While China’s re-opening rebound in Q1 was stronger than expected, the recent economic data have slowed more than projected. In effect, we have lowered our forecast back below 6% for this year. Especially manufacturing and the housing market lost pace in April and May while the service sector has continued to grow at a more robust pace reflecting pent-up demand from the zero-covid lockdown years.
The bumpy road of the recovery leaves a high degree of un-certainty about the outlook. However, our baseline scenario is for policy makers to aim for growth around 41⁄2-5% rest of the year and that stimulus will be calibrated to hit this goal. The strong service sector activity is providing decent job growth and more support to wage growth, leaving a decent picture for household income gains. Hence we expect private consumption to continue to underpin a moderate recovery. The manufacturing sector is challenged by a weak external environment but moderate growth in investments and consumption is expected to underpin manufacturing growth at or slightly above potential growth. The construction sector is still struggling but we have witnessed a lift in home sales compared to the very low levels last year, and we should see this gradually feed through to a rise in housing starts.
In the medium term, there is little doubt that China’s potential growth rate has come down as China faces challenges on many fronts: high debt level in key sectors, falling labour supply, Western technology restrictions, geopolitical uncertainty and a difficult transition to consumption driven growth. Our baseline scenario is that China will be able to grow around 4% on average over the next 5-10 years. While clearly lower than in the past, it will still make Chinese economy significantly bigger and in our view lead to a rise in the middle class by 3-400 million people over the next decade.
Deficit monsoon and delay in kharif sowing, but not yet alarming (Nomura Securities)
First fortnight of June-23 witnessed monsoon deficit – 37% below the long period average (LPA). The onset of monsoon in 2023 was delayed by a week with Kerala receiving the first rain showers around 8 June-23. While the formation of cyclone Biparjoy resulted in surplus rainfall in the states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, it weakened westerly and south-westerly winds delaying the advancement of monsoon in Maharashtra (one of the key agrarian states in West India).
No impact in the north India region: North India agrarian states (such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, etc.) witnessed a large deficit to their LPAs; however, it is key to note that historically, the onset of monsoon in North India takes place in July and deficit monsoon conditions in June are a normal phenomenon in the region.
Pick-up in rains likely over next fortnight: India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Skymet weather team both have called for pick-up in rains over the second half of June-2023, with the advancement of monsoon in western and central parts of India; moreover, they have alluded normal monsoon conditions pan India during the first fortnight in July-2023.
Delay in kharif sowing, but not yet alarming: In 2023, the agriculture season witnessed some delay in rabi harvest in April; the delayed onset of monsoon has also resulted in some delay in the sowing of kharif crops. While the kharif sowing data for the first fortnight of June is much below 2022 levels, sowing activities are expected to pick up over the next 3-4 weeks with normalcy in monsoon conditions.
Strong reservoir levels to support irrigation: While over 65% of Indian agricultural lands are dependent on monsoon for cultivation of kharif crops (paddy, maize, soyabean, cotton, sugarcane, etc.), it is important to note that the reservoir levels are above the 10-year average and should play a crucial role if monsoon falters.
No signs of softness in consumer demand visible yet with delayed onset of
monsoon: While rural market demand has been showing signs of recovery over the past two quarters, the pace of improvement has been gradual due to the delay in agriculture activities. We note the full benefit of the harvest money is yet to be seen translating into product / consumer demand. Further, the stable / softening raw material prices have resulted in price cuts across all large FMCG categories; we believe this will likely act as a stimulus to drive volume growth in the rural markets. Hence, we do not expect any softness in consumer demand with no ebbing effect on sentiments due to monsoon conditions.
India Durables and Electricals (Jefferies India)
Softer offtake in Apr-May23, also impacted by unseasonal rains. But demand has improved in H1-Jun. Transition to new BEE norms is largely done for AC & Fans, and older inventory is liquidated.
Channel inventory is normal at ~3 weeks. No major price hikes in Q1, expect +1-2% in Cables & Wires (copper pass-through).
Changing Weather Patterns Influence Demand: We spoke to ~10 channel partners pan-India. Many cited weaker offtake in Apr-May23 due to softer consumer sentiment and unseasonal rains in many parts. But Jun'23 saw better demand for summer-centric products i.e. ACs, Coolers, Fans etc.
1) Fans market has now transitioned to new BEE norms. Sales have largely normalized, with higher shift to premium/BLDC models - increasing awareness for energy efficiency.
