Do it yourself

 Notwithstanding the buoyancy in stock market, the economy has shown some clear signs of fatigues in February. The post lock down recovery from September onwards appears to be pausing, as pent up consumer demand has subsided and rise in raw material prices has dampened the sentiments. Some signs of economy pausing could be read from the following: (a)    GST payments in February (for collections in January) have declined after rising for three consecutive months. (b)    E-Way collection in February were also much below the December levels. (c)     Exports have been mostly flat for the month of January and February; while imports have declined from the December levels. (d)    Non food credit growth slowed down further in January. ·          The Industrial credit contracted -1.3% in January. The contraction was led by large industrial credit, which constitutes ~82% of industrial credit and ...

In my discussions with the various market participants in last one year, I have realized that "drivers" and "domestic workers" are perhaps the most influential reference points in their analysis and forecasts of the economy. I have heard many of them proudly alluding to stories how the life in villages has improved in recent years. All the villages have connected to highways through all weather roads. Everyone is getting free money to build pucca houses. Houses in remote villages have got electricity and LPG connections. Children are going to English medium schools. Everyone has a smart phone and internet access. All have a basic bank account. Farmers are selling their crops through nationwide electronic trading platforms. Millions have people got their Ayushman (Health Insurance) cards and can avail free medical treatment in empanelled hospitals, etc. Many popular analysts, investment advisors and fund managers, have famously narrated on social med...