2) Cables & Wires demand stayed strong for most dealers, with minimal impact of pricing action. Offtake here is mainly driven by construction and capex / infra projects.
3) Washing Machines demand has not seen any material uptick in the last few months, with flattish sales YoY. Q1 (Summer) is seasonally weak qtr.
4) Appliances: Many dealers cited healthy demand trends, esp in Mixer Grinders, Chimneys and Hobs.
5) Water Heaters saw mixed trends with some dealers highlighting better offtake due to unseasonal rains. A few dealers cited higher inquiries, but unavailability of SKUs in summer season.
6) Weareables & Hearables demand good.
Inventory now Largely Normal: AC channel stocking commenced in Feb-Mar23. Muted traction in Mar (unseasonal rains) led to higher than normal inventory in Apr for most dealers, which subsequently declined in May-Jun as offtake improved. Now inventory is at normal levels (~3 weeks) for most dealers, as summer season ends. In Fans, inventory has normalized post BEE transition, wherein inventory of old models has largely liquidated.
Cables and wires inventory is currently normal level (~2 weeks), as supply is typically received
within a week for most dealers.
No Major Price Hikes in Q1: Post BEE transition, prices were hiked by avg 2-5% in new AC models and avg 5-8% in new Fan models in Q4FY23. Air Coolers have seen price hike of 3-5% at the start of summer season. But since then, there has been no material price hikes in Q1FY24, as many input costs have softened. With rise in LME copper prices (+5% from 10May'23), Cables & Wires category has hiked prices by avg 1-2% in May and more hikes could be seen in coming weeks.
Competitive Landscape: In ACs, post BEE transition, LG models are offering higher energy savings (technology) vs many peers. Lloyd (HAVL) sales have been good in price-conscious consumer segment. VOLT sales are healthy in the 1.0-1.5 ton category.
Retail fuel price cut an overhang for CGD stocks (Nirmal Bang Equities)
For the imminent cut in retail petrol/diesel prices. We believe this would reduce the tailwinds for OMCs. Such a cut also poses a risk to CGD companies as the latter would be forced to cut CNG pump prices to maintain CNG growth rate, which entails a sacrifice in EBITDA/scm. Such a cut and the steep YoY decline in GRMs could dent the potential upside to OMC earnings in FY24, implied at current juicy retail margins.
Impending cut in MS/HSD prices poses risk to CNG business outlook: The impending cut in MS/SHD pump prices is likely to eat into the cost savings offered by CNG over MS/HSD, currently at 40%/20%. This combined with the fact that the APM gas price is likely to remain fixed at the ceiling of US$6.5/mmbtu (GCV), as per the latest gas pricing formula, leaves no elbow room for CGD companies.
This leaves IGL and MGL vulnerable to either a hit on margins if they seek to maintain growth or cut in CNG volume growth assuming they aim to preserve margins. GGL is relatively less impacted as its share of CNG is under 30% vs more than 75% for IGL/MGL. If OMCs were to cut MS/HSD prices by Rs1-5/litre at current crude price levels, it implies 3.3-16.5%/2.3-11.3% hit on IGL’s/MGL’s FY24E EPS vs 1.3%-6.3% hit on GGL’s FY24E EPS – assuming the cut in CNG price from Aug’23 post 1QFY24 results of OMCs.
The steep correction in diesel spreads from muti-year highs by more than 50% to ~US$15/bbl combined with the decline in crude oil by 10.8% YTD and 34.5% YoY has resulted in average retail fuel margin surging to ~Rs7.2/litre in 1QFY24 vs ~Rs2.5-3/litre in 4QFY23 – petrol/diesel retail margin per litre is estimated at Rs5.2/Rs7.9. This is likely to support hefty growth in earnings for OMCs in 1QFY24, as per our first cut estimates, and perhaps in 2QFY24 as well, depending on when OMCs decide to cut pump prices of MS/HSD.
2HCY23 revival in China demand clouds retail margin outlook: IEA and other global oil watchdogs expect a revival in China’s economy to spur growth in oil demand ahead of supply in 2HCY23 and thereby boost oil prices. This is a concern cited by OMCs to go slow on the current demand for a cut in Indian retail pump prices, as a future rise in oil prices post such a cut could again put pressure on marketing margins and earnings for OMCs. NBIE Brent oil forecast for FY24E/FY25E is US$75/bbl and US$70/bbl. This compares with FY23/4QFY23 average of US$95.3/bbl and US$81/bbl. However, a recent Reuters report shows that diesel and petrol exports from China in May’23 were up 4x YoY to 0.6mn tonnes and by 67% YoY to 1.36mn tonnes, respectively. This is due to the persistent slowdown in China’s property/industrial sectors and refining throughput in May’23, nudging the record figure of 14.9mn bpd in March’23.
Volatile refining margins may find limited solace from Russian crude: The GRMs reported by OMCs are likely to see a significant decline YoY in FY24 due to the steep decline of 47.2% in diesel spreads to US$15//bbl in 1QFY24 from 4QFY23. Even with the share of Russian crude indicated at 15% in HPCL and more than 30% in BPCL/IOC, the implied savings of ~US$1.2/bbl to US$2.4/bbl is unlikely to reverse the YoY decline in GRMs. 1QFY24 petrol/diesel spread over crude is down 43%/60% YoY to US$15.5 per bbl/US$15.1 per bbl. The pressure on OMCs to cut prices overlooks the impact of declining oil and fuel spreads, which imply potential inventory losses that could eat into the gains in retail margins from the lower crude prices.
Textile: Global retailers underpin improved inventory position by EoY (JM Financial)
Global retailers continue to lighten their inventory position: Global retailers during their latest earnings have continued their efforts to reduce the excess inventory on books. GAP saw inventory decline of 27% YoY in the latest quarter and expects inventory to be down significantly more than sales as compared to FY22. TJX and Nike (apparel segment) given their sharp focus on liquidating excess inventory have been able to achieve lower inventory. Large retailers like Walmart, Target and Costco have also lowered their inventory given their cautious approach towards fresh procurement. The global demand outlook for CY23 continues to be soft.
Indian textile players expect demand revival from 2HFY24: Indian Home textile and apparel exporters expect demand to remain muted in 1HFY24 on account of excess inventory liquidation. Any normalisation of demand in CY24 amidst improved global retailers’ inventory position leaves headroom for export demand recovery by Indian exporters.
‘China + 1’ theme picking pace: China has been losing market share across the world (refer exhi. 3/4) apparel exports aided by rising labour costs and geopolitical tensions. This has led to a potential shift of exports from China towards other countries, creating new opportunities and growth in the other Asian countries for the apparel industry. Some of the biggest brands across the globe have already begun reducing their exposure to China over the past few years. We believe India’s competency across factor cost and a well-established textile ecosystem (across cotton segment) will allow it to benefit from the ‘China+1’ theme.
UK FTA offers additional growth opportunity: UK imports USD$24bn in apparel with India’s share a mere USD$1.4bn. In contrast, UK imports UD$4.5bn from Bangladesh and US$ 6.2bn from China. Indian players have lower market penetration in UK due to tariff disadvantages vs Pakistan, Turkey, and Bangladesh. However, FTA with UK will allow duty free exports to UK, improving India’s competitiveness. A ~20% market gain from China over the next 3-4 years is required to help India near double its exports to UK. Effective implementation of UK FTA could provide a clear runway for double digit revenue CAGR in case of Indian textile exporters over the coming decade.
Commodity deflation to aid margins: Decline in cotton / yarn prices over the last 12 months to the tune of ~40%/33% is likely to aid margins for Indian textile players. Lower demand and arrival of new crop are key reasons for the price correction. Further, improving scale in 2HFY24 will aid margin expansion for textile companies.
Stable duty regime and additional steps by Govt to aid the textile ecosystem: The scheme of RoSCTL that was effective from March 2019, has been extended till March 31, 2024 for exports of apparel/garments and made-ups in order to make the Indian textile sector competitive in the international market. The maximum rate of export rebate for apparel is 6.05%; while for made-ups it is 8.2 per cent. A stable duty regime is likely to benefit the sector. Further, additional initiatives like the PLI’s, Mega Integrated Textile Region and Apparel (MITRA) Parks Scheme and National Technical Textiles Mission will help in creating a conducive textile environment.
De-leveraged balance sheets offers room to chase growth: Indian textile companies have de-leveraged their balance sheet over the past few years offering room to chase growth expected from ‘China+1’ theme playing out and possible UK FTA.
Moderate valuation multiples leaves ample room for multiple re-rating: Textile companies currently trade at moderate valuation of leaving ample room for re-rating as when structural demand drivers (UK FTA/ ‘China+1’) kick-in.
Cement: Start of an upcycle (Antique Stock Broking)
FY24 volume growth could surprise—we now factor in 10% YoY growth Public capex (center, state, and PSUs) comprising 25% of total gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is likely to grow at a healthy 23% YoY in FY24 (ahead of the upcoming Union Election), driving aggregate nominal GFCF growth by a robust ~14.8% YoY. Besides, housing demand recovery is likely in the midst of a multi-year upcycle. Accordingly, FY24 cement demand growth could surprise positively, in our view. With early cement demand trends suggesting near mid-teens YoY growth on a low base for 1QFY24 (5-yr. CAGR of 5.5%), most managements have likely extrapolated this trend and guided/ aspired for >15% YoY volume growth for FY24 during the 4QFY23 earnings call. We now factor higher 10% YoY (5-yr.
CAGR of 4.8%) demand growth for FY24 (vs. 8% earlier) to >440 mtpa leading to 3%-4% upgrade to our FY24-25E volume growth estimate mainly for large companies.
The third consecutive year of high demand (7%–10%), could drive utilization to a 14-year high Demand at 8.5% CAGR vs. 5% supply CAGR over FY22-24E would results in pan-India cement utilization inching up to a 14-year high of 77% and clinker utilization of 80% in FY24. South utilization could cross 65%, while ex-South utilization would inch closer to 84% after 14 years in FY24. Ex-South utilization (excluding 6 mtpa Sanghi and 9 mtpa JPA, which are non-operational/partially operational for FY24) is inching closer to 87%/ 88%. More importantly, our coverage universe as well as UTCEM's utilization increased from an average of 73%/74% during FY20-22 to 81%/83% in FY23 and is likely to inch up further to as high as 83%/88% in FY24-25.
Higher consolidation in the industry
The top 6 companies enjoy 80–85% capacity share across all regions except the South and with more capacity likely to be announced by large companies and with a couple of M&A transactions likely to consummate soon, capacity/market share of large companies is likely to increase further.
Costs side pressure to recede; cost efficiencies to further aid profitability
International petcoke and coal prices are down ~50%-60% from their respective highs and our recent interactions with a few coal traders/ experts suggest the possibility of a further downside. This could translate into cost savings of INR 250-300/ton in FY24. Besides, companies are focused on increasing the share of green energy, alternative fuels, logistic optimization, premiumization, etc. which could further aid profitability. We expect the average EBITDA/ton for our coverage universe to rise from <INR 800/ton in FY23 to ~INR 1,200 by FY25E and even higher beyond FY25E. Our FY24-25E EBITDAs are 5%-10% ahead of consensus. We factor <1% realization CAGR over FY24-25E and see an upside risk to our estimates.
Start of an upcycle; many stocks near life-time high: time to BUY or SELL?
In the past upcycle from FY03–10, industry average EBITDA/ton increased from INR 350/ ton to INR 1,050/ton. Even recently, average EBITDA/ton rose from <INR 900/ton in FY19 to INR 1,200/ton in FY21 aided by higher prices and lower costs. With improving demand, ex-South utilization now high at 84%, increasing capex costs (greenfield), receding cost pressure, higher consolidation and relative price inelastic demand, we remain positive on pricing and expect industry average EBITDA/ton to exceed INR 1,200 beyond FY25E. Long-term average price CAGR has been around 4% and we expect a similar trend to continue beyond FY25 driving increasing trend of EBITDA/ton.
Metals: Signs of revival fade; steel prices correct for the 9th consecutive week (MOFSL)
Long steel, which witnessed a pre-monsoon procurement last week, has come under pressure with prices correcting to Oct’21 levels. Ex-Mumbai benchmark primary long steel prices corrected INR900/t to settle at INR53,500/t.
Reduction in domestic demand from the project segment and a fall in global long steel prices due to weak global housing and infrastructure demand have dragged the domestic prices for long steel products.
Project segment customers are under ‘wait and watch’ mode and they are only undertaking ‘need-based buying’, which has plummeted the list prices further by INR1,000/t below the prevailing market prices.
Flat steel prices that had witnessed a slight uptick last week have been relatively flat WoW at INR55,400/t.
The domestic trade-level prices have inched up by INR300-400/t WoW; however, range-bound export prices have kept the overall prices under check. We had anticipated a price correction of INR1,500-2,000/t across the steel sector and the same is now fully priced in.
The arbitrary price gap in exports between India and China is currently around USD15-20/t (~USD100/t in May’23) and hence, we believe a majority of the downside has been factored in with no major price correction likely in the near term.
However, the near-term outlook remains volatile and highly monitorable with multiple mixed signals in the domestic and international markets.
